Why the troop surge is a bad idea

[TayTay]

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2006/12/18/112647/99

From Larry Johnson, who is scaring the crap out of me lately:

Regardless of your feelings or beliefs about sending more U.S troops to Iraq, you must accept the painful truth that anything we do to salvage or strengthen the existing Shia-dominated government in Iraq redounds to the benefit of Iran. If we weigh in on the side of the Sunni insurgents we run a serious risk that the Shias will attack us in strength and, at least for the short time, cut our supply lines that run through the heart of Shia territory. Moreover, anything we do to militarily challenge Iran will weaken our influence in Iraq and jeopardize the mission of our forces in Iraq.

George Bush has made his choice and it is calamitous. He rejected out of hand the proposal to "Go Home". And dismissed the "Go Long" course of action, which would have emphasized counterinsurgency, public works vice combat, and diplomatic overtures to Iran and Syria. Instead, he has thrown his weight behind "Go Strong".

The key elements of the "go strong" plan are outlined in the accompanying analysis by Pat Lang (see Stalingrad on the Tigris?). What is not yet announced, but implicit in the plan, is a direct attack on Moqtada al Sadr and his militia, the Jayshi al Mahdi (JAM). During their meeting in Jordan last month, George Bush reportedly told Maliki in no uncertain terms that he would have to separate himself from al Sadr or become a casualty in the upcoming offensive against the bearded cleric. Ironically, Moqtada al Sadr has discouraged sectartian strife rather than egged it on and, among the various Shia clerics, is more receptive to working with Sunni counterparts to rebuild Iraq.

It is no surprise that Maliki returned to Iraq and is making a desperate bid to align himself now with Hakim and the "moderates" in the current government and is signaling he will abandon al Sadr. Bush, in his zeal for a deal in Iraq, is either ignorant or oblivious to the fact the al Hakim (a recent visitor to the White House) is closely aligned with Iran; in contrast to al Sadr who is more independent. Notwithstanding these facts the "'Decider'-in-Chief" has rolled the dice and will try to rub out Sadr's JAM. He also is betting he can do so without provoking a full-scale revolt among the Shia.

[TayTay]

1. Scarier still is the last paragraph of that post

For now the focus is on Iraq, but do not imagine for a second that the neo-cons and their patrons in the Bush Administration have given up their quest to take down Iran. The dream is alive. Iran is the longterm obsession. What the Bushies in their zeal fail to realize is that their efforts to get control over events in Iraq are destined to backfire and will make it more difficult to contain the threat they claim we face from Iran. Bush and Cheney don't have a learning curve, it is a flat line.

We need that new Congress to start talking, the sooner the better.

[beachmom]

2. Agreed. But I have to admit, the more this goes on, the more radical

I think the Congress needs to go. Unfortunately, we have Reid as Majority Leader, who really isn't a leader at all. If Congress lets Bush continue with his folly to the detriment to our country and the Democrats do nothing of substance to stop him, then the people will give up on BOTH parties. I don't care what pundits and DC insiders are saying, the time for Democrats to stand up in Congress will be arriving very soon. They need to stop the madness, and win all the parliamentary games. All this silly '08 talk is irrelevant right now -- what matters is 2007. Will 2007 be the pivotal DISASTER year, or will it be the year when our country started going back to her ideals and behaving reasonably? That is the most significant question.

[ProSense]

3. If they hesistate too long, they risk

a messy withdrawal. I don't believe Congress can afford to wait until the U.S. is forced out of Iraq.

[TayTay]

4. I agree. Congress needs to hit the ground running with this

Sen. Biden will start 3 weeks of Senate Foreign Relations Committee (SFRC) hearings starting on Jan 9th. He has asked SecofState Condileeza Rice to appear during those first 3 weeks.

Biden has announced that he is opposed to the the so-called troop surge.

So, round 1 is coming up soon. This is just beginning. Maybe this will put some of the silly '08 talk to rest.