Cook Political Report - Situation Worsens for GOP

[BeatleBoot]

Getting Pulled Under

http://www.cookpolitical.com/column/2006/052706.php

<snip>

A year ago, just 18 Republican-held House seats were in play: Two were rated by The Cook Political Report as "toss-ups" and 16 as "lean Republican." To make the 15-seat net gain necessary for taking control of the House, Democrats needed to hold all of their own seats and win 83 percent of the competitive Republican ones. By the first of this year, the number of vulnerable GOP seats was still 18 -- but half were in the more dangerous "toss-up" category.

Now the situation has worsened considerably for the GOP: 36 of its seats are in play, and 11 of them are toss-ups. Democrats need to win just 42 percent of the Republican seats in play to reach the magic number of 218. An additional 18 Republican seats are rated "likely Republican," meaning they are potentially competitive. The consensus among veteran Republican campaign consultants, particularly pollsters, is that if the election were held today, their party would lose the House.

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[CatWoman]

1. yet, they still think Gay Marriage will help them

:silly:

[chaumont58]

5. Its just a little red meat for the fundies

I think the Bushies have polling data that too many of the fundies plan to sit this coming election out. They have to do something to even appear to be on the fundies side. Immigration reform is going to work. Gay bashing is about all that's left, even if it is purely a non-starter. To get the amendment out of the Senate, the repukes would have to get 12 Dems to vote their way. And that is Frist got all Repukes. The Northeastern Moderates might not go his way.
Bush's Rose Garden ceremony is pure bullshit. He's going to step in shit and his whole body is going to stink.
He got bad advice and his crew is starting to look desperate.

[CatWoman]

6. Chaumont

check it out:

But, in a new twist this year, some conservative activists expressed similar cynicism. They said Mr. Bush and the Republicans in Congress had a long way to go to convince social conservatives that they viewed the issue as anything but a politically convenient tool that they picked up only when they needed to motivate their core voters.

After the 2004 campaign, they say, Mr. Bush put his energies into domestic issues like Social Security and immigration rather than into the marriage amendment and other topics of interest to grass-roots conservatives.

"It was so central in the 2004 election," Tony Perkins, president of the Family Research Council, a conservative research group, said of same-sex marriage. "And the day after, the president began a crusade to reform Social Security and it went nowhere. Why not put energy into something that's vital for our society and our country?"

"Nobody thinks it's going anywhere," said Joe Solmonese, president of the Human Rights Campaign, a gay rights group, saying he believed the move was meant to divert attention from high gasoline prices and Iraq.

Tony Fabrizio, a Republican pollster, agreed that other issues sapping conservative enthusiasm — such as moves to open the way to citizenship for illegal immigrants — would overshadow any progress on gay marriage. But he said those most loudly complaining about the president's conservative agenda would never be appeased.

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/06/03/us/03bush.html?ex=1306987200&en=54867859305eb164&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss

[Webster Green]

2. Heh!...And that story is a week old....

They are in even worse shape this week.:rofl:

[UrbScotty]

3. Uh-oh Diebold... You got your work cut out for you now! (nt)

[neoblues]

7. Somehow I figure they're prepared...

Or getting prepared. Despite a few setbacks here and there, they seem to be on-track in most places, and even many Democrats discount their relevance--making their job even easier. I wouldn't be surprised to see Republicans win even more seats--from races that they don't even appear competitive in. Then again, maybe they'll play it cautiously owing to the sensitized and negative public sentiment--ow wouldn't be a good time to reach for more than just maintaining their majority; though given how radical they've become, one can't expect them to be rational. Then again, if they were to lose control over even just the House of Representatives, it might well spell DOOM for many of their plans and perhaps even their President--so they may be ready to fight with every game, trick or illegal capabilities they have!

Even if you discount their Electronic advantage, they're still capable of mounting a formidable voter suppression/disenfranchisement effort.

[Jackpine Radical]

4. Well, this kind story should help rally the remaining wingnuts.

Both of them.