Crap. I've been warning people about this for two years. Here it is.

[WilliamPitt]

One of the most-asked questions I've gotten since 2003 whenever I give a talk about PNAC etc. is whether and/or when we will attack Iran. One of the things I always told people was, "When you start seeing images of the 1979 American hostages in Iran with bags over their heads, you'll know something is on the move." I must have said that 100 times.

Front page of today's Washington Post:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/gallery/2006/01/19/GA2006011903062_metaRefresher.htm

Yes, the anniversary of their release is tomorrow. But still...damn.

[Punkingal]

1. And one of the Iranians looks like the current President....

Is that the only picture they could find?

[LibertyLover]

15. Well, when he was elected

there were allegations that Ahmadinejad had been one of the student leaders involved in the hostage crisis. If he was, then it's not surprising that one of the photos from that period would show him. Truth to tell, I can't remember if he confirmed he had been involved.

[alfredo]

40. It turns out, that wasn't him in the photo.

He took part in the revolution, but I don't remember him being one of the captors. My memory is hazy.

[hang a left]

75. You are right.

Debunked.

[alfredo]

79. there was quite a discussion on his involvement

in the hostage standoff.

[Pryderi]

62. I adjusted the levels so we could get a better look....

<img src="">

[hang a left]

74. you funny

[MrModerate]

2. Well that's creepy . . .

Certainly this administration is given to trotting out symbols with mindless repetition until they become (or the administration convinces itself they've become) a component of the zeitgeist.

I'm hoping you're wrong, and this is just anniversary chatter.

But it's almost certainly true that they're gearing themselves up for some sort of strike on Iran. And this time there is (apparently) a real threat!

[ret5hd]

27. you mean the Iranian oil bourse (selling oil for euros), right?

[MrModerate]

37. Yeah, that too.

But I was referring to the conditions being overripe for World War IV (Or is it V? I've lost count.) as Iran approaches developing its own nuclear weapons.

[ret5hd]

44. You keep telling yourself that nukes are the reason for attacking iran...

if that assuages your concience, but lets look at reality:

If iran was to use a nuke, even one, against someone, anyone, it would be instantly totally undeniably 100% obliterated...never to rise again, even in 100,000 years. never. ever. they know that. we know that. they know we know they know that.

The only possible use they have with a nuke is defensive: to keep somebody else from invading or obliterating them unilaterally.

We said (essentially) the same thing about iraq. Coincidentally (or is it?), iraq had started selling oil in euros. Hmmmm...

From fact to opinion: the only reason we are beating the war-drums about iraq is to protect our economic house-of-cards from collapsing under the weight of a worthless dollar and trillions of dollars of debt.

[MrModerate]

48. How could attacking Iran possibly prevent . . .

The collapse you refer to? It's much more likely to bring on just the sort of chaos that will wreck economies around the world. And if the war drums are just for show, what's supposed to happen when we stop beating?

It's not like we (or any other nation) could take the place over and manage their economic policy -- or seize their oil. Even Bush isn't so stupid (I pray) to think he can occupy Iran. The only attack that's likely (prior to them obtaining nukes) is attempts to destroy their nuke-making capability. Such strikes are likely to be carried out (in the first instance) by Israel, with the US sucked in shortly thereafter.

I'm also concerned that you underestimate how batshit Ahmadinejad is. He may believe that retaliation is unlikely, even if he uses a nuke. Alternatively he may use his nukes AFTER Israel/US attempts to wipe out his facilities in revenge or some similar motive.

My point being that, IMO, downplaying the very real threat of a nuclear-armed Iran -- thinking that the economic issues are paramount -- is likely to lead us into very dangerous policy territory.

And then, of course, we've got Georgie with his finger on the button, who's as batshit in his own way as Ahmadinejad.

[ret5hd]

51. 1) Chaos in the middle east is what the U.S. DEPENDS on...

to keep our ship afloat. It is what enables companys to bribe, cheat, and steal the oil. It is why billions of dollars worth of iraqi oil has disappeared, unpaid for and spirited out of the country. Lack of chaos is why we hate those like venezuealas chavez.

2)We have managed iraq's economic policy VERY well...they are now selling oil in dollars again, which is the only economic policy of theirs that mattered to us.

3)We didn't have to seize iraq's oil, did we? We're letting oil corps do it for us. As we will in iran.

