Who gains from this breakdown?

[two gun sid]

From The Guardian:

The British and Irish governments have reason to undermine Sinn Féin

Niall Stanage
Friday February 4, 2005
The Guardian

The Irish peace process, which just two months ago seemed inches away from a final settlement, is in turmoil. The current downward spiral began in late December, when a raid on a Belfast bank netted its perpetrators £26m. Tony Blair and his Irish counterpart Bertie Ahern wasted no time in declaring that the IRA was responsible for the heist. They have stuck with that position since, though they have not produced a shred of evidence to back up their claims. The two premiers this week characterised the IRA as "the sole obstacle" in the way of progress.

The IRA responded in kind on Wednesday, declaring that further decommissioning was now "off the table". While reaffirming its desire to see the peace process succeed, it also warned, ominously, that current circumstances had "tried our patience to the limit". That statement, in turn, provoked an outcry from Irish republicanism's opponents. Ian Paisley, the leader of the hardline Democratic Unionist party, said that the IRA had "never had any intention of giving up their criminal empire".

The peace process has passed through moments of peril before, of course. But now, all forward momentum seems lost. Sinn Féin's Martin McGuinness spoke yesterday of a "deepening crisis".

Two things have remained true of Northern Ireland since the worst years of the Troubles. First, things are rarely as they appear. Second, it is always vital to ask whose interests are served when unsupported allegations are flung about.


http://www.guardian.co.uk/Northern_Ireland/Story/0,2763,1405774,00.html

[Maeve]

1. Who gains? No one, really

They just don't lose anymore (and yeah, I'm agreeing with the writer on the basics).
As long as the status remains quo, Paisley wins. He'll never get the Republicans back under his heel and he knows that, but he looks on Gerry Adams much as the white South African govt looked at Nelson Mandela.