Lamont leads Lieberman 51-47 in new Quinnipiac poll!

[Awsi Dooger]

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2006/07/20/in_connecticut_lamont_grabs_lead_over_lieberman.html

July 20, 2006

In Connecticut, Lamont Grabs Lead Over Lieberman

In the Connecticut U.S. Senate race, Ned Lamont (D) has surged ahead of Sen. Joe Lieberman (D-CT) and now holds a razor-thin 51% to 47% lead among likely Democratic primary voters, according to a new Quinnipiac poll.

In possible general election matchups:

* Lieberman defeats Republican challenger Alan Schlesinger 68% to 15%
* Lamont beats Schlesinger 45% to 22%, with 24% undecided
* Running as an independent, Lieberman gets 51%, to 27% for Lamont and 9% for Schlesinger.

Says pollster Douglas Schwartz: "Lamont is up, while Lieberman's Democratic support is dropping. More Democrats have a favorable opinion of Lamont, who was largely unknown last month, and see him as an acceptable alternative to Lieberman. But Lieberman’s strength among Republicans and independents gives him the lead in a three-way matchup in November."

[OKNancy]

1. Oh man... good news/bad news

interesting

[Awsi Dooger]

4. The general election number would change considerably

If Lamont wins the primary. Whether a 24 point gap could be overcome, that's another matter.

But for anyone worried about throwing the race to the GOP in a 3-way, that 9% for Schlesinger should be ample tonic. He would need a minimum of 33.4% and that's not going to happen.

[calico1]

2. So much for the idea that no one supports Lamont.

Makes me wonder though if Lieberman is trying to lose the primary so that he can run as an Independent? Wouldn't surprise me.

[no_hypocrisy]

3. What I don't understand is why some democrats would switch their votes

from Lamont to Lieberman if he ran as an independent. I'm not convinced it would be due to a republican in the equation. The only thing I can come up with is false polling to give Lieberman false confidence in November where Lamont will still trounce him via ballot.

[NewJeffCT]

5. Lieberman polls well with Republicans & Independents

However, I expect Lamont to get a bounce from winning the primary. I doubt many Dems will switch to vote for Lieberman in the General. The key for Lamont will be appealing to moderates.

Even with the best of efforts, I don't think Schlesinger breaks 20%, and will be lucky to get 15%. Even if Lieberman drops out, Schlesinger would struggle to break 40%.

[calico1]

7. If Lamont wins the primary he will get

the backing of the DNC. More exposure. I suspect some of the numbers are due to the fact that a lot of people (who aren't really paying much attention) don't know much about Lamont. Lieberman is a familiar name. Still, considering he was a total unknown a few months ago and Lieberman has been senator for so long, Lamont is doing extremely well.

[NewJeffCT]

11. I agree on that

When Lowell Weicker first proposed the idea of challenging Lieberman himself because of the war, I thought nobody had a chance to get more than 33% or so against Lieberman in a primary. Boy, was I wrong! And, Lieberman shot himself in the foot with the idea to run as an Independent.

[charlie]

13. Joe has made so many boners

it's astonishing how truly inept he is in a real Senatorial campaign. I had no idea he had so much rust to knock off. I was reading at Atrios a couple of days ago that it turns out he essentially has no ground structure in the state and is spending money like water trying to build one in these last few weeks. It's really looking like it might not be just possible, but probable that he'll lose the primary.

[calico1]

14. I think the problem he has is he has never

had to fight for his seat before. He has taken it totally for granted and was not prepared for this. Like his supporters I don't think he took Lamont seriously enough. Lamont has tons of enthusiastic supporters here while Lieberman is scrambling. His "campaigning" before consisted of throwing out a few ads here and there. He never had any real competition from the Republican candidates.

[charlie]

15. Y'know, what really steamed my clams

was the debate. Not that Joe was aggressive, bullying, disdainful, and fudging facts. I'd expect that from someone who really thought he had something to lose. It's when I remember his cheery bonhomie in the debate with Cheney, when SO MUCH MORE was on the line, that I want to wring his chicken neck.

[Dudley_DUright]

23. on the line for us

but not for Holy Joe. He was simultaneously running for senate at the time and knew he had the cushy senate gig to fall back on. Not this time.

