Why Everything the Democrats Are Being Told Is Wrong - majority IS left!

[papau]

And Why Everything the Democrats Are Being Told Is Wrong

by Mitchell Rofsky
CommonDreams.org


Unfortunately, there was a second message that came out of the election, and this one hasn’t been re-examined. Panel discussions on “Meet the Press” and “This Week”, countless op-ed columns, and every cable news show have all pounded out the same message to the Democrats: “Change your philosophy or get used to it, you out-of-the-mainstream losers.”

However, a closer reading of Presidential Election Exit Polls back to at least 1996 reveals that nearly everything you’ve been told about them--and almost all the advice the Democrats are now being given--is wrong.


Liberalism is becoming less popular. WRONG!
1. Since 1996, the percentage of voters identifying themselves as Liberal has increased by 1% (to 21%) while Conservatives have also increased by 1% (to 34%).

2. The percentage of the electorate that considers the key conservative economic issue, “Taxes”, the most important issue dropped from 15% in 1996 to 5% in 2004. Even excluding Iraq and Terrorism, the salience of Taxes would have fallen to 7.6% of 2004 voters.

3. Liberalism is dependent on the popularity of the federal government. Since 1992, the percentage of people who believe the federal government should do more has increased from 39% to 46% while the number who believe it should do less has declined from 55% to 49%.

4. Based on the Issue responses, if 9/11 had never happened, Kerry would have won the election, 52/47%. This has to be taken with a grain of salt as Democrats often win on “issues” but lose elections. Still, it calls into question the post-election advice regarding the unpopularity of the Democratic message.
Democrats can’t win because they are on the “wrong” side of the social issues, popularly known as “God, Gays, and Guns “. WRONG!
These social issues may have been determinative in a number of states (Ohio, Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, Florida) and, given our state-based electoral system, cannot be ignored, but as national trends they are either static or losing ground.

5. Since 1996, the percentage of the vote that is Catholic and Protestant has declined by 2%, while the percentages of voters with Other Religions and No Religion increased by 4%. (Protestants are becoming more evangelical, but Protestants were already the base of the Republican Party.)

6. Since 2000, the percentage of voters who attend church monthly or more stayed the same, while the number who seldom or never attend went up 1%.

7. Pro-choice beats anti-abortion 55%/42%. (Although, since 1992, the percentage who believe that abortion should always be legal has dropped from 35% to 21%, probably due to the debate on partial-birth abortion.)

8. The support for gay marriage or civil unions actually trumps the opposition by “landslide” margins: 60%/37%.

9. Bush won over half the voters (52%) who said they favored civil unions.

10. The percentage of households who own guns has dropped from 48% to 41% since 2000. (Kerry improved on Gore’s percentage among gun owners, indicating that his effort on this issue paid off.)

11. The Democrat’s military problem may be deeper than their “God, Gays, and Guns” problem. Kerry actually won the vote of the 82% of the people who have never served. But he lost the vote of the remaining 18% by 57%/41% or 3.5 million votes, virtually the final margin. (How did the military vote in 2000? The question wasn’t asked.)
Bush won the election because he increased his small town and rural percentages while younger voters did not turn out for Kerry! WRONG!
12. According to these polls, Bush didn’t improve his percentages in small towns and rural areas from 2000. (Of course, turnout increased.) Meanwhile the rural vote, while Republican, is declining.

13. Younger voters did turn out, but everybody turned out. It’s hard for liberals to fault younger voters; they were the only age group that Kerry won. Meanwhile, Bush improved his vote among all other age groups, but especially the 24% of voters over 60, where he improved by 7% or nearly 2 million votes.
Bush’s increase among Hispanics was critical to his victory. WRONG!
14. The trend in the Hispanic vote is important for the future. But Hispanics were not the key to this victory. While 6% of Hispanics moved toward the President (other Exit Polls say it’s a bit less), Hispanics only represent 8% of the electorate (up from 3.2% in 1992). This move by Hispanics only represents a little over half a million voters, enough to help Bush erase his deficit to Gore, but not much else.
Bush’s edge over Kerry rose broadly in the battleground states as turnout increased. WRONG!
15. Bush’s percentages increased narrowly in the battleground states: Bush increased by 23%, Kerry by 21%. In the safe Bush states, Bush was up 21%, Kerry 12%. The key to Bush’s margin was actually the safe Kerry states where Bush was up 16%, Kerry only 5%. Did this result from the fact that 9/11 happened to directly impact residents of blue states (NY, NJ, PA, DC)? Was it the lack of effort of a Kerry campaign focused on the battleground states? The natural edge of incumbency? The exit polls can’t help us.
http://www.commondreams.org/views05/0201-20.htm

[PROGRESSIVE1]

1. kick, kick, kick, kick, kick

[SeattleRob]

2. kick

This is an excellent article. Too many of us allow the Republicans to get away with framing the debate and defining our party and ideas.

:kick:

[Celeborn Skywalker]

3. Kick!

This a great article that tells that the majority are with us, not against us.

[MsUSA]

4. kick eom

[goodhue]

5. yes indeed

the pendulum is swinging our way

[Celeborn Skywalker]

6. Kick! n/t

[Overseas]

7. I'll kick it but pity is the Neo-Repubs don't care about reality. eom.

[DaedelusNemo]

8. Foundation of new media approach: America is Liberal

And conversely, the neocons are not. (Nor are they conservative.)

PIPA 's surveys show that people overwhelmingly believe in liberal positions - but don't know it; and furthermore, they tend to assume, erroneously, that the Republican party supports those policies as well. Indeed, even the administration supports these policies in their more public rhetoric, even as they work unceasingly to undermine them. Democrats need to do more pointing out that America is liberal, and more pointing out that the administration is working against their will.

