CA 50: Election Results thread

[brooklynite]

Polls close in 10 minutes (8:00 PDT). Results will be available from the San Diego Times-Union

[stevedeshazer]

1. Link to San Diego County registrar of voters here

http://www.sdvote.org/election/congress.xml

[Grebrook]

2. Here's the link to the results when they come in

http://www.sdvote.org/election/congress.xml

Edit: beaten :(

[W_HAMILTON]

3. Scared me for a second...

Thought you meant that the results were already in, and that Busby was defeated :)

[stevedeshazer]

5. Not beaten,

Thinking alike! :)

[longship]

4. Another link

North County Times Election Results

[stevedeshazer]

6. Early returns:

BRIAN BILBRAY - REP



20448



50.60%

FRANCINE BUSBY - DEM



17329



42.88%

W. GRIFFITH - IND



1846



4.57%

PAUL KING - LIB



792



1.96%

edited to add:

Precincts: 500
Counted: 57
Percentage: 11.4%

[Gabi Hayes]

7. I give up

it's over.....

it's allllll over

[stevedeshazer]

9. Way too soon n/t

[BayCityProgressive]

10. wow

she wasn't even close...

[BeFree]

11. NGU

Isn't this a big republican district?

And wasn't this seat held by that crook Cunningham?

[Lasher]

12. Yes and yes (EOM)

[stevedeshazer]

13. Yes on both counts

Busby (D) outspent more than 3-1

[stepnw1f]

15. That's Good to Hear

the odds were against Busby. So change is on the horizon.

And Bibray could go down for receiving money directly from Abramoff.

[tinfoilinfor2005]

16. And out-trashed 10-1 n/t

[Nikki Stone 1]

8. Absentee votes. Usually run conservative. 50.6/42.88 Bilbray

Let's see what happens.

[Rose Siding]

44. Are you KIDDING? Are those the absentees?

The GOP predicted a LEAD of TEN THOUSAND on absentees. That's what the repub chair said -it's at Hotline.

[Nikki Stone 1]

46. Clearly they were wrong

..

[Rose Siding]

50. It's weird-

This is the Hotline report from several hours ago-

From The Chairman ...
NRCC Chair Tom Reynolds (NY) said earlier today that, based on an analysis of absentee returns in CA 50, ex-Rep. Brian Bilbray (R) held about a 10K vote lead. Reynolds added, however, that he wouldn’t make any predictions at this early stage.

Now he's posted this-

Bilbray Leads In Absentee Tally
The first real numbers from CA 50 are in. With the first round of absentee ballots reporting, Brian Bilbray lead Francine Busby, 51 to 43%. Unless Busby’s numbers improve, Dems will fall short of the spin “victory” they hope to claim tomorrow in this so-called “bellwether” race.

http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/

But that doesn't match with a predicted lead of 10K, does it?

[Halliburton]

61. not bad

according to then national journal, republicans were predicting a 10K lead for bilbray with absentees. better than expected.

[ShaneGR]

14. If that race is within 10%, its a good sign...

Cunningham won by like 20%, it's a heavy Republican district.

[Nikki Stone 1]

17. The polls have only been closed for 11 minutes. These are Absentee votes

I'd give it another couple hours at least.

THese starting figures are good for this Republican district.

And the pugs have been throwing mud for a month

[bigdarryl]

19. The Dem's need to get there stuff together

It appears again that even with the prediction on repubs doing bad this year this CA-50 seems to be going republican AGAIN!! the Dem's need to get there strategy in order to take this House back and stop listening to the media saying all these seats the repubs are going to loose. Its a setup by the media i heard some pundit the other day say the repubs could loose 30 seats. don't believe this BS the Dem's are going to have to work like hell to take the house back and so far they haven't

[Grebrook]

18. 54% Bilbray, 45% Busby, that's not an increase from Kerry's win in 04'

in that district. This is a district that was represented by a Republican who took bribes. It doesn't look like the anti-illegal immigrant candidate has taken any votes at all away from Bilbray.