[Cha]

29. STand in

line!

[REACTIVATED IN CT]

35. And he was downright rude to Lamont at the end

Ned walked over to him to shake hands and LIEberman walked away from him, heading instead to the moderator

[krkaufman]

48. Excellent point. Thanks for making it. n/t

[me b zola]

58. Has the DCCC changed their stance yet?

It would be good for the party if they did the right thing and support the Democratic winner of the primary and back it up with bucks.

[charlie]

6. Smaller percentage of Democrats

vote in the primary. In the general, all Democrats vote and that's where they figure the Lieberman support will come from. That's my guess, anyway.

[HamdenRice]

9. Democrats won't switch, but Republicans will

From conversations I've had with freepers, Lieberman is wildly popular with Republicans. If he runs as an independent he will get a certain portion of the Democrats who will remain loyal to him (for past constituent services) and a very large number of Republicans will vote for him. That's the coalition he has in mind when he thinks of running against the Democratic nominee.

[kohodog]

17. There are many Dems who don't vote in the primary.

Also, about a third of CT voters are registered as unaffiliated and cannot vote in the primary. But that does not absolve Lieberman from becoming an independent in my mind. Joe is all about Joe. He is bigger than the party, bigger than the people. I will never vote for him again in any capacity. Period.

[Lasher]

8. Wow, this is the first poll that puts Lamont ahead!

Lamont's worst showing was in a May 2 Quinnipiac poll, with only 19% against Lieberman's 65%. Quite an improvement there! Here's some historical polling information:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Connecticut_United_States_Senate_election%2C_2006#Democratic_primary

[texasleo]

10. Joementum has met its equal or opposite reaction

good!

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

24. Lamontum?

:shrug:

[LynzM]

27. Nedrenaline!

:bounce:

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

28. Touche.

[JugDack]

33. Okay, now my milk is coming out my nose....thanks a lot! ;-)

Funniest thing I've seen all day! LOL!

[krkaufman]

50. Well, this *is* Joementum.

"Joementum" is best exemplified by his statement following the 2004 New Hampshire primary...

“Thanks to the people of New Hampshire, we are in a three-way split decision for third place,” he said.

See: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4081410/

[Clark2008]

12. Bring on the Diebold!

eom

[CTLawGuy]

18. won't be coming

no Diebold in CT. We use the old lever machines.

[Cha]

30. Oooooh! I bet

lie-man is worried..hack proof voting machines.

If lie-man loses the primary and goes on to the general as an Independent with the hopes of the votes from the republicons who he's "wildly popular" with and wins then he will in essence be the republicon senator from Connecticut!

[The Anti-Neo Con]

16. Good to hear.

Please let Lamont beat that repuke Lieberman!

[Donald Ian Rankin]

19. Hmm.

My reading of this is that the general election is essentially irrelevant; the important one is the Democratic primary, as it will determine whether the Senator for Connecticut is Lieberman (D) or Lieberman (I). Still, there's still a month for things to change in.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

20. The only thing more absurd would be if

Joe ran as an independent
AND
Joe ran as the GOP candidate
AND
Joe tried to get on the Democratic ballot with some litigation.

all at the same time.

[calico1]

25. I wouldn't put it past him to attempt it

if it were any way possible.

[monarch]

21. New Haven Register has it as "Lamont pulls even"

"HAMDEN, Conn. (AP) -- Democratic challenger Ned Lamont has pulled into a dead heat in his U.S. Senate race with incumbent Joe Lieberman, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released Thursday.

"The poll shows Lamont ahead 51-47 percent among likely voters in the Aug. 8 Democratic primary. That compares to a 55-40 percent lead for Lieberman in a similar poll in June.

"The telephone survey of 2,502 registered voters was conducted July 13-18. It has a sampling error margin of about 2 percentage points. But the error margin among the 653 likely Democratic primary voters is 3.8 percentage points, putting the candidates in a statistical dead heat.

...