4)How batshit is Ahmadinejad? As batshit as Saddam? More or less as batshit as the leaders (past and present)of israel, pakistan, india, north korea? And what amount of batshit is necessary for a person who is intelligent/wily/cunning enough to wrestle his way to the top of a country to still be insane enough to believe there would be no retaliation for a nuclear attack? HA! Even if such a leader didn't care if we retaliated, he would always recognize that the retaliation WILL come.

i stand by my earlier stance: the economic situation is the paramount concern. Your concerns of pursuing dangerous policy are exacerbated by ignoring/downplaying this aspect...imho.

[RaleighNCDUer]

52. If Iran really wanted a nuke, they have the billions of dollars

from their oil revenue to buy one - from the Russians or former soviet satellites, from the Pakistani's, the Chinese. Do you think we really know where every one of the ex-Soviet Union's 30,000 nukes are? I wouldn't be surprised if they already had a half dozen. But who would they nuke? Us? They'd be a slag-heap from border to border, twenty minutes later. Israel? Same thing, and besides they would not want to make Islam's 3rd holiest city uninhabitable for the next x number of years. The Prophet would not look kindly upon that.

I'd be much more concerned about Bin Laden getting ahold of a nuke, than of Iran.

[EuroObserver]

65. Have to agree here.

As I see it, apart from political posturing on the international stage playing to domestic and regional audiences (and national/cultural pride: Persia has a very long history) and geopolitical (economic) reasons (see this thought-provoking article), they likely really want in-house nuclear energy now because their oil has peaked with output now declining, and ther remaining oil and gas can be more valuable to them as export commodities looking forward. They (and many others by now) would surely like some defensive nuke capacity too, unfortunately - but, as you say, either they purchase that off the shelf somewhere or they'd have to spend years developing something - as NPT signatories under intense international scrutiny.

[hang a left]

76. this is the real threat...

http://www.energybulletin.net/12125.html

[mrcheerful]

3. Did they include the Reagan Iran deal about Reagan trading arms for the

hostages? After all thats why Iran released the hostages and even back before the story broke I smelled a rat, named Reagan.

[Oilwellian]

33. I don't think that's correct

Iran/Contra involved another set of hostages being held in Lebanon during the 80's.

[bananas]

42. mrcheerful is correct

mrcheerful is referring to "October Surprise" not Iran/Contra.

[RaleighNCDUer]

53. So you think it was just coincidence that the embassy hostages

were released on the day Reagan took office.

Of course, maybe those conniving, dastardly Iranians released the embassy hostages that day to make it LOOK like they had cut a deal with Reagan to hold them until Carter was out of office, thereby underming the American public's confidence in Reagan.

[mogster]

68. I have wondered about that

DID Reagan help to increase the time the hostages were held by keeping off the release until it suited him politically? And if he did, why wasn't it uncovered and Reagan sent to jail?
For that matter; if Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was present among the students taking hostages, maybe he was the contact the Reagan-administration had at the embassy, and subsequently an Am. agent? Or something of that kind?

His election victory was described as a 'surprise' and he sure does play into the neocons hands.

[hatrack]

4. It's here - "Iran - The Vengeance" starring Ron Silver & Bo Derek

Directed by John Milius, I suppose. :eyes:

[meganmonkey]

5. They're talking about it on NPR Morning Edition this morning too n/t

[jsamuel]

14. yep heard it this morning too

[guruoo]

26. NPR story didn't even mention arms for hostages n/t

[DinahMoeHum]

6. You and me both, Will. I've said on various threads re Iran

that all this shit is about REVENGE for what happened in 1979. Twenty-five years ago (in 2004).

The Republican elephant doesn't forget.

Only thing is, neither do the Iranians. Their memories are TWICE as long, going back to 1953, when a CIA-backed coup deposed their elected president Mossadegh.

:evilfrown:

[eleny]

13. Revenge? For helping hand Reagan the election?

Oh, yeah. Up is down - in is out. It's Opposite World. :silly:

[DinahMoeHum]

56. That was 1980, not 1979, when the Shah was deposed.

n/t

[annabanana]

17. Oh yeah... the Shah on the Peacock Throne...

I remember.

[SoCalDem]

49. What Americans don't understand is THIS..

Middle Eastern and Asian cultures have histories going back THOUSANDS of years, and the tribal cultures (especially agrarian peoples) are BUILT on oral histories told and retold by parents, grandparents and religious leaders...so they DON'T ever forget transgressions done to them through the years.

Remember Kosovo (or Kosovaliens, according to our president)? They were still fightiing over something that had happened in 1080...