[jackbourassa]

21. Settle down guys

These are absentee. In California, absentee ballots always go for the Republicans. Those who voted at the polls today did so overwhelmingly for Busby. Primarily because of the state Democratic primary for Governor.

Remember the results during the special election on Arnie's reforms in the fall? Remember how initially we were down by a lot? Then we kept picking up little by little until we won the whole thing! Remember?

So take a deep breath and wait. Let's see how this comes out. We might lose, we knew this from the beginning - it is a heavily Republican district - but I seriously doubt we'll lose by this much.

[Nikki Stone 1]

31. THANK YOU. I've been trying to say this since the first results came in

Absentee votes sway republican

[yngliberal]

20. I'm getting different results...

http://vote.ss.ca.gov/Returns/usrep/5000.htm

They are basically the same results but it has Busby leading.

[mconvente]

22. That's for the primary for the 50th come november

So, if Busby doesn't win now, she will face off the repuke again in nov.

[stevedeshazer]

23. Those are primary votes by party, that already happened

Now it's Busby v. Bilbray only. :)

[lumberingbear]

25. Aren't those the results for the run for congress in the fall.

Two elections.
1. to take Cunningham's seat now and
2. to have primary election for battle in the fall for the next 2 year term.

(I think that is right)

[msongs]

24. for governor dem 1+ dem 2 votes = more than arnold :-)

Msongs
www.msongs.com
batik & digital art
get YOUR pics on shirts!

[jackbourassa]

28. Angelides is leading Westly by 3.2%

And the total number of Democratic votes in CA-50 for the Democratic primary is more than 2 to 1 higher than the Republican. If this translates into a trend, we may do very well indeed - given that 90% of Democrats supported Busby vs. only 52% of Republicans who supported Bilray.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

26. Was there a major get out the vote effort by Dems there?

[msongs]

33. dont think so. However combined dems vote greater than rep votes ->

for all statewide offices the combined total of all the dems is much higher than the combined total of all the repubs with about %3 in.

this means bowen will beat macpherson for sec of state and the dem for governor is ahead of arnold.

both are good.

Msongs
www.msongs.com
batik & digital art
get YOUR pics on shirts!

[BigBearJohn]

90. I had 3 people knocking on my door in Carlsbad, saying vote DEM

So YES they were out there, knocking on doors!
Plus I was called 5 times today, asking me vote Dem!

[jean]

27. Lawrence O’Donnell says Bilbray has residency issues. He was on Franken's

show and they discussed Bibray using Virginia as his state of residency. His kids cite Virginia as their state of residency, allowing them to pay in-state tuition rates.

If Bilbray wins, according to Lawrence and Al, there should be a significant problem over this residency issue.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

30. Why wasn't this made an issue prior to the day of the election? Shouldn't

the guy have been ineligible to run in the first place?

[jean]

34. I don't know anything about the leadup to this (am in MN) but heard

the guys discussing it today. It sounded to me like Bilbray is just another fraudulent republican. You'd think CA voters would be exquisitely sensitive to any taint of fraud or corruption. We'll have to wait and see how it works out.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

35. I'd think it'd be a lot harder to challenge these things after the fact

than to make an issue of them during the campaign to help make the guy lose the vote?

[KingFlorez]

29. BILBRAY 50.60% BUSBY 42.88%

[mconvente]

32. results havent updated in a while n/t

[warrior1]

36. Busby ahead.

District 50 - Democratic 11.4% ( 57 of 500 ) precincts reporting

Chris Raye Young 1,405 10.4
Francine Busby 12,036 89.6

District 50 - Republican 11.4% ( 57 of 500 ) precincts reporting

Howard Kaloogian 1,001 4.7
Scott Turner 236 1.1
Victor E. Ramirez 364 1.7
Alan K. Uke 574 2.7
Scott C. Orren 282 1.3
Bill Hauf 2,209 10.6
Richard Earnest 339 1.6
Brian P. Bilbray 11,071 52.9
Eric Roach 3,347 16.0
Bill Morrow 1,542 7.4

[Grebrook]

39. That's April's primary, wrong election

[bigdarryl]

43. Wrong results

So why the hell is it dated June 6 2006 if its the wrong results

[Innocent Smith]

47. No

That is today's primary. There are two seperate elections going on today - the run-off and the primary. There will be a rematch in November no matter who wins the run-off today.

