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By Danny Morrison (for the Irish Examiner)
The statement issued yesterday afternoon by the IRA, the second
in twenty-four hours, represents an ominous development and a
major deterioration in the peace process.
Unlike Wednesday night's lengthy exposition of the IRA's
analysis on what went wrong last December when a deal foundered,
Thursday's statement was terse and suggested that the talking
had finished. Republican frustration and anger has been building
for some considerable time. Certainly, where I live, in the
heart of Gerry Adams' constituency in West Belfast, there is a
feeling that each and every time republicans have made
concessions the goalposts are shifted by unionists, often with
the support or tolerance of the two governments.
The majority of Northern nationalists, who voted for Sinn Fein,
are of the view that the governments are hypocritical and
operate double standards. Elements of the two governments are
hostile to Sinn Fein for different reasons. Some, on the British
side, are still fighting the war by other means, are out to
destroy the Adams' leadership and would consider a split in the
IRA and a return to conflict as a major strategic success which
would allow them to finish off the organisation.
Political parties in the Republic, particularly Fianna Fail,
never anticipated the success of Sinn Fein and its potential.
Their party political concern is now a real factor in perversely
affecting Dublin government thinking and using the current
crisis to lambaste a domestic rival instead of coolly assessing
what is a complex situation.
Republicans cite the list of compromises they made to help make
peace: Sinn Fein changing its constitution to recognise a
Northern Assembly; supporting the amendments of Articles 2 & 3
as a concession to unionist sensibilities; compromising and
accepting the Patten proposals on new policing; the IRA
suffering a split over the issue of engaging with the
International Decommissioning body (IICD), which led to the
formation of the Real IRA; the IRA putting three large tranches
of weapons beyond use; and offering total decommissioning of
weapons by Christmas, independently witnessed by Protestant and
Catholic clerics.
But Patten was gutted during its legislative process. The old
Special Branch migrated into the PSNI. There has been no Bill of
Rights. Outstanding changes on criminal justice and equality
have been stalled. The strictest electoral laws in Europe were
introduced on the back of false allegations of mass personation
by Sinn Fein - only for Sinn Fein's vote to increase.
Republicans recall David Trimble being found guilty in court of
illegally excluding two Sinn Fein ministers from North-South
council meetings - yet he suffered no sanctions. Unionists
refuse to accept the Decommissioning Commission's word on arms -
even though it was set up for them. David Trimble reneged on the
deal for the re-establishment of the executive in October 2003.
When at Christmas the anti-Agreement Ian Paisley blocked the
peace process by demanding the total humiliation of the IRA, its
wearing of sackcloth and ashes, the two governments caved in.
They didn't threaten the DUP. They didn't look for an
alternative 'government of the willing' of pro-Agreement
parties, in the way they would now like to establish a
gerrymandered coalition if they could recruit the SDLP.
The governments went along with the unionist demand for
transparent evidence of IRA decommissioning. But when
republicans politely asked for transparent evidence of IRA
involvement in the Northern Bank raid new rules of
confidentiality kicked in.
And now republicans are told by the two governments that the
only obstacle in the way of peace is the IRA. That is such a
blatant lie. But it is a pretext for the British rolling back
the Belfast Agreement and nationalists are angry that they are
being thwarted once again from achieving their rights.
The IRA - which re-emerged in 1969 because nationalists were
left defenceless - has not gone away and won't go away until the
security of the nationalist community in the North has been
established and guaranteed, and republicans are free to use
established institutions to peacefully campaign for social and
economic harmonisation as a process towards unity.
The two governments have always calculated that the IRA cannot
return to armed struggle without Sinn Fein paying a heavy price
electorally. Undoubtedly, because there is a degree of
association, Sinn Fein's vote would suffer. However, the reason
why a return to armed struggle would be foolhardy, in my
opinion, is because it would be a return to a military
stalemate.
However, the IRA defies conventional analysis. If it decided
there was a case to be made for a return to armed struggle it
would go down that road without regard to the post 9/11
perception of the world.
It has always been easier for the governments to blame the IRA
than to face up to what Britain created in Ireland at the time
of partition - a sectarian state which refused to treat a
section of its citizens as equals.
A major political vacuum looms. Hope is evaporating. People feel
desperate. All depends on whether the governments listen to what
is being said.
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