Centuries-old animosities flare up with regularity in the middle east. Apparently God has told all his/her "children" that THEY are the favorite and heir to all the land & goodies.Each offended "child" has ample 'proof' of ownership, and all are willing to die to prove it.

Our country is so young, that we may still believe that time heals all wounds...but that is just not true.

The meddling done by us in the middle east is very 'new' by their measuring standards.. Installing the shah might as well have been last week, the way time is measured there..

[H2O Man]

7. There was plenty

of film on it on tv last night. Though I had not heard you saying that before, I thought it was a bad sign when they played the '79 film to educate the public on the Carroll kidnapping.

[in_cog_ni_to]

8. There's no doubt in my mind...we will attack Iran.

PNAC...it's an important part of their agenda. Up after Iran, Syria.

[Ishoutandscream2]

9. Iran's on deck, Syria's in the hole.

And after that, North Korea? Probably not - no oil.

[JohnnyBoots]

59. It'll be Venezuala in some way or another. Either a Grenada like

invasion or Chavez will die in a plane crash and we will install a new more friendly head of state.

[IndyOp]

10. My work: Stop Alito. Reveal corruption. Make wheels fall off the * wagon

Push on ALL fronts to weaken the * administration. They are still sufficiently insane that they might still attack Iran - but we lessen the possibility by weakening them.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

11. I fear you are correct. And global war will break out

the entire mid east will be in flames, with Israel and the US taking out entire cities with a single bomb.
China, India, and Russia will realize that Iran is better as a friend, much more reliable than the US. Japan will cave. Venequela, Bolivia, Brazil and others will recognize that the US damages them, rather than helps, and will band together against us. Even Canada will distance itself from us. We will have become the pariah nation.

Thanks to dickie and Donnie and Georgie and condi.

[leeroysphitz]

18. Iran could easily be the flashpoint for a MUCH wider conflict...

The scary thing for me is I simply can not believe that this admin does not know this.

If they are aware of the potential for expanded regional/ global conflict resulting
from aggression toward Iran (and they are) then they must be taking this course
DELIBERATELY. Is this brinkmanship with China and Russia? Or do they really want
another world war? If so why?

[Servotron]

55. Well, if you go with the religious fundie wacko theory....

...They want the LAST world war. And while I'm not the Bible expert, I believe there's something in there, a prophecy about Russia teaming up with several middle eastern countries to invade Israel.

These dumbfucks might be trying to kickoff Armegeddon itself.

[FreedomAngel82]

31. The only way I think Canada would get involved

is if they have a conservative PM.

[drduffy]

50. the 4 horsemen of the apocalypse?

[Arkansas Granny]

12. This is the way we will withdraw troops from Iraq. We'll just

send them to Iran. Thas been in the works for a long time.

[cmd]

16. I do believe you are correct.

The evil empire is not done yet.

[in_cog_ni_to]

19. Iraq has always been an intended "staging area" and a place

to have military bases in the ME. This way they have easy access to Iran and Syria.

[ClayZ]

21. According to this, the troops are in shabby shape...

BATTLEFIELD IRAQ
Terrence McNally, AlterNet
Combat veterans Sean Huze, Paul Rieckhoff and Jimmy Massey
discuss the truth -- and the lies -- about the war in Iraq.
http://www.alternet.org/waroniraq/31053/

snip>

I don't care what George Bush tells you, our military's been run into the ground. More than half of our folks are there for a second time, the divorce rates have doubled, we're now moving combat units out of Korea and out of training units in the United States to perform combat missions in Iraq, recruiting numbers are in the toilet, and retention numbers will soon fall. At the end of the day, he's really destroyed our military, and that will have long-term effects for our national security for decades.

snip> http://www.ivaw.net/

Jimmy Massey, a co-founder of Iraq Veterans Against the War, is a former staff sergeant in the United States Marine Corps. He was a boot camp instructor at Parris Island, S.C., and a Marine recruiter before fighting in the Iraq war and was honorably discharged in December 2003 after 12 years of service. His autobiography, "Kill, Kill, Kill," was recently published in France. Ron Harris, a reporter for the St. Louis Dispatch, once embedded with the Marines in Iraq, claims Massey has lied or exaggerated his accounts of atrocities in Iraq. The controversy was recently a cover story in Marine Corps Times.

snip>

[Arkansas Granny]

28. I don't think we'll hear about it in an election year, but I think they

will be talking draft soon after the elections, even if they have to manufacture a situation to convince people that it's necessary to keep America safe. They will rely on fear and ignorance of the truth to try to get the majority to support them.

