Sectarian break-up of Iraq is now inevitable, admit officials

[cal04]

The Iraqi Prime Minister, Nouri al-Maliki, meets Tony Blair in London today as violence in Iraq reaches a new crescendo and senior Iraqi officials say the break up of the country is inevitable.

(snip)
"Iraq as a political project is finished," a senior government official was quoted as saying, adding: "The parties have moved to plan B." He said that the Shia, Sunni and Kurdish parties were now looking at ways to divide Iraq between them and to decide the future of Baghdad, where there is a mixed population. "There is serious talk of Baghdad being divided into east and west," he said.

Hoshyar Zebari, the Iraqi Foreign Minister, told The Independent in an interview, before joining Mr Maliki to fly to London and then Washington, that in theory the government should be able to solve the crisis because Shia, Kurd and Sunni were elected members of it.

But he painted a picture of a deeply divided administration in which senior Sunni members praised anti-government insurgents as "the heroic resistance".

(snip)
"Maliki's trip to Washington is all part of the US domestic agenda to put a good face on things for November," a European diplomat in Baghdad was quoted as saying.

more
http://news.independent.co.uk/world/middle_east/article1193108.ece

[SoCalDem]

1. Looks like some sanity is seeping through the cracks

If there is a population held together by the glue of "fear-of-leader", it always comes unglued when the leader is deposed, dies or steals the money and runs..

At least this is a decision that the people themselves will make..

[Old and In the Way]

4. We could have accomplished the same with a well placed $.50 bullet

Saved 3000+ American lives, 20000+ casualties, and a trillion dollars.

[SoCalDem]

7. yeppers.. or failing that..

we could have actually cobbled together a real country if:

the "invasion" had been followed by:

posters plastered all over the place in every town & village offering JOBS....say $1000 a month for every male from 14-60..

give them a place to assemble, and hand them tools and supplies, and put THEM to woek rebuilding their country

hire LOCAL engineering companies, construction companies, oil field workers..LOCAL LOCAL

they would have all been too busy and too "rich" to start shit.. and they would have gotten along..

of course halliburton,KBR & Bechtel & Blackwater & Dyncorps etc would have lost a bunch of money..

Can you even imagine a post-sanctions Iraqi man with 2 sons...that family would be making $3K a month.. Do you see them jeopardizing that to make IEDs?

[WCGreen]

12. Oh if only we didn;t have an idiot surrounded by morons

running this war....

That's a great idea...

Give people a stake in their future....

[cliss]

14. See? Why couldn't you have been in charge

and everything would have turned out fine.

But no, instead we had to have an idiot in charge.

[peacetalksforall]

27. SoCalDem, you're ideas are inventive, creative, sane.

The solutions of choice for PNAC inhumans appear to be prisons and cemetaries.

[liberalpragmatist]

28. It's a terrible outcome

Granted, I haven't been to Iraq, but if you've read interviews with Iraqis, looked at Iraqi polls, or watched documentaries on Iraq (such as the documentary "On Baghdad" - excellent if you get the chance) it'll be apparent that Iraqis, despite having initially been an artificial creation, have largely been disinterested in a breakup (with the exception of the Kurds).

Shi'ite Iraqis and Sunni Iraqis have lived in the same country for nearly over 80 years; there are tons of mixed marriages and thoroughly mixed population. Iraqis and historians of Iraq have noted that while there was always some rivalry and some tension, by-and-large Shias and Sunnis got along fine on an individual level.

Moreover, if Iraq was a thoroughly artificial creation, it wouldn't have withstood the non-totalitarian, quasi-democratic regime that was in place before the 1960s, or the more lax regime in place prior to the Ba'ath. And it would have self-destructed immediately after the US invasion.

The current sectarian problems are the result of a power vacuum. The majority of Shias and Sunnis would be perfectly happy living together, provided a proper federal structure could be maintained. The problem is that without a government, the extremist factions are the ones that can dictate the agenda, and in such a climate violence and lawlessness quickly flourishes, which drives communities apart because they worry about survival.

