Strategy behind the ceasefire delay is to give Israel time for 'victory'

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The Long-Term Battle: Defining ‘Victory’ Before the World

By STEVEN ERLANGER
Published: August 3, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/03/world/middleeast/03israel.html?ref=world&pagewanted=print


JERUSALEM, Aug. 2 — As Israeli troops press the ground offensive in southern Lebanon and commandos make an unexpected raid far to the north in Baalbek, Israel is fighting now to win the battle of perceptions.

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert wants to ensure that when a cease-fire is finally arranged, Israel is seen as having won a decisive victory over Hezbollah. It is important for him politically, especially after a slow and fumbling start to this war. In part, Israel wants to recover from an image of an unimpressive military venture against a tough, small, but well-trained group of fighters.

Israel also wants to send a message to the Palestinians, and to Hezbollah and its sponsors, Syria and Iran, that attacks on Israel will be met with overwhelming force, and that the cost is not worth the effort. How soon that message is perceived will play a central role in its decision to stop the war.

As with all wars, however, any victory must be consolidated in political and diplomatic arrangements, which remain uncertain, like the insertion of a multinational force along the border.


no expects any 'decisive' victory will be achieved over Hizbollah by the Israeli forces. The over 600 Lebanese killed underneath Israel's airstrikes so far haven't had any significant effect on Hizbollah's ability to strike into Israel.

How many more Lebanese must die to 'send a signal' to someone?

[uppityperson]

1. 508 Leb civilns,46 Hezb guerrills,26 Leb sldrs,36 Isr sldrs,19 Isr civilns

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/fisk/article1211295.ece

...The obscene score-card for death in this latest war now stands as follows: 508 Lebanese civilians, 46 Hizbollah guerrillas, 26 Lebanese soldiers, 36 Israeli soldiers and 19 Israeli civilians.

In other words, Hizbollah is killing more Israeli soldiers than civilians and the Israelis are killing far more Lebanese civilians than they are guerrillas. The Lebanese Red Cross has found 40 more civilian dead in the south of the country in the past two days, many of them with wounds suggesting they might have survived had medical help been available.

[TahitiNut]

4. Se what having 'smart' weapons can do for an army?

Imagine how it'd be with the low-tech stuff. :eyes:

[TahitiNut]

2. There's no 'win' ... only 'lose-lose'

Zealots and ideologues with weapons - recipe for insanity.

[Solly Mack]

3. "...the cost is not worth the effort.."

That blade cuts both ways...

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5. of course, the blade cuts both ways

Yet, there is the prospect that Israel's actions may actually increase the animosity directed against them. Israel's security is the motivation for any support of their assault on Lebanon. That doesn't seem to have been enhanced by their airstrikes which have killed hundreds. Hizbollah appears to be unaffected by the deaths.

It has been said that victory for Hizbollah may be found by them in something as basic as their organization's survival.

What defines victory for Israel? How many deaths should the international community accept before they unite in opposition to this antithetical war on Lebanon?

[Solly Mack]

6. That was my point - that the cost to Israel won't be worth their effort

"their effort" as in Israel's effort

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7. I wonder how long their cabinet will hold to this strategy?

It's obviously bankrupt

[Solly Mack]

8. I wish I knew

Said strategy has yet to work, so there has to be something more going on...