top TEN senate races

[Laura PourMeADrink]

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/

snip


10. New Jersey: Appointed Sen. Bob Menendez (D) has outperformed state Sen. Tom Kean Jr. (R) so far in this contest, showing off the political chops that propelled him into the halls of Congress and the House Democratic leadership. It's that image -- Menendez as the relentless politico -- that Republicans believe will ultimately be his undoing. Kean is running as a reformer in a state that has been wracked by scandals in recent years, offering the Republicans the chance to portray Menendez as guilty by association. For now, we are keeping the contest low on the Line -- pending further developments. (Previous ranking: 10)

9. Maryland -- OPEN:ike Tennessee (#7 below), much of where this race ends up on the Line depends on who wins the Sept. 12 Democratic primary. Rep. Ben Cardin is the clear favorite of the party establishment and has banked more than $2.6 million to spend on an advertising blitz in the primary's final weeks. Polling shows former Rep. Kweisi Mfume running nearly even with Cardin, but the Mfume's anemic fundraising ($185,000 on hand at the end of March) brings into question whether he can compete with Cardin on the airwaves. Republicans believe that if Mfume is the nominee, Lt. Gov. Michael Steele (R) has a real chance at victory. The problem for Steele is that he is running in one of the bluest states in the country in a year where the national environment favors Democrats. That's a steep hill to climb. (Previous ranking: 8)

8. Nebraska: Former Ameritrade executive Pete Ricketts's (R) primary win earlier this week moves this race up a slot on the Line. Ricketts's 47 percent was not an overwhelming margin, but the quality of the campaign he ran in the primary bodes well for Republicans in the fall. Democratic Sen. Ben Nelson is one of the savviest politicians in his party, but the electoral math for him is daunting due to the overwhelmingly Republican nature of the state. President Bush carried Nebraska by 33 points in 2004; the president's popularity free-fall nationally probably won't matter munch in a state that remains one of the reddest in the country. Making his first run for elected office, Ricketts can position himself in any way he sees fit; he appears to be casting himself as a political outsider rather than a reliable Republican vote -- a savvy move in the current climate. Ricketts's personal wealth (he donated $5 million to his primary bid) ensures he will be at parity with Nelson on the airwaves. The elements are in place for Republicans to make a serious challenge here in November, but given Nelson's political know-how and the pro-Democratic national environment, the incumbent retains the advantage. (Previous ranking: 9)

7. Tennessee -- OPEN: Democratic Rep. Harold Ford Jr. has run an intriguing campaign so far, going on television earlier than almost any other candidate in the country to talk about issues of the day like port security and high gas prices. That willingness to take risks -- combined with a decidedly friendly national environment -- could make Ford the rare Democrat with a real chance to win a federal race in the South. Former Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker (R) has salted away more than $4 million for an extended television campaign aimed at defining himself before his primary opponents -- former Reps. Ed Bryant and Van Hilleary -- do if for him. But Corker may need every cent to defend himself against likely attacks on his Republican credentials. A Bryant or Hilleary primary win increases Ford's chances at victory. (Previous ranking: 7)

CLICK ON LINK TO SEE # 1-6

[proud2BlibKansan]

1. Jim Talent is going to get smoked!

5. Missouri: The stem-cell issue has tied Sen. Jim Talent (R) in knots. After pulling his support for a Senate bill that would have banned all human cloning (including stem cell research) earlier this year, Talent came out this month against a Missouri ballot initiative that would mandate the protection of such research in the state's constitution. Conservative groups praised Talent for his more recent position after pummeling him for changing his mind on the Senate legislation. Polling shows that a clear majority of Missouri voters favor stem cell research, and state Auditor Claire McCaskill (D) has repeatedly bashed Talent for his position. It could be the wedge issue that McCaskill needs to peel off loosely affiliated Republicans in November. (Previous ranking: 6)

[Tiggeroshii]

2. Hopefully Ford can pick up...

IF he does things right, I'm sure he can. We still have a few months, if his polls can get even or ahead of any of his opponents, then that will be very good.