But multinational states are by no means inherently due to breakup - most countries are multinational and most work fine, even if there are certain problems.

A breakup of Iraq may occur, but it's hardly an ideal outcome. It'll lead to more bloodshed, massive ethnic cleansing, and 3 weak states that are constantly at war with each other. VERY few partitions in history have led to peace - they almost always have led to more war. See this interview from Peace Magazine that covers this issue in great depth: http://www.peacemagazine.org/archive/v11n3p12.htm

[Ms. Clio]

31. I'm pretty sure that Iraqis like Riverbend won't welcome this

but of course it doesn't matter what she or any of them want.

[TheCowsCameHome]

2. What will the chimp have to say about this?

Or more correctly how will he spin it?

[SoCalDem]

3. whooo-hoooo-haaa-haaa-

cue chimpvoice machine

[rodeodance]

6. he will still talk hard work, progress unity gov. freedom. ect ect

[PaulaFarrell]

40. Three democracies ...

See, if one democarcy is good, then three is three times as good! These people are just exercising their freedoms by choosing to live in separate countries...something along those lines

[Mandate My Ass]

49. LOL. That was good.

:thumbsup:

[Ms. Clio]

5. this was always the desired result

three weak and warring little ethnic enclaves instead of a united and potentially powerful Iraq.

[Webster Green]

8. Yep........BushCo Inc/Halliburton thrive on chaos...

It makes their job (fattening Cheney & cronies bank accounts) so much easier when folks are scrambling for their lives.

[LSK]

35. Halliburtan stock went from 10 to over 80

[Old and In the Way]

10. I agree....this was intent...fragment the state and cut deals with the

war lords in what is left.

[Minstrel Boy]

11. It's always been the actual mission,

and it's just about accomplished.

[H2O]

17. True

Bush is put in not as a uniter nor even a divider; he was elected as President as a destroyer. From what I understand, he is quite good at destroying.

[Monkeyman]

9. Opps time for a new Govenment Bush spin

[Hubert Flottz]

45. He has damaged our country to the very foundation too.

America is in a world of shit!

[Crunchy Frog]

13. I wonder if that was the plan all along.

Easier to control the oil that way?

[rocktivity]

15. Funny--there were people at DU who figured that out

as far back as early 2003...

:evilgrin:
rocknation

[nealmhughes]

24. No joke. I had only a couple of courses in Turkish history and nationa-

ism in grad school, but I knew that the British solution on the Arab lands of the former Ottoman Empire were going to come back to haunt them.

Kurdistan has only a little in common with say Basra, with its coastal Shiite population whose main and natural allies are Persian. Baghdad, indeed, is its own animal, with huge Christian, Sunni and Shiite populations, as we all see through the nightly outrage reports. Even Mosul, as the key Kurdish city, is actually a Christian Assyrian city in many regards, and also full of Shiite holy sites as well...

Karl Marx and subsequent political philosophers made a huge error when they discounted nationalism, religious division and tradition. How could Britain and Germany be at war with each other in the First World War? Both were empires and the hereditary enemies of France. The Kaiser and George V were first cousins, both were more or less raised in Windsor...both were majority Protestant, literal cousins in blood and culture...yet they saw a bogey and went to war.

If Britain and Germany could do it in 1914, then why not the Kurds, Shia nd Sunni in 2006?

Indeed, as others have pointed out, that the Kurds, the most presently stable part of the country, will be again abandonded by the US, just as Daddy Bush did after the first Gulf war and Baby Bush probably will on Turkey's insistence...

[mom cat]

16. Mission Accomplished!

:sarcasm:

[dorkulon]

18. About damn time

A 3-state solution was inevitable from the moment those arbitrary, thoughtless borders were imposed on the area. It has always made sense. The only problem is that Turkey will try to invade the Kurdish region if it is given sovereignty. I can only hope that the US will do the right thing and defend the Kurds.