[FreedomAngel82]

32. Yes

Remember Kerry mentioned this during the 2004 year. Of course Bush denied it but Kerry has been right about everything else he has said.

[RaleighNCDUer]

54. But that's because they are being used as an occupation force.

They could still be extraordinarily effective as combat troops in a set battle, such as invading Iran. They could still roll over just about any uniformed military set before them. It's the guys in the Toyota pickups, and the IEDs that's wearing them down; it's not having a straight-up fight.

Of course, if it goes much longer even that could change.

[bloom]

67. Who needs troops when you have unmanned "CIA" drones...??

:grr:

[underpants]

20. 25th anniversay tomorrow

Eh I wouldn't say that this has that much to do with that.

[bananas]

22. "Iran starts transferring foreign assets"

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x2053899

Iran starts transferring foreign assets


Friday 20 January 2006, 16:42 Makka Time, 13:42 GMT

The governor of Iran's central bank has confirmed that the country has started to transfer assets held in foreign accounts.

<snip>

Iran, which could face UN economic sanctions over its atomic programme, has bitter memories of its US assets being frozen shortly after the 1979 Islamic revolution...cont'd

[Guy Whitey Corngood]

23. Nonsense,

there are no plans on my desk to invade Iran. They're on Condi's desk, hee-hee-hee........

[htuttle]

25. Plans? Who needs plans?

Bushco doesn't DO 'plans', other than how they plan to divide up the loot.

[Guy Whitey Corngood]

34. You're right plans would get in the way of all that fun. n/t

[leveymg]

36. Even the mere threat of war drives up oil profits

That is, in largest part, the point of this exercise. It also creates a crisis environment in which the most extreme, corrupt and militant factions can seize and maintain control -- that's true here in the U.S., in Iran, Israel, Pakistan and in Saudi Arabia.

There's an unholy alliance -- multinational oil barons and Right-wing nationalists in multiple countries that are driving the world toward universal ruin. Mike Ledeen, misappropriating Joseph Schumpeter, terms it "creative destruction" in that it creates wealth for a few out of the destruction of many. It bankrupts nations and trades on fear. Like its junior partners, international terrorists, this criminal cabal is a threat to collective security and needs to be rooted out worldwide by law enforcement,intelligence, and when necessary, the military.

In defense of the Constitution, the FBI, CIA and Pentagon must move swiftly to neutralize those enemies, foreign and domestic, who continue to threaten our national security. The arrest of Ken Lay, Scooter Libby, Larry Franklin, Tom DeLay, and Jack Abramoff are only the beginning of what has to be a thorough investigation and large-scale prosecution of international energy pirates, corrupt politicians, and neocon espionage rings who sponsor terrorism and foment disastrous wars for private profit and foreign advantage.

Beating the drum for another costly, unnecessary war is treason.

"War is a racket." - Gen. Smedley Butler, Marine Corps Commandant

[Sydnie]

24. Rita (breathless) Crosby had one of the hostages on her show last night

Then she did this lame "how to be a good hostage" training thing where they kidnapped her and yelled at her. I really enjoyed the part where they yelled at her, but I'm sick like that sometimes.

I have been holding my breath. It is not about weapons at all. It's about how they are going to sell their oil. Religion and money ... what a deadly mixture that is.

[elehhhhna]

29. Is Bush the Avenger of Past Insults or what? He's appointed hisself

the Doler-Outer-Of-Revenge/Killmaster (D.O.R.K.). What's next, after Iran? Bomb the Japs?

[anarch]

30. you can hear the drumbeat to war getting louder

Despite the sheer insanity of the whole idea, they're just sticking to the PNAC agenda come hell or high water. How do we stop it? Because it's up to us, you know. History, and the world for that matter, will hold us, the American people, accountable for all this.

We've got to stop this shit. These are not sane people. I mean, do we just let this keep happening until we wind up with an apocalyptic showdown between the U.S. and China? Is that just inevitable? I don't think so....

[KitSileya]

57. You are right about that.

About the American people being held accountable. I teach English as a foreign language in Norway, and the contempt my kids have for Americans is breathtaking, when you think of the worship Norwegian teenagers lavished on all things stars and stripes just a generation ago. The fact that Bush was reelected just cemented this view in their minds - and it doesn't matter if it was election fraud or not. If Americans aren't aware enough to get Bush out, it's their own fault, is the thinking. These kids have no problem enjoying American entertainment, but with Iraq, they're scathing in their insults. Should there be a war in Iran, don't count on Norwegian teenagers, or even Europeans, to support the US - some European governments might, but notice that in Norway, the pro-Bush conservative coalition government was thrown out on its ear in the last election, even tho' the country has had steady economic growth in the years after 9/11. The American hegemony in anything but music or entertainment is disappearing.

