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I personally don't think that most people's thoughts manifest unless they're really obsessing about things, and, if they're doing that, I think that there are remedies (such as the "Cancel, cancel" or positive affirmation methods) to undo it. For instance, I have a real safety concern, so when I go outside at night by myself (even for a minute), I immediately feel a twinge of fear. As soon as that happens, I tell myself (and the Universe!) that I am safe and protected. It's as simple as that for me. That's how I use it in my life. Does it really do anything? I can't be certain, but I think that it does. However, I don't believe in it strongly enough to risk walking in a dangerous area with confidence that I'll be safe. Others might though...
I sort of think of it as walking. If we were adults but had never been taught to walk, learning to do so would be quite scary, especially if nobody around us is already doing it or has ever done it. If nobody that we know walked, when we first try to walk, we wouldn't know if it were even possible until someday someone gives it a try and falls down often enough to work through it to actually master the skill of walking. After that first person learns how to walk, it's not nearly so scary for subsequent people who take on the task of mastering the skill because they've seen it in action.
The problem with manifestation is that, unlike walking, there's no way to really tell for sure that it worked. Maybe you're actually right, and it isn't how things really work. We won't know for sure until someone either masters it to the point where they can do it unfailingly very quickly so that we have the proof that our rational minds can understand, or we get to the other side and have this veil lifted from our eyes so that we again know the true laws of the Universe.
Another thing that complicates things, in my opinion, is that people have different ideas about how all of this manifestation stuff works. Some say to state what you want to the Universe, expect it, and let it go without dwelling on it any further. Others say that we should focus on it intensely -- imagining every detail of it, feeling it, etc. I've seen both ways work, but again it's just anecdotal information.
I'm not 100% convinced, but I'm much further on the side of manifestation working than not working, at least at this point in my life. Tomorrow might be another story... (I reserve the right to completely change my mind at any time. :))
In reference to what you mentioned about bad things happening to people, I think that we need to take into account karma, life lessons that we chose before we incarnated, and also just plain old bad luck or others' free will. (I want to make it clear that I don't believe that people automatically deserve all of the bad things that happen to them. A "bad" thing might be karmic, and it might not be.)
:hug:
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