Obama electability argument. RIP

[jackson_dem]

Here is the GDP thread: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5102726

Obama no longer outperforms Clinton against McCain. He once did 9 points better, lost 5 pts in March

One of the top arguments of Obama's campaign has always been that he was more electable than Clinton. For a year poll averages consistently showed the Illinois upstart outperforming the old warrior against rethugs. There was polls here and there that showed Clinton doing better but 90% of the time she was behind in the poll average, the only reliable measure given how much a given poll can vary due to methodology. No more. For the first time Clinton is even with Obama in the rcp poll averages. These polls were taken before pastorgate and the subsquent revelation that Obama knew about Wright's views but lied to the nation anyway last night. The fallout from pastorgate has not been completed. This is about much more than one scandal, though. This confirms what some of us had long been saying. As Obama got more scrutiny from the media and even suffered the occasional attack his negatives would increase. The belief that a pristine candidate who received more positive press than any other major candidate in recent memory would be as strong in such match ups after receiving some fire was always a very naive or overly optimistic one based on a belief in Obama having superhuman qualities as a politician that would allow him to defy political gravity. Keep in mind he still has yet to be attacked by the rethug machine and the msm has barely touched him thus far. Even pastorgate was ignored by the nightly news and the major papers. The latter finally covered it after Obama gave them a pro-Obama script with which they could spin it in the form of his public, sorry, a spade must be called a spade, lying on the matter. I didn't see the nightly news tonight but I suspect it must have been covered there as well.

I am sure an Obama supporter will look at this and say "well, he still matches Clinton". That is dangerous. He will only get weaker. He should be thrashing a candidate who the msm, rethugs have fired their artillery at for 16 years. Even a large chunk of her own party has spent the better part of this decade pounding away at her. In contrast Obama has gotten probably less the 16 days of negative msm coverage, has not been touched by the rethug machine yet, and is a hero to the same flank of the party that despises Clinton for believing what Obama believes. Clinton is at her floor; Obama peaked a while ago. If you are voting for Obama because you like him the best keep supporting him. However, if you are supporting him due to electability you need to accept the writing on the wall and switch to Clinton.

Here are the numbers:

The current rcp average: Clinton exactly tied with McCain, Obama leads McCain by 0.3 (not statistically worth a penny)

Let's travel back in time and watch the trajectory.

3/9/07: Obama +1.4, Clinton -1.6
4/9/07: Obama +6.4, Clinton -3.0
5/10/07: Obama +7.2, Clinton +2.0
6/10/07: Obama +7.8, Clinton -1.5
7/11/07: Obama +6.0, Clinton +4.8
8/11/07: Obama +5.7, Clinton +2.8
9/11/07: Obama +6.6, Clinton +3.7
10/12/07: Obama +3.7, Clinton +4.6
11/12/07: Obama +3.8, Clinton +3.8
12/13/07: Obama +1.0, Clinton +2.8
1/13/08: Obama =0.0, Clinton -5.0
2/13/08: Obama +4.0, Clinton -1.5
3/15/08: Obama +0.3, Clinton =0.0

Here are the differentials between their performance by month.

3/07: Obama +3
4/07: Obama +9.4
5/07: Obama +5.2
6/07: Obama +9.3
7/07: Obama +1.2
8/07: Obama +2.9
9/07: Obama +2.9
10/07: Clinton +0.9
11/07: Tied
12/07: Clinton +1.8
1/08: Obama +5.0
2/08: Obama +5.5
3/08: Obama +0.3

The trajectory is clear. Obama started out doing over 9 points better than Clinton against McCain but now they are even. Obama suffered a decline of over 5 points in the last month--the first month he has gotten a smattering of msm scrutiny.