"More Democrats have a favorable opinion of Lamont, who was largely unknown last month, and see him as an acceptable alternative to Lieberman," said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz. "But Lieberman's strength among Republicans and independents gives him the lead in a three-way matchup in November."


http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/C/CT_SENATE_POLL_CTOL-?SITE=CTNHR&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

[REACTIVATED IN CT]

36. Their editorial board supports LIEberman n/t

[CTyankee]

45. The Register said Lamont won the debate, tho

I haven't seen an endorsement yet. Maybe the Register did support Lieberman in the past. Well, we'll see come endorsement time!

What I want to see is the endorsement of the NY Times in the fall election if Ned wins the primary.

[KharmaTrain]

22. I Don't See Undecideds Listed On the Three Way Race

That could be as high as 24 percent (like in the Lamont/Schlessinger head-to-head) and really mess up the MOE in that poll.

Also, there's definitely no guarantee that Liebermann will get a strong cross-over of Repugnican or Democrats...the party "faithful"...who'd rather sit out the election, if they don't approve of their party's nominee" than go for a third party. Joe-mentum has misread the tea leaves about what makes a third party work...it's having a populist support...such as a Jesse Ventura...being an outsider rather than protecting one's longtime seat.

Be assured that if Lamont wins the nomination, it'll be a 10 to 15 point bump for him among undecideds as those who didn't want to commit...waiting to see how the primary plays out...now will stand with the party nominee. Joe's burnt a lot of bridges within the state's party apparatus and will have to rely on renting his own "ground team"...this will also be a major disadvantage to Joe, but will provide lots of amusement to all of us.

Lamont's looking good with only a couple weeks to go...he needs to keep Joe and his spinners going in all different directions and stay focused on what's gotten him to where he is right now.

[russian33]

26. he-he, I helped

I got a call from Quinnipiac last thursday...oh man, did I enjoy answering their questions!

[Rose Siding]

31. That's a 32pt gain for Ned since May

and an 18pt drop for Joe. And Ned more than doubled his numbers in the 3-way within those two months.

http://lamontblog.blogspot.com/2006/05/quinnipiac-lieberman-65-lamont-19.html

:party:

edit- Actually, that's Rasmussen. Quinnipiac still has him up 32% since May, and up 11% since early June.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x11362.xml?ReleaseID=922

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

57. This suggests the more people pay attention, the less they like Joe, and

the more they like Ned.

[skipos]

32. If Joe actually runs as an indy, his numbers will go down and

Ned's numbers will go up IMO. The DNC support and press coverage will benefit Ned, the bailout from Joe will piss off more Democrats.

Step one is winning the primary, and Ned is on his way to doing that.

[MercutioATC]

47. Joe will NOT run as an Indy. He formed his own political party.

http://www.newsday.com/news/local/wire/connecticut/ny-bc-ct--senate-connecticu0710jul10,0,7530996.story?coll=ny-region-apconnecticut

[KamaAina]

54. A new party called "Connecticut for Lieberman"?!

Lieberman also filed papers with the secretary of the state's office Monday to create a new party called Connecticut for Lieberman.

Not much of a party, is it? Even if they round up everyone else named "Lieberman" in the whole state, Yahoo! People Search shows only 61, which wouldn't be enough to cover all the legislative seats. :-)

When Lowell Weicker formed his breakaway party, it was called "A Connecticut Party", with no self-aggrandizement on Weicker's part. It actually outlasted his term as Governor, briefly.

edit: gotta go bold

[kentuck]

34. I cannot believe Repubs will vote Independent...

not even for oe Lieberman. And many of the Democratic voters will desert him if he runs Third Party. Joementum has come to a standstill. Sorry Joe...

[REACTIVATED IN CT]

38. The Repub candidate is

an unknown (former mayor of a minor town) who now has a bit of scandal surrounding him - using a false name on a "Wampum" card at a CT casino several years back.

[calico1]

44. I think a lot of Republicans will sit out the election,

if Joe loses the primary, especially now that Bill Clinton will stump for him.

