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Please explain the dollar dropping in value - on ABC's talking heads

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Nimrod2005 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-04-06 12:11 PM
Original message
Please explain the dollar dropping in value - on ABC's talking heads
kind of mentioned that new Treasury Sec. was brought in to manage this crisis???

What falling dollar? is Bush going to let it drop now? Are we forced to do this because of high debt?

I know about foreign companies being able to buy our goods for cheaper, but how about US dollar priced oil? how would that hurt us?

Have we had a low dollar value before? how low and when? what were the effects? What other economic effects will a cheap dollar have on the US?
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pooja Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-04-06 12:13 PM
Response to Original message
1. the dollar has been decreasing--why do you think Chavez
says he's going to sell oil in Euros... the money is worth more than the american dollar
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Nimrod2005 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-04-06 02:04 PM
Response to Reply #1
18. Yes, but we have always maintained a strong dollar policy, is it
now changing? Why and to what effect?
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bahrbearian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-04-06 12:15 PM
Response to Original message
2. I laughed when they said O'Neil was dumped because of
the dollar.. WTF they trashed him because of the Iraq budget.
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hfojvt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-04-06 12:18 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. O'Neill or Snow? n/t
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bahrbearian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-04-06 12:34 PM
Response to Reply #4
9. O'neil stated before the war that is would be over 200 billion.
he got canned
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bahrbearian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-04-06 12:35 PM
Response to Reply #4
10. WTF did Snow do?
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stray cat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-04-06 12:16 PM
Response to Original message
3. Other countries subsidize our debt so we are at their mercy
Just like when a company is deeply in the red and they get branded as junk bonds or stock. The US is hoping for a gentle slide in the dollar instead of a catastrophic plummet.
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Nimrod2005 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-04-06 02:05 PM
Response to Reply #3
19. Understood, but how would this effect us...Our economy?
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NewJeffCT Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-04-06 02:22 PM
Response to Reply #19
23. If $1 equals 100 Japanese yen
then, say a Toyota Corolla costs $20,000

If $1 equals 50 Japanese yen, the Corolla now either costs $40,000 to the American consumer or else Toyota take a big loss and/or so do their car dealers and everybody associated with Toyota & Toyota maintenance. That means people that make parts for Toyota cars, fix Toyota cars, sell Toyotas, etc all have their business affected quite drastically.

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caledesi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-04-06 04:04 PM
Response to Reply #23
24. Now I understand. Great explanation. nt
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WhiteTara Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-04-06 12:24 PM
Response to Original message
5. the dollar is worth about 84.40 cents
and has been dropping like a stone for some time. For the best information, read the daily stock market thread. UpInArms posts the daily dollar watch and the discourse is quite financially heady on the entire thread. Even if you don't invest,it is very informative about what is happening in our daily lives as far as our money goes.
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TomClash Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-04-06 12:25 PM
Response to Original message
6. Why price oil in dollars?
Edited on Sun Jun-04-06 12:25 PM by TomClash
Oil producers want it in a strengthening currency like Euros.

A weaker dollar means you are realtively poorer compared to people in other countries.
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ThomWV Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-04-06 01:44 PM
Response to Reply #6
14. Because There Are More Dollars Than Any Other Currancy
No kidding, there isn't enough of any other currancy in circulation to pay for all the oil that is used world wide.
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TomClash Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-04-06 08:47 PM
Response to Reply #14
29. Euro M3 is almost 7.5 trillion
The Fed stopped reporting M3 statistics in March so I cannot compare the two but I doubt the dollar's M3 is much larger.
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daa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-04-06 01:49 PM
Response to Reply #6
16. In May Iran opened their own Oil Bourse
and priced oil in Euros. This is why Bush wants to invade Iran. If the Euro strengthens against the dollar, oil becomes prohibitive in the US and puts us at a huge economic disadvantage.

Just another example of how Chimpy and Cheney have destroyed this country.
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DancingBear Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-04-06 06:46 PM
Response to Reply #16
27. Putin is thinking of doing the same thing in Russia
As it stands currently, the only two places to purchase oil are NY (NYMEX?) and London, both in U.S. currency.

An oil bourse (a bourse being the place to purchase oil) that trades in Eurodollars would be, due to the Bush economic "policy", disaterous for the U.S. economy.

