I'll assume Gore really isn't planning to run in 2008

[DavidDvorkin]

Unless the frequency of these speeches starts increasing. That would be a signal, it seems to me.

[AlGore-08.com]

1. That might be one way to gage, but not the best way

Gore has a different problem than most of the other potential candidates: people like Phil Bresden, who may run, need to get national exposure for the first time. They need to build national organizations for the first time (or solidify one for the first time). They are part of a pack right now - - second tier candidates compared to Gore, HRC, Kerry (and possibly Edwards and Clark, depending how you define a first tier candidate).

Gore just needs to nip in and out of the spotlight long enough for his supporters (financial included) to hope he will run again. But he also has to keep a low enough profile that potential primary opponents can't attack him for it, shouting "Al Gore is already running for President and it's only April 2005! Doesn't the guy think about anybody but himself?" (Kerry's already taken some heat for what is perceived to be him actively campaigning for 2008.)

Since Gore is out of office, he will naturally be making fewer speeches than someone like Kerry or Bresden, who has the "plausible deniability" of office factored in, no matter how implausible - - "I'm not positioning myself for 2008, I'm giving this speech because I'm deeply concerned about the effects of the Interstate Weights and Measures Standardization Act of 1948 on German-American rutabaga farmers here in Lima, Ohio."

The best guide to what Gore's 2008 time line might be is to look at how he tested the waters in the 2004 cycle. Gore intentionally avoided the press until the fall of 2001, but did not begin obviously campaigning until the late spring of 2002, when he openly met with many of his major donors in Nashville. Shortly after that, he gave his first "campaign" speech at the Florida State Democratic party convention in April, 2002. (He had given several major speeches before, some at Dem party events, but this was the first one with obvious campaign elements - - preprinted signs with an outline of Florida and the words "Still Gore Country" being the best, IMNSHO.)

In the fall of 2002, Gore also did the talk show circuit, promoting his latest book. He was asked a lot during those interviews whether he was going to run, and he said he was considering it and would decide early in 2003. Gore's network is scheduled to launch this August. He may do some talk shows at that time, but I would be surprised if he says anything definite about running or not running - - because August 2005 is just too early.

But he might, because Gore is always setting trends. Before he decided against running in 2004, his advance work consisted of driving himself around Iowa in a rented car, talking to ordinary folks. This totally baffled the media, who did not understand what he was doing or why.