Interest Poll About 2008--Without Hillary

[PresidentObama]

I was at Pollingreport.com reading the 2008 Presidential polls, and overanalyzing the snoot of them. Because thats what I do :)

But anyway, I think no matter what 2008 poll it is you all see the pattern. Right now the big three are Hillary Clinton, John Kerry, and John Edwards. Virtually in the same order. And while I don't believe polls, they interest me.

If John does decide to run, it's quite obvious Hillary will be his 2008 Dean like mountain to climb. I was going through one of the new polls and it interested me. It showed with Hillary, that she got 43%. And as usual Kerry came in second with 17%, Edwards in third with 15%.

Then it got interesting. They removed Hillary from the poll, and Kerry leaded with 28%. Edwards was closest to topping him at 23% but even with the margin of error in play, Kerry would be leading.

This sparks many questions. If Kerry does run, what should he do to uproot the Hillary campaign? Is Hillary even running (at this point other then media hype, she hasn't been giving any signs of running), and if not does Kerry even have anything to worry about?

....Do I worry too much about these things?

Gah. What do you think?

[WildEyedLiberal]

1. I think Hillary's probably running...

... but if Warner runs too, they (and Edwards, in a lesser sense) will be competing for the same voters (moderate-centrist). I think Hillary may have an appeal to those who remember her as being a liberal first lady and to those who just like the idea of a woman. I think as long as Kerry keeps on doing what he's doing, he'll be in great shape - issues wise, Feingold seems to be his biggest competition, but Kerry's personal narrative is far more compelling and he has much more charm and charisma and strength of personality than Feingold.

[karynnj]

34. I agree totally with you on everything you said

17% is higher than Kerry's been recently - the last one actually showed Edwards ahead of him.

I agree with you that what Kerry needs to do is continue what he's been doing. He would lose stature if he overtly criticized Clinton or any other Democrat at this time - that he did little of that last time was usually cited as a Kerry plus.

Like Wel said, Clinton may be running well to the right of Kerry. Assuming Iraq is still an issue, Clinton may have put herself in a weird position. Kerry is a better debater than Hillary (if the 2000 ones for HRC were typical). Kerry also has positions he has honed for years. One of the issues people mention for Hillary is health care - but her plan didn't work and the major accomplishment on healthcare under Clinton was S-ChIP (which our favorite Senator had a lot to do with).

I also don't think it's an accident that Kerry is seen as a harsh critic of Bush. Like someone said many months ago, there seems to be a minor theme of "accountability" in many Kerry statements. If accountability, openess and honesty become big issues, Kerry is the better candidate - esp if the Republicans pick McCain.

[ginnyinWI]

2. Hillary may not even decide to run

Although she's making the right moves now. I just don't see how she can get a lot of support from most Dems. Bill's magic doesn't automatically transfer, IMO.

JK has the name recognition, as does Edwards. I think he's in a good place. And the fact that he's run before can be a plus, not a minus (regardless of bitter DUers' opinions). He knows how to learn from his mistakes.

But I think any poll this early on is going to mean little. We have to wait at least a year to really know anything.

[JanusAscending]

8. I totally agree with you !

I keep reminding DUers that Nixon won on his "second try" plus in my "heart of hearts" I feel John is "destined" to be President. He's the only one I would trust to clean up the MESS that bush has made of our country. I do have one "feminist friend" who has said she is pushing for Hillary, but IMO I don't think she will run in '08. (from my mouth to Gods ear!!) Can you give me one of these potential candidates who has the BRAINS....DIPLOMATIC PROWESS....EXPERIENCE...and connections that John has? I believe as this Diebold thing unravels, and things are brought into the light of day, people will realize,"we was robbed" and give JK another shot at what was STOLEN from him.:toast: WE MUST WIN IN '06, so we can Impeach the bastard in the W.H. then clean out and fumigate the rest of the crooks!:applause:

[PresidentObama]

3. What concerns me is...

We have a lot of good candidates possibly running in 2008. Will Kerry be overshadowed by all the fresh faces?

And the media, lord I hate it. Edwards was the VP candidate, and he seems to get more airtime then Kerry. It's sickening.

In any event, it's a long time. I just stress about it way too easily. Onto 2006 I suppose....

[Mass]

4. These polls are meaningless

They only represent name recognition. Forget them until early 2008.