[Disturbed]

20. "US will do the right thing and defend the Kurds."

How would Busholini's Junta do that?

[dorkulon]

25. Well, aren't they building military bases there?

I'm not saying they will, but they could. If we're lucky, someone slightly less insane will be in charge by then.

[Matilda]

19. Is it really that simple?

Each group will want a share of the oil fields - if there's an uneven distribution, there will
be ongoing fighting over the spoils, and one group could target another's oil supply. The West
wouldn't be happy with that situation.

The truth is, it took a man like Saddam to keep a lid on the place, as it does in most ME countries.
They're very macho societies, and it takes someone powerful and if necessary, brutal, to control
them.

A divided Iraq will be no more stable than Korea, or Northern Ireland. There will always
be fighting.

[liberalpragmatist]

26. I find this attitude a little racist

Not that you're racist; it's just that it's such a paternalistic point of view.

My issue is with this statement: The truth is, it took a man like Saddam to keep a lid on the place, as it does in most ME countries.
They're very macho societies, and it takes someone powerful and if necessary, brutal, to control
them.

There's no reason to think that, given the right conditions, there couldn't be democracy in Arab countries. No one should have to live under a brutal dictatorship. Nor was Iraq even held together as brutally as it was under Saddam - previous regimes were historically much more lax (even if they weren't saints) and the country was even quasi-democratic in the 1950s.

And no, that doesn't mean I supported the US removing Saddam Hussein; I think he could have been contained diplomatically, sanctions reduced so that the Iraqi people wouldn't suffer, and eventually the Iraqi people themselves would have established their own democracy.

All I'm saying is the attitude that "some countries need dictators" is extremely paternalistic and assumes that democracy can only function in a Western-style environment. An example of a fractious, non-Western country with tons of rival groups would be India.

That said, I agree with you about a division; it'll be a disaster.

[Matilda]

34. I didn't say or imply that some countries need dictators.

Saddam could have been contained diplomatically, and it would have been good if the West (I mean
in principal the US) could have exerted pressure on Saddam to implement human rights in return for
aid. But nobody really cared, as long as western countries got their oil. In fact, the West often
prefers to deal with dictators, as long as they play the game the way we want.

But Islamic societies are more patriarchal, and more macho than we would like, and when it's
combined with decades of oppression, it takes time for a new ethos to emerge. It was never going
to happen overnight. I don't think a tolerant and humane leader would last very long in Iraq.
Or Afghanistan either. That's just how it is at this moment.

[liberalpragmatist]

37. Fair enough

Yeah, I mostly concur. So we are in agreement.

[Matilda]

50. Okay.

:-)

[papau]

41. I agree - indeed why no "Jewish" or "Christian" area - albeit the Saddam

expulsion and murder of the Baghdad area Jews would now require some solid guarantees before any returned, and the Christian folks that followed the Jews exodus in the 1960's/70's would likewise need guarantees.

But for the record I just do not like Muslim/Islamic ethnic cleansing succeeding - as it appears it has with the Iraq Jews/Christians, and as it now will with the Sunni/Sh'ia - and our buddies the tribal Sunni that call themselves Kurds.

[Mugsy]

21. A big flashing neon "FAILURE" sign!

If the Iraqi's decide the only way to save it is by splitting it up, after all the assurances by the Bush Administration that "that would never happen", if that doesn't stand out as one big honking "FAILURE" sign of the failed GOP and the Bush Administrations policies, *nothing* will.

:banghead:

[IndyOp]

22. Mission Accomplished !!

The NeoCons are Partying tonight! :woohoo:

It is so much easier to control small weak countries.

:sarcasm:


:cry: :grr: :cry: :grr:

[bahrbearian]

23. "Just Wait"

[Warren DeMontague]

29. Can we get our 300 Billion Dollars back now? nt

[wordpix2]

30. thanks, King George, for wasting our blood & treasure: $1 trillion, thou-

sands dead, tens of thousands injured and maimed for life.

