Inside Israel, Hez Ground War Strategies

[The Straight Story]

Inside Israel, Hez Ground War Strategies

"The ground war has begun," says Stratfor. "Several Israeli brigades now appear to be operating between the Lebanese border and the Litani River. According to reports, Hezbollah forces are dispersed in multiple bunker complexes and are launching rockets from these and other locations."


Hezbollah's strategy appears to be threefold. First, force Israel into costly attacks against prepared fortifications. Second, draw Israeli troops as deeply into Lebanon as possible, forcing them to fight on extended supply lines. Third, move into an Iraqi-style insurgency from which Israel -- out of fear of a resumption of rocket attacks -- cannot withdraw, but which the Israelis also cannot endure because of extended long-term casualties. This appears to have been a carefully planned strategy, built around a threat to Israeli cities that Israel can't afford. The war has begun at Hezbollah's time and choosing...

Hezbollah has implemented its strategy by turning southern Lebanon into a military stronghold, consisting of well-designed bunkers that serve both as fire bases and launch facilities for rockets. The militants appear to be armed with anti-tank weapons and probably anti-aircraft weapons, some of which appear to be of American origin, raising the question of how they were acquired. Hezbollah wants to draw Israel into protracted fighting in this area in order to inflict maximum casualties and to change the psychological equation for both military and political reasons...

Israel is caught between three strategic imperatives. First, it must end the threat to Israeli cities, which must involve the destruction of Hezbollah's launch capabilities south of the Litani River. Second, it must try to destroy Hezbollah's infrastructure, which means it must move into the Bekaa Valley and as far as the southern suburbs of Beirut. Third, it must do so in such a way that it is not dragged into a long-term, unsustainable occupation against a capable insurgency....

Much more at link:

http://www.defensetech.org/

[cali]

1. I find these Stratfor

assessments, really fascinating. Thanks for posting.

[brmdp3123]

2. Very interesting analysis, but

my money is still on Israel.

[The Straight Story]

3. I would go with them as well, but

I think it is going to be quite difficult with a lot of civilian casualties which won't weigh well with many.

[Toots]

9. The Meek shall inherit the Earth

My money is on the Meek.

[htuttle]

4. I'd be certain that they have anti-aircraft weapons...

...probably reasonably effective ones.

This strategy wouldn't work at all without them -- they'd simply be sitting ducks.

[aint_no_life_nowhere]

5. Israel and the U.S. could be playing with fire

The dictatorships and kingdoms in Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia appear to be going along with this, in a way they never have before. But not their populations. If this Israeli incursion traps civilian populations with nowhere to move and turns into a bloodbath for both Sunni and Shiite civilians in Lebanon, it could whip up angry public sentiment throughout the Middle East. If even one of those regimes is brought down, it could get very ugly very fast. I'm not saying it's a likely scenario, but even the remote possibility could be more costly a risk than this is worth.

[bemildred]

6. Watch Saudi Arabia and Pakistan.

This was interesting today:

France, Saudi Arabia To Sign Defense Cooperation Pact Friday

http://www.easybourse.com/Website/dynamic/News.php?NewsID=27890〈=fra&NewsRubrique=2

[SoCalDem]

7. I predict: Lebanon, Iraq style

Car bombs, suicide bombs and indiscriminate killing of innocents..

[The Stranger]

8. Well, you already have Israel indiscriminately killing innocents.

So you are one for three.

[Spazito]

10. Very interesting reading! Thanks for the link n/t