Turkey and the fallout from Iraq's impending fracture

[TayTay]

This is a very interesting (and depressing) analysis of what is going on in Turkey as a result of the fracturing of Iraq along sectarian lines. Sigh! Pay attention to what the analyst says about the ability of Iraq to even form a government. It doesn't look good. Senator Kerry, in effect, in his recent speeches on dissent, said that one way or the other we have to get out of Iraq. It looks like it will be the 'other way' in that we will have to leave because it is a full-on civil war that we are powerless to prevent, ameliorate or solve. Sigh!

http://www.pinr.com/

Iraq's Impending Fracture to Produce Political Earthquake in Turkey
Report Drafted By:
Jephraim P. Gundzik

Unusual political stability in Turkey faces upheaval from Iraq's impending fracture along sectarian lines. The birth of an independent Kurdish state in northern Iraq will end Turkey's E.U. accession hopes. The collapse of the accession process will strongly undermine the legitimacy of the ruling Justice and Development Party (A.K.P.), making it increasingly vulnerable to political attacks from Turkey's secular establishment. These attacks could prompt the disintegration of the Erdogan government as soon as the end of 2006.

Sectarianism Governs Iraq

Far from providing the long-awaited impetus for political and social stability, the results of Iraq's December 2005 parliamentary election were another step toward the division of the country along sectarian lines. Secular candidates supported by the Bush administration were trounced in the election, while the broad victory of the Iran-backed Shi'a political parties undermined Washington's influence in Iraq.

SNIP

Bush administration officials blame the escalation of sectarian violence in Iraq on the inability of the country's political parties to form a government. More likely, it is the other way around. Iraq's descent into civil war, which began with the February 2006 bombing of the al-Askari mosque in Samarra, has made it impossible for Shi'a and Sunni political parties to work together. Meanwhile, sectarian violence has raged out of control. At least 3,000 Iraqis have died in sectarian-related violence since February 2006.

Although Prime Minister Nouri Maliki is expected to soon fill his cabinet positions, Iraq's escalating civil war will continue to obstruct governance making it impossible for the country's new government to function. This, combined with the planned withdrawal in 2006 by most of Washington's coalition partners from Iraq, will pressure the Bush administration to begin withdrawing U.S. troops. A U.S. troop drawdown may be accelerated by electoral politics as the U.S. mid-term elections approach. The withdrawal of U.S.-led forces will fuel Iraq's civil war, speeding the country's fracture along sectarian lines.

Talk about doom and gloom. Again, this is not a situation in which the US can direct the outcome. It's full-on civil war. And Turkey may lose it's secular status and it's EU hopes. This is yet another world political disaster that the Bush Admin is responsible for.

[ProSense]

1. Tay!

You should add the Iran hearing info to the GD-P thread on this. Thanks!

[TayTay]

2. Thank you, great idea.

Will do so.

[Inuca]

3. Turkey and....

... its kurdish problems impacted by what's happening in Irak has been on my mind ever since the invasion. I am actually somewhat (and pleasantly) surprised that Turkey did not already get more involved in kurdish northern Iraq. But I am very worried about what a fracturing of Irak with an independent Kurdistan may lead to.

[MH1]

4. Can someone explain this

"The birth of an independent Kurdish state in northern Iraq will end Turkey's E.U. accession hopes."

I am not disputing it, I just don't understand it.

My emotional tendency is to lean toward "balkanization" when people are of drastically different cultures and can't seem to unite in a fair government that respects minority rights. Of course then you have to deal with territorial disputes, etc. But I just feel that people should be able to live under a government that truly represents them. I don't know why the Kurdish people should be subject to either a Turkish government or a Shi'ite government.

Of course maybe that is because I am a subject of Pennsylvania and know all too well what it is like to have no representation in the federal government (except such representation as I can mooch off the great state of Massachusetts).

[TayTay]

5. It's the religious wars.

The Kurds represent a threat to the Turks because a small but significant part of the population of Turkey is Kurdish. If Kurdistan forms then that puts pressure on Turkey because a number of their citizens might want to associate or even break off and become part of this new state. That is inherently destabilizing.

[Inuca]

6. Also

they had problems with rebelious kurds for many years. It is very likely that if an independent Kurdistan will form, military action will ensue. The EU would definitely not like that.

[MH1]

7. Yes, but why the statement

"The birth of an independent Kurdish state in northern Iraq will end Turkey's E.U. accession hopes."

Why? If an independent Kurdish state forms in Iraq, why does that stop Turkey from joining the E.U.? I just don't see the connection.

[TayTay]

8. Teh fallout from the whole messin Iraq

has been to push Turkey from a secular to a more religious state that is edging toward support for the extrimist elements in Islam. This is anathema to Europe. Turkey has been touted as a more secular state. It is being 'radicalized' and tht is off-putting, with good reason, for the EU.

[MH1]

9. Ah, but that is Turkey's fault.

If they choose to move in a political direction that sinks their hopes for EU membership, that is their own fault, not the fault of the Iraqi Kurds.

If it is America and others who are saying, "we can't let the Kurds have their own state because that will screw up our own geopolitical goals", I have a problem with that in principle.

But of course I do see what a disaster it is if Turkey loses its secularism and becomes controlled by radical Islamists.

This is a dilemma that really should have been avoided.

[TayTay]

10. Agreed on that.

And it is an 'unintended consequence' of Bush's War.