[Island Blue]

5. I have a question (and I don't mean to diss Hillary here)

Has anyone here ever heard another Democrat actually say that they hope that Hillary is the nominee and that she should be the next POTUS? (Say this out loud I mean.) I know a lot of folks who say they will vote for her IF she is the Democratic candidate, but I've never actually talked to anyone who is excited about the possibility of her running. Has anyone?

[beachmom]

6. Well, that Senator Dayton guy did. Remember how he then told

the press that Kerry came barrelling toward him with hate in his eyes (ha, ha), telling him how dare he endorse someone else. For some reason the whole thing struck me as funny. Anyway, Dayton is not running again. Obviously, the Clintonistas are raving about her (Begala and Carville). But if you think about it, no one has endorsed anyone -- it's just WAY too early, and people are wisely keeping their opinions to themselves.

[Island Blue]

9. I really meant folks you know (family, friends, etc.)

I know there are folks out there who want her in the White House, I've just never talked to one personally.

[beachmom]

29. Most people I know aren't focussed on '08. They just don't care yet.

I think my Mom thought Hillary was good when she gave that speech on abortion (a tragic choice). But I guess I don't know anyone who follows politics as much as I do. They're living their lives, not fretting that much like I am.

So, I guess, no, no one has said they want Hillary as president, but I have definitely heard people (Repubs) who said they would NEVER vote for her.

Sometimes, I think the whole thing is a hoax, and she's not going to run. We shall see.

[WildEyedLiberal]

7. No one in my big Dem family

I have been working on them to support John, which my mom will eagerly do for sure. I've heard no one say they specifically like Hillary the best.

[sandrakae]

10. I don't think the bitch is running.

She can win the Democratic Nomination but she can't win the election. I truly believe that Kerry can win.

[WildEyedLiberal]

11. LOL

Tell us how you really feel about Hillary! :P

[sandrakae]

13. If she wins the nomination, I will support her.

If she wins the nomination, I will support her. She is not my first choice to win it. Hilary brings to much baggage. Think about it. They had to go back 35 years and say John didn't deserve medals because there is not real baggage.

[WildEyedLiberal]

14. I'll support any Dem in 2008 but John is the only one who

will earn any enthusiasm from me. I know far too much about how wonderful he is to possibly want anyone else to get the nod. If (horrors) he doesn't get it in 2008, I will be decidedly unenthusiastic.

[sandrakae]

15. Okay , You and I are on the same page. Lets pick his running mate.

I am liking.

Kerry/Biden - (I fell for Biden during the Clarence Thomas hearings. He was so respectful to Anita Hill. Biden like John has a lot of experience.)

Kerry/Bayh (Evan can bring him Indiana and maybe a few other red state)

Kerry/Mark Warner (He can bring Virginia)

[WildEyedLiberal]

16. I'm not such a fan of Biden

Though I'm way too young to remember the Thomas hearings. I just remember reading an article post-election last year in the New Yorker which interviewed Biden and he said Kerry's Iraq plan made him look weak, vs. Biden's more "manly" plan, or some bullshit like that. It pissed me off and I've never quite forgiven old Joe.

The other two choices are awfully centrist for me, but of the two I like Warner. He seems honest and sincere. I'd ADORE seeing Dick Durbin on the ticket, though only if we still have a Dem governor to appoint his replacement. Dick also comes up for reelection in 2008 though, so I doubt he'll commit to anything presidential. I would also mention Obama though I feel in 2008 he might still be too "rookie." (I'm impressed with my senators, can you tell? :P )

I really don't think Feingold would add anything to the ticket that Kerry doesn't bring. Hillary, just, no. Clark is another possibility - what I know of him I like, but that isn't much, to be honest.

[WildEyedLiberal]

17. Also I don't think Bayh would bring Indiana

He's only elected in Indiana because his father was a beloved governor (? or senator, I forget) and because he's very centrist. Indiana is a redneck wart upon the Midwest and I don't see it voting for Kerry ever, sadly, unless the Repukes REALLY fuck up bad, in which case Bayh might help. That said I think Warner has more national appeal than Bayh, and could carry more important red states that Kerry just needs a bit of a push on (ie, Virginia, which was much more purple than Indiana).

[karynnj]

35. Bayh was Senator Birch Bayh's son

Birch Bayh was great, far more liberal than his son - also, he seemed more colorful. I agree that Indiana is hopelessly red. They had 2 Democratic Senators in the late 60s/early 70s, Bayh and Hartke - but for national politics they were RED.

