Here We Go Again: by Larry Johnson

[kpete]

Here We Go Again

Larry C Johnson

If you labor under the delusion the George Bush, Dick Cheney, Condi Rice, and Don Rumsfeld learned from the mistakes they made in Iraq, think again. Only this time, they are screwing the pooch with respect to the U.S. policy toward the latest Israeli-Lebanese war. Two of their greatest fantasies are:

Insisting that Syria is somehow behind the decision of Hezbollah to kidnap the Israeli soldiers because they want to reoccupy Lebanon.

Buying into the Israeli nonsense that they can "secure" southern Lebanon with only an air campaign.

News flash for the chuckleheads--Hezbollah's principle sponsor and benefactor is Iran. That has been the case for the last 24 years. While Syrian leaders have been extra careful to have a positive relationship with Hezbollah, there is substantial evidence that Hezbollah has done more to protect Syria than vice versa. For the moment Syrians are frozen with disbelief. They cannot believe how quickly events have erupted into war and that they are being blamed for it.

...................................

.................If Israel takes Iran's bait, then Israel will find itself battling an Iraq-style insurgency and Tehran can sit back and enjoy the spectacle of watching the United States try to salvage a democracy in Lebanon while supporting Israel, who is destroying its democratic neighbor to the north, and rally a distracted international community to punish Iran who is busy consolidating its control over the militia, police, and intelligence service in Iraq. Got it?

http://noquarter.typepad.com/my_weblog/2006/07/here_we_go_agai.html

[Quixote1818]

1. Kick for importance and recomended

[bleever]

2. This train is moving very fast. Where's the driver? The brakeman?

Did someboy get them drunk, or hire a knucklehead on purpose? Or both?

It's time for us to have a real president. Not in 2009; right now.

[Quixote1818]

3. It's frustrating isn't it?

It's like I see all these fucked up things happening all over the world, and they are problems that can possible be worked out and solved, and yet we have these boobs just fucking up everything even worse than they already are. It's not only frustrating but scary! These idiots are just flat out dangerous!

We are fucked bleever, simply powerless to do anything about the insanity.

:banghead:

[chill_wind]

4. Differs somewhat with Juan Cole analysis about Iran?

(...)

The Levant is now a joint US-Israeli sphere of Influence. Egypt and Jordan both have peace treaties with Israel and are non-NATO allies of the US. So they won't do more than politely disagree that Israel's wholesale destruction of Lebanon's infrastructure is useful. Turkey is part of the joint US-Israeli sphere of influence, with close military ties to both countries. Iraq is now working the American training wheels, in Bush's parlance, and although it has not formally joined the full US-Israeli sphere of influence, it has no military to speak of and basically its legs are broken. The Gulf monarchies have more or less acquiesced in the situation as well.

Syria and Iran are the only two significant dissenters. Syria is weak and isolated, having been expelled from Lebanon and having lost its Soviet patron a decade and a half ago. Iran is distant from the scene and although it might give some rockets and training to a group like Hizbullah, it does not have a history of direct military intervention in other countries anyway. The Lebanese should not hold their breath expecting succor from either quarter.

The European Powers all ceded the Levant to the US-Israeli sphere of influence a long time ago. They will not get out ahead of the US. They mostly deeply dislike the Apartheid policies of Israel in the Occupied Territories, but they also deeply dislike and fear Hamas and Hizbullah, having their own large Muslim populations that they don't want radicalized.

They probably realize, as David Clark wrote yesterday that Israel's policies are antithetical to the interests of Western governments. But they decline to challenge the US-Israeli sphere of influence because they believe it would cause them even more trouble to do so.

(...)



see italics (mine)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=364x1669604

[peacetalksforall]

5. I wish something could be done about the press and the little, serious

things. They are going full steam ahead, blaming Syria and Iran for everything. Every gun, every missile, every defense, according to our press, is the fault of Syria and Iran. How convenient. No digging. No proving. No discourse.

Could not someone tell us that some of the weapons did not come from Syria and Iran? Or is it possible that everything Hezbollah does and uses comes from Syria and Iran?

Syria and Iran. The two countries prove PNAC right 100% of the time?

Thanks for the post LJ. This all needs to be analyzed here and now. Thanks for your insight.

[Straight Shooter]

6. bush's sh*t comment was his handlers' way of dropping the gauntlet.

There were those on DU who proposed the theory that bush's remarks were no accident, he knew the mic was on when he said Syria could rein in Hizbollah (Hezbollah?).

bush and his gang sure have no interest in anything but war. But then again, it isn't their blood being spilled, nor the blood of their family.

I miss Clinton and Carter more than ever, in times like these. :(

[Pachamama]

7. Thanks for posting Larry Johnson's take on things Kpete!

He gives a very interesting perspective on the matters at hand with his knowledge and background in intelligence....

Now I know an effed up situation is actually even more effed up than I could have imagined! And the situations outcome is going to really be a mess, no matter how you slice it.

The one thing I keep asking myself though: Do the Neo-nuts and this Administration plot this all out or do they just roll the dice and say "Let's see what happens?" Either way, they seem to benefit from the mess that results....

[DemReadingDU]

8. K&R