Pacification: I think BushCo may well have a very definite plan for Iraq.

[Junkdrawer]

NOTE: The following is just a guess based on many, many events that seem to suggest it as a possible BushCo strategy. It is extremely brutal and I hope I'm wrong.

Pretend that you have absolutely no morals whatsoever and that your goal is to capture and exploit the world’s largest underexploited oil reserves - Iraq. You don’t want to start the pumping while your Saudi business partners still can meet demand, so let’s say your time frame to start pumping is 5 to 10 years out. Your problems are:

1.) The population of the country is 65%+ Shia, many with links to Iran and many more decidedly Anti-American.
2.) Immediate installation of a Pro-American puppet regime would be opposed, not only by Iraqis, but also by most of the world, especially Iran, Russia and China.
3.) Oil fields and pipelines are easy sabotage targets for any well-manned insurgency.

So invading with a sufficient force to bring post-invasion stability brings a Shiite regime with a pro-Iranian tilt. Joy, just what you don’t want. So what do you do? Try this little three phase plan:

Phase I:
Invade with a force sufficient to overcome Saddam’s weakened defenses, but insufficient to create stability. Leave plenty of weapon caches lying about because you want an insurgency. Why? Because an insurgency provides cover for:
1.) The expulsion of the U.N.
2.) The expulsion of unfriendly media
3.) The building of permanent military bases
The insurgency also creates the core of a brutal, professional colonial army – something you’ll need for Phase III.

Phase II:
Instigate a civil war and then retreat to the bases you built in Phase I. You can, at this point, talk about an “orderly withdrawal” because you really just need a small core of provocateurs to keep the civil war raging. This is when the real killings occur – the pacification if you will. The idea is to reduce the population of anyone who will oppose your later occupation. The magnitude of the killings during this phase will be so severe that there will actually be cries for your return, both at home and within the international community. See Bosnia.

Phase III:
Remember those military bases and the brutal, professional colonial army you built during Phase I? Now is when you use them to bring about your actual goal: a puppet government propped up by a brutal military presence. You can refer anyone who complains at this point to the atrocities of Phase II and suggest that your forced stability is the lesser of two evils. Oh, by the way, you can pump the oil now.

Well, there you have it. As I said, I hope I’m wrong.

[patrice]

1. I think you're generally right, but IMO, some important aspects are more

LIHOP, taking advantage of what others do in this set of circumstances.

[shadowknows69]

2. More than a million Iraqis have fled their own country

We have no interest in building a safe, united Iraq for these people.

[Junkdrawer]

7. I keep coming back to this: If all they wanted was a stable democracy...

why not involve the UN more? Why not commit enough troops up front?

What was especially creepy was that Richard Perle said shortly after the invasion that chaos would come if we stayed more that a few months:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=364&topic_id=1392356

...all the while the NeoCons were planning the permanent military bases.

[shugh514]

3. After reading this post

this morning:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=115&topic_id=58096

I had a similar thought that they just may keep Iraq unstable and sit on the oil until the Saudi fields run out and the oil is much more valuable.

[Junkdrawer]

5. Thanks for the link...

:thumbsup:

[rwenos]

4. You're Spot On - I'd Only Make One Refinement

And that is, as I posted elsewhere, the Phase II and Phase III time spans will be characterized by oil scarcity, since with the political and military flux in Iraq, the oil cannot be exported in volume as great as before the US invasion. (As we all know, current Iraqi oil production is DOWN from the Saddam years, not up as promised.)

This oil scarcity during Phases II and III affects world oil supply by depressing it. That raises prices on confirmed reserves controlled by US-affiliated multinational oil companies.

The oil companies, oil service companies, oil refiners and oil retailers ALL make more money. They contribute money to Republican politicians.

Otherwise, you may not WANT to be right, but you ARE right.

[Junkdrawer]

6. We'll see. If this is correct, Phase I is ending and Phase II...

is just about to start.

But you're right. The trickle of oil coming out of Iraq now will stop in a large civil war.

[Junkdrawer]

8. .

[LibertyorDeath]

9. Bravo !

I see you've been paying attention.
:toast:

I do not mean that facetiously.

[Junkdrawer]

11. Thanks.

:hi:

[WHAT]

10. Fool's Gold...

all opposable thumbs...and no ears.

What you're proposing could be true but it is all so self-important that it is stupid. Time will tell.

[sweetheart]

12. Their plan is for america

They could give a fuck about iraq, its a dumping ground for radioactive chemicals,
and now that they've poisoned the ground, they could give a fuck.

The bush people see this as the best way to destroy the constitution and weaken the
power of the US government. By going awol and committing trillions of future dollars
to a failed stupidity, they can guarantee that the federal government and ALL its
programmes goes bankrupt. Then they are the hero's of their revolution. Start a war,
bankrupt the treasury, and sell off the empire on the backhand.

[LibertyorDeath]

13. Kick

:)

[Mandate My Ass]

14. I hope you're wrong too but fear you're right

Remember this story that went right down the memory hole last fall? This was obviously a false flag operation gone awry.

Basra Bizarre: SAS Commandos Arrested and Sprung

Comment: After initial reports that the soldiers were wearing Arab garb and driving a car packed with bombs, the media stopped discussing the consequences of that admission altogether and solely focused on the rescue operation. This is clear evidence that provocateur actions are at the root of the constant carnage in Iraq. Remember, they wanted to carve Iraq up and have the factions at each others throats.

A full report on this will follow later.

Two British commandos, members of the secretive SAS were arrested by Iraqi police yesterday in the southern Iraqi city of Basra. The two men, dressed in Arab garb and driving an unmarked car, drew the attention of police. As the car was approached, shots were fired. Conflicting reports make the timeline of the exchange of fire unclear, and there are also discrepancies concerning caualties, some saying one policeman was wounded and/or killed, others claiming two police dead, while still others claim none were killed. But what is clear: the two soldiers were taken into custody and questioned by an Iraqi judge.

Some hours after the incident, British reinforcements arrived at the jail, demanding the release of their colleagues. When refused, the British knocked down at least one wall of the jail. Reports with either a tank, several tanks, or armoured personnel carrier: again accounts are diverse. Everyone does agree; there was helicopter support for the rescue operation, and at least one tank was later set afire by angry mobs, hurling stones and petrol bombs. Crowds had apparently been drawn to the jail by flying squads of rabble-rousers, blaring news of a killed policeman and the arrest of the British over car-mounted loudspeakers.

http://www.prisonplanet.com/articles/september2005/200905basrabizarre.htm

[Junkdrawer]

15. Minstrel Boy cataloged quite a few incidents:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=125&topic_id=92532&mesg_id=92532