[LSK]

37. state link here:

http://vote.ss.ca.gov/Returns/usrep/5000.htm

11% reporting

Francine Busby 12,036
Brian P. Bilbray 11,071

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

48. I Found That One Also - Shows Busby Ahead By 1,000

I'm confused. I've seen 3 different results, all with about 11% reporting. The state link looks like the current results, even says so:

U.S. Congress District 50
11.4% ( 57 of 500 ) precincts reporting as of Jun 6, 2006 at 8:41 pm

Districtwide Returns County Returns | Other Contests

Previous District Select District Next District

Candidate Votes Percent

Democratic
Chris Raye Young 1,405 10.4
Francine Busby 12,036 89.6

Republican
Howard Kaloogian 1,001 4.7
Scott Turner 236 1.1
Victor E. Ramirez 364 1.7
Alan K. Uke 574 2.7
Scott C. Orren 282 1.3
Bill Hauf 2,209 10.6
Richard Earnest 339 1.6
Brian P. Bilbray 11,071 52.9
Eric Roach 3,347 16.0
Bill Morrow 1,542 7.4

Libertarian
Paul King 112 100.0

Peace & Freedom
Miriam E. Clark 13 100.0

* = Incumbent

[Mr_Spock]

59. Those are primary results

the runoff is separate.

[Sydnie]

38. Kicking this so I can find it in the morning

Good Luck Busby!

Edit - for stupidity! LOL

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

40. Results With 11% Reporting

U.S. House 50th Count: 11%
Brian Bilbray 54.13%
Francine Busby 45.87%

[Grebrook]

41. Everyone is quoting the wrong source, that's last April's numbers

Everyone is quoting April's numbers. If you see more than one Democrat or more than one Republican in the same race, it's a primary, not a general. The latest results, at 11%, are Bilbray ahead by 54%-45%

[msongs]

42. rocky delgadillo losing his OWn county - yay jerry B nt

[ruggerson]

45. Here's another link:

http://www.nbcsandiego.com/politics/9325500/detail.html

[jackbourassa]

51. This is what you all have to remember

1. The GOP were predicting that they would have a 10,000 vote lead after the absentee votes came in. Why? Because 10,000 more Republicans voted than Democrats (not surprising considering that a. this is a heavily Republican district, and b. absentee always trends Republican). HOWEVER, with the absentee votes counted - the Republicans ONLY have a 3,000 vote advantage. This means that independents (and possibly some Republicans) have swung heavily for us in initial voting.

2. That the numbers of those who went to the polls is trending more than 2 to 1 in favor of the Democrats right now.

3. That on election night during the special election - Arnold's initiatives were initially well ahead (because of the absentee). But his lead was overcome and eventually defeated soundly.

These facts all portent very well that Busby may actually win CA-50 tonight.

[Gabi Hayes]

49. Hotline claims absentee votes ARE important indicator

http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/

scroll down and see

do they know what they're talking about?

they're supposed to; say it won't even be close enough for a 'spin victory' if numbers don't improve

I saw the above posts that say these don't matter so much. hope the "pros" are as ignorant as they usually are

[Rose Siding]

52. Ok- The gop expected to lead absentees by 10K, but they are much lower

Bowers at MyDD picked up on this, too-

I am closing the first thread. Great night for Tester. Let's pull out another win in CA-50. Follow the results here for CA-50, and here for everything else.
The NRCC claimed they would be leading by 10,000 votes after the absentees, because 10,000 more R's voted absentee than D's. However, they are only leading by 3,000 votes. That indicates a massive surge for Busby among independents. I like our chances.

http://www.mydd.com/

[msongs]

closing what first thread? nt

[Gabi Hayes]

56. THANK you! He called Montana for Teser after seeing that

Billings went for him, instead of Morrison

he said Billings was his weakest point, and winning their was a crucial indicator

sure hope you're right

any idea on how long this is going to take?

wait a minute.....SCHOOL's OUT! I can stay up all frickin NIGHT!

time for a drink, and a peek at all the antiChavez buffoons

[Rose Siding]

57. I want to win it and I want to win it on SIX SIX SIX

PACIFIC TIME :bounce:

In reality, the rumor is that the returns could take until early tomorrow. If it's very very close, today's walk in absentee ballots (folks who didn't mail them) will be counted by hand.