[progressoid]

35. 25 years. That's about the right amount of wait time before

resuming a fight.

[megatherium]

38. The Israelis have just blamed Iran for yesterday's terrorist

attack in Israel. I wonder if the Israelis are building a legal case for their own military action against Iran.

[wiggs]

39. Anybody: what is role of congress here re Iran?

Did they give authority to administration in 2003 IWR? If not, couldn't they now make CLEAR TO EVERYBODY that they didn't?

Couldn't a resolution be offered, at least, saying that congress alone has power to declare war and that any action in Iran must come through congress, especially in light of the fact that Iranian nuclear capability is years off?

Certainly seems like something is on the move....WHO is moving it? Is it just the administration? Is it also congress and the media again?

Like in 2003, it is hard to know who is on what side and why.....

[bananas]

43. I don't know the answer to your question, but

if you read what Hillary and Kerry are saying,
I'm sure that an Iran Bombing Resolution would pass overwhelmingly.
After Iran retaliates, an Iran War Resolution would easily follow.

As when Reagan bombed Libya in an attempt to assasssinate Kaddafi,
Bush wouldn't have to notify Congress until after the bombers returned.

[PATRICK]

41. Yep headlines

on the miserable CNN radio blurbs too. Goebbels would be proud. Lockstep for the reruns and no one who notices will be noticed.

[legin]

45. The oil market thinks the probability is 30 to 50 %

(dubious maths alert)

Iran exports 2.5 million. That is about $15 on the price if the supply is interupted. The market has discounted at least $9 already in the last 2 or 3 weeks. (there is the Niger Delta to throw into the mix too but still the market is going up way to much for me)

[EstimatedProphet]

46. Yeah, looks like they're ratcheting up the xenophobia

I never thought it would take long to go that route. Pull the scabs off the old Hostage Crisis wounds, remind everyone that Iran is full of subhuman monsters...Looks like we're on our way.

[spanone]

47. NPR had a story on the Iran hostages this morning. shit.

[BlueManDude]

58. We are not putting boots on the ground in Iran

there are no boots to put there.

[eridani]

64. Still plenty of planes in the air, though n/t

[BlueManDude]

71. Not after they're thru bombing Iraq back to the Stone Age

if we haven't already "liberated" them back to the Stone Age already.

[rman]

80. Come on, planes don't wear out or anything

When they're done with Iraq they can go over to Iran.

[mtnsnake]

60. Bush would have to go through China to do it, and China owns us

I believe China is now the largest oil importer that Iran has. How much money do we owe China because of Bush? How much manpower does China have? How accurate is their nuclear arsenal?

Like you said, tomorrow is the 25th anniversary of the hostages' release. Thus the images you've been talking about.

edit for spelling

[loudsue]

61. And the 9/11 hijackers were from SAUDI ARABIA.

Here we are....making war on everybody except the government that spawned the hijackers.

:kick::kick::kick:

[yurbud]

63. hope Will is wrong, but probably aint

[EuroObserver]

66. So, is there also remembering of what was done to Nicaragua at this time?

Iran-Contra-Nicaragua???

[xchrom]

69. if keeping the middle east off balance is the only goal

and i think there is ample evidence to make a case for that -- then simply bombing iran's nuclear facilities is all that's needed.

[Cooley Hurd]

70. Did we hear anything on the 25th anniversary of their initial capture?

I didn't.

I doubt the anniversary of their release has anything to do with what we're seeing.

Get ready to see MUCH more of this fellow's pic, also:

BOOGAH!

[LiberalInGeorgia2005]

72. Not a big deal

Yes I believe that the neo-cons are pushing for more of the "Bush doctrine" on Iran, but no, I don't believe these images on the day of the anniversary mean anything. It's a little paranoid.

[bklyncowgirl]

73. And here's Osama right on cue to take the air out of the opposition.

Are you with us or with the terrorists?

[Deja Q]

77. Don't they mean 27 years later?

2006-1979 = 27. Not 25.

Maybe our schools ARE failing.

[H2O Man]

78. It is about

their release, which was 25 years ago.

[Ugnmoose]

81. War with Iran will be an act of desperation

As I pointed out in my thread Must Read - The real reason why we will go to war with Iran. It is going to be about the oil dollars and not the oil.