[REACTIVATED IN CT]

49. I think you are right about this n/t

[The Wizard]

37. Old Joe is a go along

to get along political hack. That worked in a time before Ku Klux Karl and Koulter made political discourse a blood sport. Failing to fight back with equal or greater force indicates weakness. We don't need any more weak- kneed capitulating Democrats in a time when the jihadists (aka GOP) are destroying the last vestiges of Democracy. The times have changed and Old Joe hasn't. He's willing to bend over and take it in the ass as long as the Repubes give him lubricant and a rubber.

[mkb]

39. Just Work It Out

     Making mistakes is part of life.  I've certainly made my
share.  What is important is intent and hopefully learning so
that you improve.  Your contributions can still outweigh your
mistakes.
     I requested that people consider voting for Lieberman as
a lesser evil candidate, without realizing that he was
probably going to run as an independent.
     I'm sorry.
     I have not changed my mind, however, about the general
principle of favoring gradual retreat for progressives rather
than risking severe repression from the right while trying for
too much. The situation calls for caution unless it's clear
otherwise.  The situation here seems to be fairly
straightforward, being that Lieberman is most likely to run as
an independent.  The more difficult problem will be who to
vote for in the general election.
     We are now in a position of relative weakness, but things
change, and hopefully for the better.  We must consider the
long term as much or more as the present.  I made some
comments on Stan Goff's website regarding these ideas, and you
can read them there, remembering that they keep track of
internet activity.  I also think spelling your name
differently minimizes risk. 
     
      

[AllNamesHaveBeenUsed]

40. Bill Clinton will campaign for Lieberman...

I wonder if that will shift the tide:

http://www.wtnh.com/Global/story.asp?S=5174739&nav=3YeX

[A Simple Game]

42. It should.

Joe can now kiss goodby any Republican votes he was expecting to get.

If Big Dog is for it, Republicans are against it. That's the law.

[calico1]

43. If you mean Democrats, no it won't.

At least not for anyone who has already made up their mind. What he can hope to do is get people to vote that had not intended to. But getting Lamont supporters to switch because Bill Clinton says so? No, that is not going to happen. The Lamont supporters are also far more motivated and organized. If Lamont wins the primary this will come back to haunt Lieberman. The Republicans he is counting on are not going to be impressed by his having Bill Clinton of all people campaign for him.

[blue state liberal]

61. Short Memory

I read the above link in your post, AllNames, and discovered that Bill Clinton had worked in Lieberman's state senate campaign back in 1970 while a student at Yale.

They sure do go back a long way. And my (ex) hero is standing by Leiberman's stance on the war> sigh....But I seem to remember back in the late 90's when Bill was involved in The Scandal I think Lieberman was one of the first senators to excoriate him publicly. There was a televised speech showing him speaking out against him. Hmmm - I guess the Democratic president's personal indiscretions were much more heinous to the democratic senator than all the Republican president's sh--!!

[Bretttido]

41. Wohoo, you go Lamont!

:applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause:

[longship]

46. That's okay.

Things can change dramatically between now and November. Lamont is moving in the right direction. By November, it's possible that Lamont could be in good shape against a Lieberman independant run.

[tgnyc]

51. Could the democrats who pledged to support the Dem nominee change the

balance if it's Lamont-Lieberman in the general?

[Jack Rabbit]

52. The Democrats could pick up this seat from Lieberman

But the Congressional Democrats won't hear of it.

[Beaverhausen]

53. When is the primary?

:hi:

[Awsi Dooger]

55. August 8

n/t

[Initech]

56. Lieberman needs to take a hike.

[TankLV]

59. Woo hoo! GREAT news! Made my afternoon.

"holy" joe can kiss bunkerboy's ass - oh, wait, he has, continually, literally!

[global1]

60. Just Watch Out For The Kiss of Death Words In Relation To This Race......

"it's too close to call".

[Seattleman]

62. LIE-berman shows his true colors

LIE-berman is showing his true colors. He has proven himself to be more concerned about continuing the occupation of Iraq than he is with finding out why the Bush Administration and it's Neo-Conartist gang thought that it was necessary to lie to and manipulate the American people into invading Iraq in the first place.

What is still absent from the public debate is WHY did the Neo-Conartists REALLY want the US to invade and occupy Iraq?

It wasn't because of WMD, it wasn't because of oil, it wasn't because they really care about the Iraqi civilians.

Why, why, why?