[Gabi Hayes]

66. so is there a runoff if nobody gets 50 percent?

possibility of another election in November?

or did I read it wrong

that would suck, unless, of course, the carpetbagger gets more votes

then his carpetbaggery should come into play

and his being a lobbyist

will more people pay attention then?


will the tide turn more dramatically?

do I have any idea what I'm talking about?

[mountebank]

67. There will be another election in November no matter what happens.

The primary elections are to decide the November ballot. This is a special election to fill the seat until the next regularly scheduled election, which happens to be this November.

[Gabi Hayes]

77. I knew that! not

should've realized it, being a congressional election and all


thx

[TheWebHead]

53. run-off #s

U.S. REPRESENTATIVE 50TH DISTRICT - (RUN-OFF)

Counted: 57 of 500 precincts – 11.4 percent
BRIAN BILBRAY - REP 20448 50.60%
FRANCINE BUSBY - DEM 17329 42.88%
W. GRIFFITH - IND 1846 4.57%
PAUL KING - LIB 792 1.96%

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/politics/results/toplocalvotes.html

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

54. HERE IS THE EXPLANATION FOR VARIOUS RESULTS

There are 2 separate elections. One is for the actual term, and the other is for the Primary to see who will run in November. But it appears that they are 2 separate votes, with different totals.

[Innocent Smith]

55. There is a run-off AND a primary today for the 50th

The two facing off today in the run-off will also both end up winning in today's primary. No matter who wins this run-off to finish off the rest of Duke's term, they will have a rematch in November for a full term.

Early returns can be completely different than the final results. Especially since they mostly (and sometimes completely) are made up of absentee ballots that came in early.

Don't read too much into the returns until a bigger sample comes in. :)

[Nikki Stone 1]

58. These results haven't been updated in over an hour and a half

I'm looking at signonsandiego.com. Is there any other site that is more up to date?

[Hepburn]

69. I wonder why.....

....the results are so slow coming in? :argh:

[Grebrook]

60. Does anyone know what the indi Griffith is? Peace? Anti-immigrant?

He's drawing a significant amount of the vote in the early returns. What is he? Peace and Freedom Party guy or anti-illegal immigrant? I heard there was going to be one of those, but I haven't seen one.

[mountebank]

64. Supported by the Minutemen.... nt

[napi21]

62. Check out this result!

http://vote.ss.ca.gov/Returns/usrep/5000.htm

Democratic
Chris Raye Young 1,405 10.4
Francine Busby 12,036 89.6


Republican
Howard Kaloogian 1,001 4.7
Scott Turner 236 1.1
Victor E. Ramirez 364 1.7
Alan K. Uke 574 2.7
Scott C. Orren 282 1.3
Bill Hauf 2,209 10.6
Richard Earnest 339 1.6
Brian P. Bilbray 11,071 52.9
Eric Roach 3,347 16.0
Bill Morrow 1,542 7.4


Libertarian
Paul King 112 100.0


Peace & Freedom
Miriam E. Clark 13 100.0



I realixe it's only a few % of the precints reporting, but this is GOOD!

[mountebank]

65. Sigh. We wish. These are results from the simultaneous primary

to decide the Nov. Ballot. In the head to head Busby is down 51/43.

[napi21]

72. I don't understand. What do you mean? n/t

[mountebank]

75. Read upthread. Or: this election today is a special election to fill a

seat that was vacated by Duke Cunningham when he resigned for being a corrupt asshole. The winner holds office until Jan. 2007 with the next regularly scheduled election being this November. Thus, the only time to hold the primary for the upcoming election is now. Busby has virtually no competition while several Repub candidates are running to the right of Bilbray. Get it?

