Kerry would beat Bush

[whometense]

Okay, here's a little pick-me-up from the land beyond blogtopia. Don't lose your perspective, guys. :-)




President Bush delivers his speech after being sworn into office for a second term, as Sen. John Kerry looks on, at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, Jan. 22, 2005. (AP)

Poll: Kerry Would Top Bush Today

NEW YORK, Nov. 5, 2005
President Bush delivers his speech after being sworn into office for a second term, as Sen. John Kerry looks on, at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, Jan. 22, 2005. (AP)


(CBS) If last year’s presidential election were being held today, the results might well be different than the results of a year ago. 41% of registered voters say that if the 2004 election were being held today, they would cast their ballot for Democratic candidate John Kerry, while 36% say they would vote for President George W. Bush. 13% say they would vote for someone else, and 6% wouldn’t vote at all.




IF 2004 ELECTION WERE HELD TODAY…
(Registered Voters)

John Kerry
41%
George W. Bush
36%
Someone else
13%
Not vote
6%

In this poll, 12% of registered voters said they didn’t vote in 2004. Among those who did vote, 45% said they voted for Kerry last year, and 46% said they voted for President Bush. 2% reported voting for Nader, and 7% won’t say for whom they voted.

If the election were held this year, both candidates would retain more than eight in ten of the voters who supported them last year, according to this poll. But President Bush would lose about 3% of those who said they voted for him last year to his Democratic opponent. And although none of those who supported Kerry last year would now vote for Bush, 13% say they would support another candidate. But among voters who either didn’t vote in 2004 or voted for another candidate, or refused to say for whom they voted, Kerry leads Bush by 34% to 11%.

IF 2004 ELECTION WERE HELD TODAY…
(Registered Voters)

In 2004, voted for: Kerry
John Kerry
81%
George W. Bush
-
Someone else
13%
Not vote
4%

In 2004, voted for: Bush
John Kerry
3%
George W. Bush
84%
Someone else
7%
Not vote
3%

In 2004, voted for: Other/didn't vote
John Kerry
34%
George W. Bush
11%
Someone else
23%
Not vote

Note that 2004 Kerry voters are still pissy about the loss, but nonetheless, none of them would switch sides. Attitudes change slowly, but they do change.

[karynnj]

1. This is interesting - maybe MIT should make Kerry a time machine

In addition to the fact that no one who said they would vote for Kerry goes to Bush, the 13% of Kerry voters who say they would vote for another candidate are likely our friends over in DU - and if this were real not hypothetical they would be forced with a real choice - what other candidate. Likely they are the hardcore ABB and they would likely vote Kerry and whine about holding their noses.

[sandnsea]

2. My thoughts exactly, lol

That 13% is DU!!

[JI7]

3. Kerry looks so good in that pic

he looks tanned and handsome.

Chimp looks like some frightened idiot.

[karynnj]

6. Tanned, handsome, but sad

I couldn't watch the ingaugural, so I watched the commentary here. The pictures helped so much, especially one photo where a playful Kerry was pushing Senator Baukus's cowboy hat. Kerry and Hawkins were grinning like schoolboys. How Kerry had the strength of character to sit through that with the grace he did is beyond me. Especially as he knew there was some chance that at least in a real sense (not legal) the election was stolen.

[Firespirit]

4. I didn't realize there were that many disgruntled freeps...

The ones who wouldn't vote for Kerry, wouldn't switch to Bush, but would vote for someone else. (One guess as to who -- at least for a substantial percentage of them.) Not as many as THEY would like to think there are, but still too many.

And yet, what's that again about Democrats revolting against Kerry and not liking him? 81% doesn't look like a mass revolt to me, just a revolt of D---bots (fill in the blank :P) and lefty freeps, who never liked him to begin with.

[ray of light]

5. Actually, that 13% are probably the ones in here and kos

bashing him. But he draws more people back too.

It's just way too early to go after the 08 thing. And the "how would you vote today" simply proves the very reason WHY the corporate media trashed him and THK and also proves why Bush's administration obstructed justice and why Judy went to jail and why TIME refused to talk about the spy leak.

Proves it all.

[karynnj]

7. This really doesn't tell us that much about 2008

The main thing it reflects is that Bush has lost enormous support. If this were a real election now with only the choices on the ballot Kerry would win by a landslide. The 13% would likely all not leave as there really is nowhere to go. They are likely ABB.

The other thing is that in the election, Bush had huge margins in Texas and other very red states. Even without assuming that Kerry would get much of the 13% that was going to other (I guess Cobb or Nader), this would push so many states to Kerry.

For 2008, the only inference is that Kerry is still acceptable to 81% of the people who voted for him last year. But there are 2 more years. What is clear to me is that over the entire time he has been in the public eye, he has been a very dignified, graceful person.

[TayTay]

8. Wow! This is ahead of schedule.

George McGovern didn't get a polling plurality of the vote until 1974, two years after the election he lost to Nixon.

Wistfully sad numbers. But I like the inaugural pic. I always think of that one as Kerry's way of telling Bush that he is still in the game and still watching him. John Kerry has been through a lot in his life, but he's a weeble, he takes a punch and just seems to find a way to come back.

He didn't go anywhere, he's still there and still taking punches. That is the mark of a person of character, not that you never get hit, but that you come back from a hit. That speaks volumes.