possible upset in Nevada Senate Race? Jack Carter comin' on strong

[WI_DEM]

I've always included Nevada as one of the Senate seats where Democrats have a potential upset--a dark horse victory which is somewhat unexpected but sometimes happens if there is a big swing against the party in power.

Jack Carter, the son of ex-president Jimmy Carter is running for the Senate seat occupied by John Ensign. Ensign doesn't have very good approval numbers and Nevada, like many states in the west like Colorado and Montana has been getting more purple rather than red.

The latest polls: A new WSJ poll shows the race tightening:
Ensign: 50%
Carter: 36%

In May Research 2000 gave Ensign a 52-32 point lead.

In April Mason-Dixon gave Ensign a 60-27 point lead.

The polls are tightening and while Carter is still the underdog with a well financed and grass roots centered race he potentially can win this especially if election day indicates a great deal of frustration with the in-party.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2006/6/28/113312/844

[skipos]

1. I think VA or TN are more likely to be surprise victories for us

but you never know. Turnout will be key.

[WI_DEM]

2. but I don't see VA as that much of a surprise because it has

tightened considerably since the primary and in TN Ford has been running close in the polls all along. I consider NV a true dark horse, many pundits believe that VA and TN are doable.

[BeachBuckeye]

3. I hope we're not getting too excited by some of these numbers

Santorum is about 17 pts. down and we're claiming that he is "toast". But Ensign is up by 14 and its a "possible upset". Hope I'm full of it on this but I just don't want to count chickens before they are hatched.

[skipos]

6. The difference is, Santorum has no momentum

Webb in VA, Lamont in CT, Whitehouse in RI, Carter in NV, etc definitely have momentum. Hopefully it continues.

[WI_DEM]

8. I didn't think I was being excited--but guarded--I used words like

"dark horse" "possible upset" "underdog" and "if" there is a turn on the in-party. But there is optimism too because his poll numbers have been steadily improving. The problem with Santorum is that he has consistently been double digits behind and making no improvement.

[in_cog_ni_to]

4. He's moving up in the polls! That's a good sign. Maybe, just maybe

we could pick up that seat in a surprise victory? Wouldn't that be sweet?! He still has 5 months to campaign. Has he used his dad at all to help him? His dad is loved for the Humanitarian work he does. I HOPE he's using him. Maybe he should call in Clinton too.

[dysfunctional press]

5. i didn't even know he was running...

one of my favourite tv character actors, too...

[Emit]

7. I'm working my ass off in NV to make this happen!

We're walking and talking, door to door, to try to upseat Ensign in the Senate and replace him with Carter.

I've been told that that seat has never been held by a Dem -- don't know if that's true, but it wouldn't surprise me if that is the case.

Carter has a lot of disadvantages he must overcome, but rumor has it he's doing well with strategy in the rural areas -- where he needs to campaign the most. He's pretty plain spoken with these folks. I understand, too, from some folks I spoke with recently that he will be doing some unique campaigning, like maybe checking out some of the local gun shops and talking to constituents in these types of places -- I think that's a great idea to correct the mis-perception that the Dems want to take their guns away.

And our Dem Congressional candidate, Jill Derby, might have a good chance, too, especially considering how the Repug primary might turn out (there are three Repugs vying for the vote in the primary, and things are heating up with attack ads, etc.) We may end up with the weakest Repug candidate after all is said and done, and Derby, a native Nevadan with lots of good ole' boy connections, might come out the winner. Even if the strongest Repug wins, Derby will have a good chance of winning, IMHO.

[dave29]

9. Good work!!

Glad we have you on the ground!!

[Emit]

10. Thanks!

Glad to be on the ground to try to turn NV blue!!