[napi21]

78. I do. But don't you think it will make a big difference if Busby

gets elected NOW, and does the job her constituents are happy with, she will have a BIG advantage in Nov?

[mountebank]

86. Of course I do. It was a simple statement of fact. nt

[mountebank]

87. self-delete

[DefenseLawyer]

70. Those are the Primary results, right?

Not the run-off results.

[Mr_Spock]

71. Please relax - those are primary results

The runoff election is completely different!

[Innocent Smith]

73. It is meaningless

Everybody knows that Busby and Bilbray are going to win in their repective primary elections.

[Justice Is Comin]

63. ..

[TheWebHead]

68. I think this is why there's a freeze in result counting

SAN DIEGO -- A few of San Diego County's 1,646 polling locations opened late Tuesday due to problems related to missing equipment or incorrect ballots, county Registrar of Voters Mikel Haas said.

"Nothing out of the ordinary," Haas said. "As far as the voters go, few if any were impacted or inconvenienced as far as we could tell."

The problems were typical of a complicated primary in which ballots vary from city to city, he said.

"It's not a general election where everyone is voting the same ballot," Haas said. "This one can be a little bit daunting."

more..
http://www.10news.com/news/9331114/detail.html

[Skip Intro]

74. holy shit - its so "daunting" to run an election, but the damned bills

come on time, don't they? No obstacle there.

:eyes:

[Nikki Stone 1]

76. Two hours and no change in the results.

The pugs only lead by 3000 votes right now.

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

79. Back In DC, rove Is At A Computer Taking Care Of Things. nt

[Grebrook]

80. What? The site lists two different results (I know, not primary)

On the front page of the OP's link it shows Bilbray with 54%. Then it shows Bilbray with only 50% in the second, more detailed page. I'm not confusing this with the primary and general election results either. It seems that there's THREE Different results listed altogether, two different versions of the general. Is it that they've updated the front page but not the election page? I don't get it.

Is it 54-45 or 50-42?

[mountebank]

81. Links? nt

[Grebrook]

83. Here, two links

Front page. Look under the election bar. 54-45%. http://www.signonsandiego.com/
Then second page. 50-42%. http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/politics/results/toplocalvotes.html

[mountebank]

85. That's weird. You gotta think the one on the more detailed page is more

recent, but the % reporting are about equal (they might have rounded off for the front page).....

[Spiffarino]

91. 13% in...Busby picking up ground in both reports

53-46 in one, 50-43 in the other.

This is getting interesting.

[Idioteque]

82. Is Griffith a right or left leaning indie? n/t

[mountebank]

84. Does anyone read upthread anymore? He is a right-leaning anti-

immigration candidate endorsed by the Minutemen.

edit: for subject

[mountebank]

88. 13.2% reporting 50/43 Bilbray... nt

[Grebrook]

89. UPDATE! 13% reporting now, Busby 43.24%, gaining on Bilbray 50.33%

[Spiffarino]

92. She's gaining ground...O God, let it be so

</fervent prayer>

[Nikki Stone 1]

93. This is like watching paint dry! But it's going in the right direction

Crossing fingers

[Grebrook]

94. UPDATE They FINALLY fixed the discrepancy between the polls

The front page and more detailed page now read the same. No more confusion. Guess someone didn't see the glitch.

[usregimechange]

95. Busby just went from 7% behind to 6%.

[Nikki Stone 1]

96. About 1/4 of the precincts

If things keep going this way, it will be a squeaker

[Grebrook]

97. Might be too late. A full 25% of the vote is in. Doubtful she'll finish

above 46%

[Jack_Dawson]

99. 44.05% Busby, 50.02% Bilbray (24% in)

She's gaining...he's stagnating (and all but gave his acceptance speech) :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer:

[Recursion]

98. Now 50-44

I'll put money on this being a long, drawn-out multiple-recount fiasco that ends up involving the courts. To put it another way, don't expect closure on this tonight, or tomorrow morning.

Now, back to nail-biting...

[Larry in KC]

100. 5% now. Is this still possible?

