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I don't think the cylons knew where Kobol was, though I do think they were tracking the fleet.
They seem to have planned for the Galactica in particular to survive. Enough to put at least one cylon on board in Boomer that didn't take part at all in the attack on the colonies. Who knows how many else were already there, but certainly the journalist as well, which makes 2 plants on the galactica prior to the attack.
They also planted the third one on the Ragnar Anchorage, so they expected the Galactica to survive, and for them to head to Anchorage to resupply.
They put at least a fourth plant on in the duplicate 6 who tried to frame baltar (or was the idea to give him a baptism by fire so poeple would trust him) and the fifth plant in the duplicate of the guy fromthe anchorage who had been hiding on the rising star, and the sixth plant in the duplicate journalist who blew himself up.
That's a bit many to be chance. Each one also is serving some purpose it seems. To sew dissent, or shore up confidence in Baltar, which is suspicious enough.
They believed that the humans would get to kobol and earth, because it's in the prophecy. For some reason they want this to happen. They want either the humans to find earth, or for them to find earth. If they knew, they'd just go.
They weren't at Kobol when it was first found, but because Boomer found it, that's all thats necessary for the Cylons to immediately go there. Why? Because the prophecy says that there would be a confrontation there. Obviously if the prophecy says that they reach earth, then the cylons expect to lose there at Kobol.
As far as the arrow, it would then also make sense the cylons expect this, and won't try to impede starbuck to much.
What do the cylons want? Why do they want it? Those might be some of the bigger questions.
They don't want all the humans compoletely eradicated. They want to cross-breed for some reason. They want to serve 'god'. They want to follow 'prophecy'.
So if they're blindly religious, they see them doing gods work by nearly annihilating mankind, and letting them get to earth. The cross-breeding though...not sure about that.
Are the human-cylons...if they can breed are they in fact clones? Are they not really full on cylons? Baltar can detect them, because they say their neural pathways are different, scilica based? Really? Or is there something in there that holds the brain together of an otherwise human clone?
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