Marist Poll: Clinton would lose New York to either Giuliani or McCain

[WI_DEM]

While New York democrats favor Hillary R. Clinton over Al Gore for the Democratic nomination (42-24 percent, nobody else gets over 6%)she might have a hard time carrying traditionally Democratic New York against either Rudy Giuliani or John McCain--the two front-runners for the GOP nomination according to most polls.

*Giuliani beats Clinton 52-43 percent.
*McCain is ahead of Clinton 48-46 percent.

Democrats have carried New York by well over a million votes since 1992 in presidential elections, so it is too soon to tell if this would last. Both Giuliani and McCain get over a quarter of the Democratic vote and are well ahead among Independents in match-ups with Mrs. Clinton.

www.maristpoll.com

[bullimiami]

1. bullshit.

[Ken Burch]

3. what a deeply eloquent response.

Right up there with the Gettysburg address.

Well said.

[jobycom]

7. I liked it. Accurate, to the point. Said all that needed to be said.

[Ken Burch]

16. Is there any reason to assume that the Marist poll,

which as I understand it has been pretty reputable in terms of NY polling, would be deliberately stacked against the junior senator?

I'm just saying that if you're going to argue that the poll isn't accurate, you're obliged to provide some evidence to support the claim. Shouting "bullshit", emotionally satisfying though it may be, is not a rebuttal.

[jobycom]

Not the poll, the article, or the OP summary of it.

It claims Giuliani and McCain would beat her. McCain is tied with her, leading by 2 points in a poll statistically valid only to within 3.5% (according to the poll). SO the poll shows her trailing only to Giuliani.

And I'd call BS to the implication of the article and OP, that she would have trouble in New York. The poll doesn't show how any other candidate would compare to Giuliani, other than Republicans in the Repub primary. The headline of the OP implies that Hillary might not be the best candidate to beat Giuliani in New York, but the poll shows nothing of the sort--doesn't even address the question.

I'd also question the method of the poll. A poll with a string of questions on a series of theoretical matchups has its own inherent bias, often depending on the order of the questions, since order of candidates named, or matchups of candidates, affect the way people respond. A simple head-to-head question gives a better indication of true voter opinion. It's like a bracket--people make one choice, and tend to stick with their early choice even as circumstances change.

So, I think the slant of the OP title is misleading, the poll analysis is misleading, and the poll itself is questionable.

But "bullshit" says roughly the same thing, and takes less time to type.

[Ken Burch]

26. Thanks for the elaboration.

You've actually made a far better case against the poll than the original response did.

[bullimiami]

18. because it doesnt make any sense. new yorkers arent stupid.

giuliani was a lousy mayor. worse than lousy. he is going to run on his response to 9/11?

mccain is a fake. a rightwing hypocrite. he panders he waffles he hugs bush he is full of it.

hillary is the real deal like her or not, like her politics or not. she is tough, honest, confident and a democrat.


most new yorkers arent stupid and they dont easily vote republican.

[ronnykmarshall]

22. horse shit

I hope that was just as well thought out to meet everyones approval.

:sarcasm:

[AX10]

2. I call BULLSHIT!

The Democratic Presidential candidate in 2008 will carry New York by a million votes or more, just as it has in the last four elections.

[SaveElmer]

4. I would be willing to bet...at this point...

Both Guiliani and McCain would poll even better against any of the other Democratic possibilities...

I would also bet, that these numbers would turn around very quickly in an actual campaign...

[jobycom]

5. With McCain, that's a tie. With Giuliani, he's got stronger roots in NY

Anyone would have trouble beating him in NY.

As for McCain, a two point lead is a tie in a poll, especially two and half years from the election.

And it doesn't show any other Democrat beating either Giuliani or McCain in NY, either.

[ShortnFiery]

6. How about NONE of The Above.

Those three are truly pathetic choices for President, but anyone's better than the embarrassment we have in the office now. :cry: :(

[FreeStateDemocrat]

9. Right, a very good chance none of the above will be on Nov '08 ballot

[SaveElmer]

8. Funny how they never poll on other Democratic candidates...

Or any other Republican candidates other than McCain and Guiliani...

Always Hillary vs. one of those two...

Had they done so I believe we would have seen the following results...

Hillary would best any of the other Republican candidates by a wide margin...

Hillary would be doing better against Guilian and McCain than any of the other potential Democratic candidates...

They do these to get headlines...its a nice juicy story that means nothing!

[KurtNYC]

11. And they seldom poll Jeb Bush

Whom I fully expect will run in 2008.

[SaveElmer]

12. The one national poll I saw on Jeb...

Showed him losing to Hillary by like 15 points or something

[KurtNYC]

10. Hillary already beat Rudy

Rudy lost so badly that he pulled out of the race with 3 months to go. His numbers were plummeting upstate and he was already losing badly in the City so he pulled out.

The more they saw of Rudy upstate, the less they liked him.

[WI_DEM]

14. According to all the "pundits" 9/11 changed Rudy's reputation

We shall see if that is the case.

[KurtNYC]

17. Here is another thing that changed Rudy's reputation

I don't think that will play in Peoria.

[Lasher]

13. This might be relevant

This is from a 4/23/06 Strategic Vision poll:

20. If the election for United States Senate was held today, whom would you vote for if the candidates were, Hillary Clinton, the Democrat or Rudy Giuliani, the Republican?

Rudy Giuliani 44%
Hillary Clinton 41%
Undecided 15%

http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/newyork_poll_042806.htm

[AX10]

15. That's a GOP polling firm.

[bullimiami]

20. this already happened and giuliani tucked his tail and ran before it

even got off the ground.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

19. *Shrug* I won't vote for any of them.

If the Dem bosses are dumb enough to trot out a warmongering DLC'er in 2008 like Hillary, I'll be looking elsewhere.

[Bake]

21. I doubt Rudy will run for President

He has waaaaaay too much baggage. The potential campaign ads showing Rudy in drag are just the tip of the iceberg. His behavior with Judy Nathan will certainly offend the so-called religious right. His stance on abortion will further enrage them. He ca't exactly call himself Mr. Family Values. What he gained, if any, in New York he'd certainly lose elsewhere. I can't see him surviving the Puke primaries.

Bake

[ronnykmarshall]

23. or Hillary for that matter.

[samsingh]

24. how can so many dems be so misinformed to vote for McCain

or worse - Guliani

[GreenArrow]

25. Guiliani maybe, McCain, no

Consider the Lieberman "kiss float"...then picture a McCain hug float. Old boy would flip a gasket quicker than you could say "Mission Accomplished".