[usregimechange]

101. I still have 6% with 24% in. Doable.

[usregimechange]

104. There it is, you must be getting your #s from the SOS?

[longship]

102. Under 3,000 votes

BRIAN BILBRAY - REP 28568 49.67%

FRANCINE BUSBY - DEM 25605 44.52%

W. GRIFFITH - IND 2340 4.07%

PAUL KING - LIB 998 1.74%

Is Griffith a conservative?

[Grebrook]

103. Yes, anti-illegal immigration

[KingFlorez]

105. Come on Francine!

I think she can do it!

[Viva_La_Revolution]

106. kickin for the morning

I hope I don't wake up to calls for recounts! :scared:

[longship]

107. Another update

BRIAN BILBRAY - REP 30683 49.80%

FRANCINE BUSBY - DEM 27383 44.44%

W. GRIFFITH - IND 2489 4.04%

PAUL KING - LIB 1063 1.73%

35.6% reporting

Francine lost some ground there. Doesn't look too good.
Over 3,000 vote difference again.

[Jack_Dawson]

108. 49.67% Bilbray, 44.52% Busby

She be catchin' him...

[longship]

109. That's out of date 31.1% precincts.

Look at the post above yours.

She's losing ground

[Larry in KC]

110. UNDER 5% w/42% reporting!

[KingFlorez]

111. Update

BRIAN BILBRAY - REP 33468 49.59%
FRANCINE BUSBY - DEM 30190 44.74%
W. GRIFFITH - IND 2688 3.98%
PAUL KING - LIB 1139 1.69%

[Awsi Dooger]

112. Look at the margin, not the percentage

There's no booby prize for losing by less than 5%, or whatever.

As the raw vote total climbs, naturally the percentage of Bilbray's lead will shrink if it stays near this maddening 3000 vote margin. The percentages will narrow and narrow but if Busby is still 3000 votes behind with fewer outstanding votes to count, it is a negative, not a plus. We need to slice that margin.

[KingFlorez]

113. Another update

BRIAN BILBRAY - REP 35505 49.67%
FRANCINE BUSBY - DEM 31955 44.70%
W. GRIFFITH - IND 2827 3.95%
PAUL KING - LIB 1193 1.67%

[longship]

114. Update 46.4% precincts reporting

BRIAN BILBRAY - REP 35505 49.67%
FRANCINE BUSBY - DEM 31955 44.70%
W. GRIFFITH - IND 2827 3.95%
PAUL KING - LIB 1193 1.67%

Francine's losing ground: 3,550 votes difference

[Grebrook]

115. Update: 51% counted, Bilbray still leads by about 5, 49.66-44.84

[longship]

116. Update 51.1% precincts reporting

BRIAN BILBRAY - REP 37593 49.66%
FRANCINE BUSBY - DEM 33945 44.84%
W. GRIFFITH - IND 2931 3.87%
PAUL KING - LIB 1237 1.63%

Francine's losing more ground. 3648 votes different now.

[longship]

117. 56.6% Precincts reporting

BRIAN BILBRAY - REP 40123 49.82%
FRANCINE BUSBY - DEM 36005 44.71%
W. GRIFFITH - IND 3088 3.83%
PAUL KING - LIB 1313 1.63%

4,118 votes difference now.

Francine's going to lose this.

[deacon]

118. They are sending a lobbyist back to washington to clean things

up. This is rediculous. And the paper that tore cunningham apart, endorced him. A filthy dirty campaign was run by bilbray too-it was disgraceful what they did.

[Stevepol]

119. Quit blaming Bilbray, quite blaming the CA voters.

Any elections that are counted using the electronic voting machines without audits or any way to verify the results CANNOT BE TRUSTED. This is elementary and should be remembered by everybody.

Wasn't Busby ahead by about 5% points in the latest pre-election polls before the election?

Whatever the case, you can make a very good argument that the voting machines gave it to Bilbray. In fact, isn't that just about the strongest argument you can make?

Why come up with explanations for what may or may not have actually happened? Until we have free and fair vote counting in this country, it behooves us all to quit blaming voters.