[katinmn]

3. There's the media fucking with our elections again!!

I knew I shouldn't go to the article because I knew I would find WaPo sticking its nose in and censoring candidates. They neglected to mention the progressive Dems running in Minnesota and Rhode Island because they are both ANTI-WAR. I thought it was the media's job to report the news, not shape elections and throw their support to certain candidates. This sucks and I really despise the disservice they are doing to the American people. When they censor candidates, they censor our right to have debate about issues and hear opposing points of view. Media whores are destroying our right to representation.
:grr: :argh:

Where's Ford Bell?
6. Minnesota -- OPEN Rep. Mark Kennedy continues to represent Republicans' best chance at a pick-up this cycle, but his road is not an easy one. Hennepin County Attorney Amy Klobuchar (D) cleared the primary field with remarkable ease over the past six months and has performed admirably on the fundraising front -- raising more than $3.7 million by the end of March. Klobuchar campaign pollster Anna Greenberg released a survey this week that showed her candidate with a 50 percent to 42 percent lead over Kennedy. More interesting than the head-to-head number, however, was that 66 percent of the sample said the state was on the wrong track and 58 percent voiced disapproval of the job President Bush is doing. Since the numbers were provided by Klobuchar's pollster, we take them with a grain of salt. But if Greenberg's numbers are anywhere close to where public sentiment actually lies, it will be extremely difficult for Kennedy to win.

Where's Carl Sheeler?
2. Rhode Island: For the first time since The Fix started compiling the Senate Line, we seriously contemplated moving this race down a slot or two. Secretary of State Matt Brown's (D) departure from the primary (a bow to the inevitable) should help former state Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse (D) consolidate support and save resources for the general election. And there is a very real possibility that Sen. Lincoln Chafee will lose the Republican primary in September to Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey. But if Chafee wins the primary, his moderate Republican credentials will make it difficult for Democrats to paint him as a tool of President Bush. The race keeps its high spot on the Line pending the results of the Republican primary, but the lack of a competitive primary on the Democratic side makes it easier for Chafee to win his own primary race. Whitehouse vs. Laffey, the Democrat probably wins. But in a Whitehouse-Chafee match-up, the seat is much more likely to remain in GOP hands.

[CarlSheeler4U]

4. Never underestimate a Marine to get the job done.

Whitehouse is being covered but his flanks and rear are being eroded under the radar. MANY of Brown's supporters went to our campaign because most selected Brown based on "anybody but Sheldon criteria". We saw this by the number of new donors, emails, hits to our website and increased local blog activity.

It helped we went after them in a hurry within 48 hours and the state newspaper has done good coverage of campaign as the darling underdog. Regardless their motivation to sell papers or legitimate support. We're expecting our poll numbers to have climbed significantly.

http://rifuture.org/blog/?p=1894

This billboard was as a result of the collective input of DU'ers. Thank you.

It compliments our "BE PATRIOTIC IMPEACH BUSH" billboard you raved about and helped support with blogs kicked to Daily Kos and around the net.

Kick it one more time!

Carl
Sheeler for US Senate (D-RI)
www.carlsheeler.com

[katinmn]

5. Glad to hear the Brown people are coming around

Interesting comments on rifuture. Comments are divided between people who want change and those who are fighting to maintain the status quo.

Carl, I like your reasoned approach in answering them. Critics are reduced to personal attacks because you are winning on the issues. The main thing Whitehouse has going for him is money. I hope we can overcome that infatuation with money in all the races in all states. Your billbard approach brings the message directly to the people.

(And I need to learn to make a point on DU without using the f word. :-) I was so frustrated yesterday. Time to take a step back.)

[CarlSheeler4U]

6. Hey Kat. Thanks. Please push to other sites.

It was because of the progressive actions that has allowed us to reach where we're at. The money addiction, the wealthy candidates addiction is exactly why we progressives have had to take the more assertive approach we do.

It's what will get things done. If it has to be status quo or bold vision, say good bye to biz as usual!

Carl

http://rifuture.org/blog/?p=1894

This billboard was as a result of the collective input of DU'ers. Thank you.

It compliments our "BE PATRIOTIC IMPEACH BUSH" billboard you raved about and helped support with blogs kicked to Daily Kos and around the net.

Kick it one more time!

Carl
Sheeler for US Senate (D-RI)
www.carlsheeler.com