Other than a few big city areas and Lake County, near Chicago,the state was Republican. Students were advised to avoid one very scenic county because students, black and Jews were unwelcome. THe Grend Dragon of the KKK lived in Southern Indiana - I think in the 50s.

There were towns where you didn't live there if you didn't attend the chuch. A college friend took a beginner's swim class for gym because even though she lived on a lake - only the boys were allowed to swim there. (Her family took a lot of flack for letting her take a full scholarship and go to college.) I don't know if things changed much.

So, Indiana is very much a southern state.

[ginnyinWI]

18. it should probably be someone not from Capitol Hill

Not a Washington insider. So that would leave a governor like Warner to balance out the ticket. But really it would have to be someone Kerry likes to work with. He'd have to explain not picking Edwards again, too.

[sandrakae]

19. Edwards is a cutie pie, however he is just a one term senator.

John Edwards is a cutie pie and reminded me of Jack Tripper, but I never thought he has enough experience. I still believe they would have been a good team and would love to have him as Vice President. It upset me that he could not bring his home state. I think he needs to pick someone with a lot of experience. Of course I can get my yard signs out early if he picks Edwards because I have 8 left since all the yard signs on my street were stolen and two of us got new ones to replace all of them. I gave some to some new people that did not have any and still have the rest. I have been waiting for a good time to put one back out. If Rove is indicted my Kerry Edwards sign is going out on my front lawn.

[rosesaylavee]

32. Wish I had kept mine... ours were stolen then trampled on

so that the posts had to be replaced (wooden). I filed a police report. This also happened in 2000.

Anyway, I recycled them all after the election - truly dejected at teh time. Didn't know I could have kept them and continued tormenting whoever it was that took them or smashed them.

[karynnj]

36. Mine was stolen too

a week before the election - I was mad enough to call the police and filed a report! I was so pathetic I took a left-over bumper sticker, card board and a garden stake to make an adhoc Kerry sign. (Real yrad signs were hard to get and the election was close.)

My kids were convinced I had lost my mind - but I wanted something there!

[rosesaylavee]

37. Yeah, the cop stood in my livingroom

looking at me like I had lost my mind because I filing a report. He said, well, maybe kids did it. I asked him if that made it ok to vandalize? I felt a bit church-ladyish but what the hell, its my yard, my voice, my vote.

[karynnj]

38. That was about the reaction I got

Strangest question - He asked what it's value was. I mumbled aomething about the political process, democracy, and the respect for the rights of others to show their political preferences. (I think he wanted - of $5 or $10) I found out later that there was a law they could arrest people under - but it may well have been kids.

The policeman was nice and just doing his job.

[Island Blue]

20. Well, Edwards didn't even help the ticket carry NC.

That right there should be enough of an explanation of not picking him again. I think Mark Warner might be a good choice - I think he would help carry VA.

[Mass]

21. somebody who will surprise and attract people

I certainly would like a woman (no Hillary though) or somebody from the MidWest, who can bring his state more easily than a Southern state, or a minority.

It is time to make a statement that the presidency is not for white Christian men only. I would be supporting Hillary totally if she was not so opportunistic.

I always fought that Edwards's nomination was about as anticlimatic as could be: every pundit and every Democratic leaders except a few ones wanted him despite his obvious defaults. Obama could be an interesting choice. He certainly is young as a Senator, but he has a long life in public service in Illinois, which was not Edwards's case. There must be a few women governors as well that could be considered, as well as Senators governors (could Sebelius have won Kansas?). I like Bayh as well, and even if he does not win Indiana, he could win some neighboring states. I like Feingold as well,for the same reason.

[globalvillage]

25. OK, Clark. But don't laugh.

And, as the Senator says, it's way too early.

I think a Kerry/Clark ticket is our best chance. And who I like or don't like for VP personally doesn't matter. I'm pretty sure I'm voting for Kerry if he runs.:)

I honestly know a lot of people who will vote for anyone with 'General' in front of his name. Repub and Dem both. Hell, if they saw General Mills, Col Sanders or Captain Crunch on the ticket(and they're either dead or not people), they'd run to the polls waiving their flags. Most of the people I'm thinking of are in Nebraska, of all places, so if that tells you anything... And my brother, who, as a career military man, would feel obligated. He would have voted bush* in '04 out of a 'sense of duty', except he recognized Kerry had a real military record.
Clark will bring votes, and not the same votes as Sen Kerry. And not enough to be at the top of the ticket, either, but that spot is already reserved.:)

So, although I don't know spit about Wes, it doesn't really matter. The people who will vote for him as VP wouldn't bother to learn much about him either.
Of course, if he's the VP pick, I'll study up on him. I'm guessing he's a good guy.