This is, of course, the true reason for the invasion of Iran. The nuclear BS is the mother of al smokescreens.
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daa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-04-06 06:58 PM
Response to Reply #27
28. Bingo Bring it on says Chimpy eom
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northzax Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-04-06 12:26 PM
Response to Original message
7. the dropping dollar has two major potentially positive effects (short term
first off, as you mentioned, it makes US exports cheaper, in real terms, for foreigners. (of course, since we don't actually make anything any more, it's really irrelevant, any idea how far the dollar would have to drop to make much of a difference? think the textiles are coming back? no)

second off, since the US is fortunate enough to have all our (not it's, our) debt denominated in dollars, a dropping dollar actually makes our debt cheaper, in the short term, both for foreign purchasers, and for us to pay. In the future, however, loaners will demand higher interest rates, to compensate for the imbalance in the dollar.

Here's an analogy, which is greatly oversimplified. You are a pig farmer, I am a chicken (rancher? farmer?). I borrow money from you, and agree to pay you back with a chicken a month for 24 months. At this point, the value of 24 chickens covers my debt, plus interest. you are happy, because you are getting something worth the same every month, you can always sell the chickens, or eat them. After the first year of payments, avian flu means that no one wants chicken anymore. I keep sending you a chicken a month, as agreed, but that chicken is worth a lot less, both to you, and to me, than at the beginning of the deal. You have no real choice but to accept the payments, as it was the deal. It was only worth it to you to accept chickens in exchange when you thought the price of chickens would stay the same, or go up. If you'd known, or had a reasonable fear, that the price of chickens would crash, you would either demand more chickens in the first place, or make me pay in something that isn't going to be drastically deflated in value, right? Exchange dollars for chickens.
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elvisbear Donating Member (545 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-04-06 01:46 PM
Response to Reply #7
15. How about paying our debt with "Chickenhawks"?
Anything to get rid of them. :evilgrin:
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hfojvt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-04-06 12:30 PM
Response to Original message
8. Bush does not really have a choice
the dollar is traded on the international currency market and that market sets its value. It works like a stock market - if people buy dollars (with other foreign money - Euros, yen, etc.) the price goes up. If there are more sellers of dollars, then the price goes down.

In the Bretton-Woods agreement after WWII the dollar was made the international currency which was sort of a gold standard and it was tied to gold at a fixed price of $29 an ounce. At some point in the late 60s, early 70s too many people were trading their dollars for gold and so Nixon did away with the fixed price and gold quickly shot up to $300 an ounce or more.

Anyway, I would say international investors are losing faith in the dollar because they can see the US government being badly mismanaged with seemingly never-ending debt. However, a falling dollar does mean that our exports are more favorably priced. It also, however, means that imports, such as oil (and everything else that we buy from China and Asia), become more expensive.
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High Plains Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-04-06 01:06 PM
Response to Original message
11. The falling dollar is driving me out of Canada.
I've spent most of the last four years in Canada, but my employer is in Washington. When I first got here, the Canadian dollar was worth about .67 US dollars. Now, it's more like .91.

The falling US dollar has sapped my spending power by about 30%.

I'm retreating south at the end of this month. Too bad.
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davekriss Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-04-06 01:28 PM
Response to Original message
12. Has it happened before?
Of course. During the Reagan/Bush years, of course. (Gee, the Bush name seems to come popping up in every peoples catastrophe these last 30 years.)

Ronald Reagan, formerly my vote for worst president ever, decided he was going to have an arms buildup while also giving record tax breaks to the top 1% of our population, and while Paul Volcker, Greenspan/Bernanke's predecessor at the Fed, was trying to retard consumption (to tame inflation) through monetary policy (via rising interest rates). The Reagan deficits were consuming all U.S. private savings at the time, requiring interest rates to rise to records that stand to this day (Carter holds the record for nominal rates, inflation plus real interest -- Reagan holds the record for real interest rates, which are nominal rates minus inflation -- real interest rates are far more destructive than nominal, as history has shown).

Real interest had to rise high compared to the rest of the world (after discounting for risk), thereby priming the pump with foriegn cash flows to fund the then record Reagan deficits. But you could only buy U.S. Treasury instruments with U.S. dollars, so the world sold their Yen, Marcs, Francs, et al., for USD, creating record strength for the dollar. I recall Yen trading at 268 to the dollar at one point (it's about 112 right now).