Heckjuva job, you dangerous moron, why don't you go back to TX and cut brush for a living?

[Jose Diablo]

32. OK, Iraq splits-up

then the Kurds in Turkey and Iran decide they want their own country, and the Shia inside Saudi Arabia say, "Hey, how come we are always working for those peckerwood Saudis? Why don't we set-up right here".

Well, I'd say the whole apple-cart is about to tip over. And junior wants Israel to decimate Lebanon? LOL, these Neocons have screwed the pooch on this ME deal, that's for sure. The Israeli's, the House of Saud, Turkey, Iran, Iraq the whole thing is about to go belly-up.

When it gets really started, the western world will be lucky to get any oil from the ME. These guys can turn-off the flow of oil in a heartbeat.

[DallasNE]

33. And The Merry-Go-Round Continues

Under cover of the Lebaneze war the Defense Department has announced that plans for troop withdrawal in Iraq have been put on hold. Surprise, surprise.

Stay the course has simply doubled the number of Iraqi civilians killed in the last year. All of the benchmarks that really matter are getting worse.

Once again the American plan will only increase the killing. What else will shifting some of the 55,000 American troops surrounding Baghdad into Baghdad proper cause other than more killing. Right now it is the blind leading the blind in Iraq as the civilian officials in Washington and Baghdad continue to react with surprise to predictable happenings in Iraq. But that is what happens when officials are blinded by their own dogma.

As somebody reminded me today, we still have 2 1/2 years of suffering left before this nightmare can be put to bed. At least I hope the American people have the common sense to put it to bed.

[hopeisaplace]

36. up goes another wall.

Reagan: "tear down that wall"
*: "put up that wall"

lol, sorry, it's not a laughing matter..it's late.:crazy:

[enid602]

38. embassy

How will they divide the new US Embassy?

[Silvermint]

39. You know, the biased "liberal media"...

... never reports all the GOOD news coming out of Iraq concerning the inevitable break-up of the country. They only report the BAD news coming out of Iraq concerning the inevitable break-up of the country. Pshaah.

[shadowknows69]

42. Unity government

Three different unity governments to be exact. Ok, we've admitted the problem. Someone get to drawing the map so we can get out of this mess. Heckuva job spreadin that democracy georgie. East and West Bagdhad does have a nice ring to it. In 35 years some US President can say "Queen Jenna, tear down that wall"

[Vinca]

43. All I can say at this point is

what a fucking catastrophe. And the icing on the cake is the Iraqi government voicing their anti-Israel sentiments and calling our soldiers "butchers." Thank you, King George, for one, fine mess.

[mogster]

44. Iraq is 'hovering on the brink of civil war'

Read that yesterday in Norw. media. One would wonder for how long it will hover before they just call a spade a spade, and call it a civil war.

[MetaTrope]

46. It sure did work for India and Pakistan...

:eyes:

[Hubert Flottz]

47. Spectrumburg, Harkenstien and Rangerland ?

The failure continues! Everything Bush touches turns into deep Doo Doo. The man is a loser and he's the very best, that the GOP has to offer this country!

[creeksneakers2]

48. Fits into the picture

Of Bush and Maliki pulling their troops out of the rest of Iraq and moving them to Baghdad. They must be writing off the rest of Iraq and making a last stand in Baghdad. Rummy said they've already increased troops in the capitol from 40,000 to 55,000 and the violence is worse than ever. So Bush needs to bring more.

Major General William Caldwell, the chief military spokesman, says insurgents are streaming into Baghdad. Caldwell said whoever wins Baghdad will set conditions to stabalize the country. Notice that Caldwell said "whoever", implying that its less than certain we'll win. And that's the US military's version.

Put it all together, and it looks like the Iraqi government is about to collapse. I don't think they are dividing up the country as part of a new strategy. I think they are divvying up what might be left. Once the public becomes aware that a collapse is imminent, I expect complete hell to break loose, with militias taking control. US involvement in Iraq may soon be over.