He's also really good looking, but not in a baby faced John Edwards way. I think that helps.

OK. How superficial is all that? Doesn't matter. A lot of the voters who can be swayed aren't paying much attention beyond that. He may even be able to pick up a Fox News viewer or two who hasn't gone completely 'round the bend. And there's the Clarkies. They're a really dedicated bunch, and would work their asses off.

Would I rather have someone else? Maybe. But the goal is Sen Kerry. I don't really care who the VP is.

So, unless something is discovered over the next two years to change my mind, I think Clark's the best running mate for the Senator.

Kerry/Clark can win in '08.

[sandrakae]

26. Clark sounds good, but I already gave him a cabinet position.

I was looking at Clark for Secretary of Defense.

[WildEyedLiberal]

28. He can't

You have to be a civilian for ten years to hold the Sec. of Defense post - Wes hasn't been retired that long. I definitely like him as either VP or a high level Kerry admin post - possibly Sec. of State or NSA.

[WildEyedLiberal]

27. Yes, a Kerry/Clark ticket would be HOT

So count me in as superficial as well :evilgrin:

[_dynamicdems]

30. How about Jesse Jackson, Jr.? n/t

[rosesaylavee]

31. But didn't Biden vote for Thomas afterall?

I would say nix to Biden...

How about Kerry/Boxer? or Kerry/Obama?

[ProSense]

12. IMO

Regardless of whether or not Hillary Clinton runs, Kerry has nothing to worry about. I personally can't see why the hell she would, unless she has some plans on bowing out in her second term or dropping out of the race. I can't see how that will go over well. Whatever, all this speculation about Clinton doesn't make any sense. Election Day 2006 is a little over 10 months away, and the 2008 is two years from then. We'll know soon enough what Hillary's Senate intentions are and a lot can happen in three years (well a little under three years).

[jillan]

22. This is what I worry about...more than I care to admit..

That Kerry gives up his senate seat to run in 2008, and the unthinkable happens.

Boom, my favorite politician wouldn't be in politics anymore, and I couldn't handle that.
Even tho he's not in the WH, I sleep alot better at nite knowing he is fighting for our rights in the senate.

Sigh - now that I depressed everyone...

[sandrakae]

23. I worry about that too, but wouldn't he be a great catch for a University.

[jillan]

24. I would definitely go back to college in that case!

We just gotta get this man where he belongs. In the WH. Then he can become a professor.

[LittleClarkie]

33. Aye, but nobody wants Kerry you know

He's just supposed to be "electable".

So if he was never anyone's "real" choice, why would he be leading? Don't people want somebody else?

:sarcasm:

He does have name recognition. He has his mailing list. AND he has us.

What an unstoppable combination!

[blm]

39. I think Kerry will outperform anyone at the Dem debates, so I don't worry.

.

[TayTay]

40. It's so early.

2008 is going to be a real free-for-all. The 110th Congress is going to be insane no matter which way it goes in 2006. (And I hope Dems take back both houses. Gawd that would be great.)

We all know that Dems can eat their own. Well, without a clear heir apparent in the Dem Party (and no, Hillary doesn't count) in '08, it's going to get really insane. '04 was insane and yet at the time people were declaring to run for Prez, That Friggin Idiot had approvals in the mid 50's to 60's. Now, the Rethugs are wounded, Dems just feel in their bones that '08 is a Dem year for the White House and, OMG, this is going to be really interesting. (Hey, same thing on the Rethug side. Cheney can't run so it is a complete free-for-all.)

Hang on. You thought '04 was intense and hard-fought. That is going to look like a polite tea party by the time June '07 rolls around. (Actually much earlier than that, but by summer '07 it will be wild.) You can see people positioning right now. Everyone is trying to both get things done and not pump up any one else. (There is a serious lack of support for one Dem to another and yet they are trying to find unity of opposition. I'm going to get whiplash following this.)

And nobody knows shit. Anybody who tells you otherwise is either lying or delusional. Nobody knows what the hell is happening or will happen. This is just going to be too volatile for that.