An unfortunate result, then, was that U.S. goods and services grew too pricey compared to our competition in world markets, and U.S. manufacturing industry lost significant market share, never recovered (we even lost whole industries, like VCR manufacture, television manufacture, etc.). To counter, U.S. manufacturing started moving plants overseas, to cheap labor countries, and the rusting of the vast mid-west manufacturing base began. The source of middle class prosperity for so many was destroyed so that the rich could have their Reagan-Bush tax cuts, and Reagan could shift additional cash flow to the military-industrial complex, his base.

Well, this would not do; the rascal multitudes (you and I) were starting to agitate. Were we better off in 1985 than 4 years before? Beside, some of the Reagan-Bush victims were country club residing factory owners who paid their bribes (campaign contributions) and expected better. So Reagan-Bush acted, they sent fixer-extraordinaire onto the problem, James Baker.

Baker convened the world's central bankers at the Plaza hotel in NYC at then a top-secret series of meetings. The result was the Plaza Accord, where the G8 nations agreed to support trading ranges for the world's currencies through central bank manipulation (so much for "free markets"). However, they weren't very good at it initially; the dollar dropped like a rock. By 1987 or so the Yen was trading at 89 to the dollar, far below the 120-140 trading range agreed to.

The result? A massive selloff of U.S. assets. From real estate to company after company, now the world traded their Yen and Marcs and Francs for U.S. real assets. It was the Great American Firesale! We bought a degree of prosperity to (1) counter the earlier damaging policies of the Republithug Reagan-Bush White House, and (2) to position Republithugs for re-election. But at what cost?

In 1981, the U.S. owned 3.7x more of the rest of the world than the world owned of us; by 1992, the rest of the world owned 0.4x more of us than we of them (source: Boiling Point, Kevin Phillips). A sea change in our economic standing in the world of tsunami proportions. Couple that with the fact that we went from the world's creditor to the biggest debtor on the globe during the same time, it's easy to see why Bush Jr. feels forced to resort to historical-conventional military imperialism to try to hold onto our fragile hegemony. However, as witness of every previous empire shows, we can't hold on to hegemony with bombs and bullets alone; via the route chosen by Bush, American supremacy is fast becoming an anachronism. It won't last. We've rusted out our heart and over-extended our force.

May history judge Bush and his Regime for what they are: Nation destroyers -- destroying both our nation as well as a myriad of smaller nations in geo-political strategic locations. I think the damage is already done and over the next half-century we will drift into U.K.-like second-tier standing, or worse: We could evolve into an Argentina/Chile/El Salvador/Guatamala/Honduras two tiered state with a small class of owners living a life of opulence, served by a sliver of well-rewarded managers and magistrates, and then everyone else, the "useless eaters" and "cannon fodder" who toil in the fields of the Great Plantation the feudal U.S. economy will become. Note that it does seem that the Bush Regime is acting as if this is our future, with signing statements and "unitary executive" priviledge, and appointments of people (e.g., Negroponte) quite adept at terrorizing indigent populations into passive obedience.

We live in interesting times. Unfortunately. :(
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Nimrod2005 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-04-06 02:15 PM
Response to Reply #12
20. Thank you for a great analysis ---- That's where I was going with my
question, you pretty much answered it.
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carolinalady Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-04-06 04:12 PM
Response to Reply #12
25. Excellent and informative post. Thank you. n/t
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Zynx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-04-06 01:41 PM
Response to Original message
13. The US runs enormous trade and current accounts deficits. Ergo, $ drops.
It's really pretty simple.
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sweetheart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-04-06 02:00 PM
Response to Original message
17. I knew that about Paulson
Its pretty easy to reverse engineer. Why would the pukes bring in a more reality-based person
unless they were desperate. So his job is to play poker, much like what makes goldman so
famous on the street, hard and smart dealin'. He's there to play the phantom hand.
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Nimrod2005 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-04-06 02:17 PM
Response to Reply #17
21. So right on ---- Save this post, we will know in about 2/3 years...
Edited on Sun Jun-04-06 02:17 PM by Nimrod2005
I have strong suspicion you are right...
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ContraBass Black Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-04-06 02:21 PM
Response to Original message
22. Bush has been pursuing a weak dollar policy from the beginning
To entice foreign investors, while the Chinese and Japanese prop the dollar up. Why are they fussing about it now?
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Nimrod2005 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-04-06 06:06 PM
Response to Reply #22
26. Exactly, but can't tell you why?
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