Rove and Pugs show their hand for mid-terms: Bluff

[Jim Warren]

They know there is not a chance in hell of a marriage amendment passing the arduous and lengthy constitutional process; same for flag burning.

They will try to bluff a vote and thereby take over the national dialogue, thinking they will force dems to vote against it, let the lapdog media frenzy feed on it, thereby ascending the high ground and winning position of supporting traditional family values and the ol' red, white and blue. They will run on that, implying the dems are against "family" and Ol' Glory.

Gay Marriage Ban Short of Votes in Senate

By LAURIE KELLMAN
The Associated Press


WASHINGTON —

President Bush and congressional Republicans are aiming the political spotlight this week on efforts to ban gay marriage, with events at both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue _ all for a constitutional amendment with scant chance of passage but wide appeal among social conservatives.

Bush said Monday he is "proud to stand with" those who support a constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriage. The president's remarks Monday were timed to coincide with the Senate opening three days of debate on the issue. Neither chamber, though, is likely to pass the amendment by the two-thirds majority required to send it to the states _ three quarters of which would then have to approve it.

http://www.tribune-democrat.com/feeds/apcontent/apstories/apstorysection/D8I271G01.xml.txt/resources_apstoryview

[CGrantt57]

1. Bluff?

Hell, just raise the stakes.

I suggest every Democrat "abstain" from voting on this bullshit.

An abstention is a null vote.

You can't make hay out of that.

[Skidmore]

2. Let's make some calls, ladies and gents.

Abstain because it is bad legislation. Abstain because it promotes using the constitution to remove rights. Abstain because it is not worth a vote. Get those dialing fingers ready.

I highly doubt Dems have considered this as an option. Who do we call first?

[Norquist Nemesis]

4. That could get tricky, though

If the Cons have a majority of their 55 votes, it moves forward. Of course Ben Nelson is adding to their Yeas (as well as Baucus of MT and Nelson of FL, too from what I understand).

[Lexingtonian]

6. No

This is a constitutional amendment bill. It needs yea votes by 2/3 of the Senate and 2/3 of the House to pass.

As long as 34 Senators vote nay, it's done for. There are also ~170 safe votes against it in the House, so it never had a chance.

And that's why it's considered a pander rather than serious policy.

[Norquist Nemesis]

7. Question: Is that 2/3 of those that vote or total seats?

Can't recall ( :banghead: )

But, okay... of the 55 votes (noting that an additional 3 Yeas will be provided by Dems that have stated they would vote in favor), is it guaranteed that 34 Cons will vote 'No'? What's the typical number of hard-core Cons that stick to their guns (e.g. immigration votes)?

We all realize it's pandering. Even the RR sees it as pandering. But is it wise to abstain?

[Lexingtonian]

8. At least 34 Democrats will vote No

because they have safe seats, are certain the No vote is the right side of History, and they voted No in 2004 on the same question. Around 2020 at latest, the polling trend says, legalizing gay marriage will be the national majority view. (Coincidently, about the same time as abolition of capital punishment for common crimes.)

Most Senate Republicans are either so old or from such backwaters that the social pressure of shame by the young and intelligent isn't strong on them personally. But some of them are ashamed of a Yes vote for bigotry and against the 14th Amendment in the eyes of people now and in the future.

[louis-t]

3. Repugs really think they will gain approval with this.

What they don't realize is that the 29% that still think bush is god IS their crazy fundie base. They think they can get bush's approval back into the 40s. Delusional.

[warrens]

5. The media have pretty much made up their minds on these issues

Puffjobs, of no importance. They'll get a few minutes, then be ignored.

Even the wingnuts know this is meaningless tripe.