Some more evidence of Liberal America:

From the Greenberg exit poll:

The percentage of voters saying the issue is at or near the top of their priority list for congressional action:

81% Guarantee Social Security benefits will not be cut

76% Guarantee affordable health insurance for every American

63% Invest in smaller classes and teacher pay

58% Repeal tax breaks for companies that move jobs overseas

54% Raise the minimum wage

59% Establish a national health care plan similar to Medicare that provides coverage for every American

73% Give Medicare the power to negotiate lower drug prices and allow the re-importation of cheaper prescription drugs from Canada

******************************

Percentage of voters agreeing with each statement, given a choice between the two:

40% Bottom line, America's security depends on its own military strength.
vs.
51% America's security depends on building strong ties with other nations.

41% Homosexuality is a way of life that should be discouraged by society.
vs.
48% Homosexuality is a way of life that should be accepted by society.

40% We should allow individuals to invest a portion of their Social Security funds in private retirement accounts.
vs.
57% We should preserve the Social Security system and guarantee current benefit levels.

72% We must fundamentally reform the health care system because too many Americans cannot keep up with the rising cost of health care.
vs.
24% We have the best medical care in the world and we can restrain prices by adding more competition.

58% We should enforce labor and environmental protections in our trade accords and challenge China's unfair policies because American jobs are being lost.
vs.
33% We should sustain our current trade policies and provide training for displaced workers because America benefits if our companies can
invest and expand to markets abroad.

54% When it comes to economic policy, our first priority should be investing in education, health care, and energy independence.
vs.
40% When it comes to economic policy, our first priority should be reducing the deficit and government spending.

55% The best way to reduce the budget deficit is to invest in education, health care, and energy independence to create jobs and stimulate economic growth.
vs.
39% The best way to reduce the budget deficit is to lower government spending and enforce pay as you go rules on any further spending.

*******************

from the CNN exit poll:

AVAILABILITY AND COST OF HEALTH CARE: 70% "Very Concerned"

ABORTION SHOULD BE: 55% "Always - " or "Mostly Legal"

POLICY TOWARD SAME-SEX COUPLES: 60% "Legally Marry" or "Civil Unions"


*********************

from PIPA.org :

The Separate Realities of Bush and Kerry Supporters(PDF):

Bush supporters have numerous misperceptions about Bush’s international policy positions. Majorities incorrectly assumed that Bush supports multilateral approaches to various international issues—the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (69%), the treaty banning land mines (72%); 51% incorrectly assumed he favors US participation in the Kyoto treaty—the principal international accord on global warming. After he denounced the International Criminal Court in the debates, the perception that he opposed it increased from 24% to 38% among Bush supporters, but a majority of supporters (53%) continued to believe that he favors it. Only 13% of supporters are aware that he opposes labor and environmental standards in trade agreements – 74% incorrectly believe that he favors including labor and environmental standards in agreements on trade.

In all these cases, there is a recurring theme: majorities of Bush supporters favor these positions, and they infer that Bush favors them as well. For example, in PIPA’s September 8 – 12 poll, 54% of Bush supporters favored participation in Kyoto, 66% favored participation in the land mines treaty, and 68% favored a treaty prohibiting testing nuclear weapons (CTBT). Apparently in the absence of evidence to the contrary, Bush supporters assume Bush feels as they do.

**********************

On most issues, Americans are solidly liberal, even when they have been seriously misled about which positions belong to which side of the debate. All the liberals have to do to turn this around is to make this clear. Take back the word, make it a badge of honor. That includes not letting republican rhetoric cloud the truth about their actual policy. They know what they're doing when they go to such efforts to keep Americans ignorant about their actions.

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[DaedelusNemo]

10. kick and...

I noticed that of the issues above, it's largely the sexual morality issues - abortion, homosexuality - that are the most controversial. While America leans more to accepting rather than discouraging homosexuality, it's awful close - and doesn't yet achieve a clear majority in favor. That's why Rove pushed those buttons as much as he could while trying to limit carefully any overt statements.

When it comes to economic policy, though, the sentiment in the country is solidly liberal - the Democrats win that argument if they can get it going.

My suggestion, then, (given that the Democrats have to effectively compete on security issues), would be that they should ride the economic issues hard and all the way - minimum wage, labor standards, guaranteed access to everything necessary for life, land of opportunity, the works - and on the social issues, stand firmly on the side of individual rights, but acknowedge the difficulty presented by the lack of a national consensus on the issue.

With abortion, that may mean agreeing to a general goal of reducing abortions while holding firm to rights, as Hillary Clinton did in a recent speech. A way to present it to red states could be that abortion is like guns - even if you don't like it, it's worse when it's illegal. And the fact is, historically, Democratic policies reduce abortion while Republican policies have increased them.

On gay marriage, perhaps the answer is simply that there isn't a Democratic consensus on it either - go ahead and have the debate, publicly, about the relative merits of civil unions and gay marriage. Most people are for one or the other, and i'm sure that's even more so for Democrats. Let it become an assumption that one or the other is going to happen, the question is which. Defuse the 'activist judge' element in republican rhetoric by pointing out that they have to decide if the legislature won't - that is fundamentlaly their job - and if a general consensus is eventually reached, the legislature can write any constitutional law they like, and the judges will work on that basis. If people don't want judges legislating, then they should do it themselves - now is it going to be civil unions or gay marriages?

[itzamirakul]

9. Kickity-kick-kick!