Bird flu could kill 2 million Britons

[Silverhair]

http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/health_medical/story.jsp?story=619562

"Bird flu could kill 2 million Britons
By Geoffrey Lean, Environment Editor
13 March 2005


Two million Britons could die in the bird flu pandemic that experts warn is both imminent and inevitable, one of the country's leading authorities has told The Independent on Sunday.

Professor Hugh Pennington, the president of the Society for General Microbiology and professor emeritus of bacteriology at Aberdeen University, also criticised the the Government's "optimistic" attitude to a potentially devastating pandemic, likening it to official complacency over BSE a decade ago.

In the starkest warning yet over the potentially devastating impact of the pandemic, Professor Pennington said that the number of deaths has been greatly underestimated. He expects the flu - like the 1918 pandemic which killed more people than the First World War - to cause the deaths of many people from pneumonia "which we are still not very good at treating".

He said: "If the virus moves into people there will be no stopping it. It will be here before we know it." Ministers have sought to play down the potential impact of bird flu by saying that only some 50,000 people would die in Britain. But this has already been contradicted by Scotland's chief medical officer, who says it would be 10 times worse."

Article continues at the link.

In Vietnam, there is now a case where a nurse has contacted the disease from another nurse, so we are starting to see human-human transmission.

[still_one]

1. frankly this is old news

believe it or not who and cdc are working with several drug companies to develop a vaccine

china has developed a vaccine for poultry

yes, it is potentially very bad, but people are doing something

[Silverhair]

3. What is news about it is that this knowledgable person is talking about 2M

Bird flu articles have been around for several months now. That's true. That it is starting to be taken very seriously by other than the WHO & CDC is what is news.

[still_one]

11. avion flu has been around for several years

[Silverhair]

14. Yes, first isolated in the 1990s.

I think 1997, but I dont' feel like googling to find it.

That still doesn't change the fact that this guy talking about 2 million Britons possibly dying IS news.

Or do you think that bird flu posts should be banned from DU.

BTW - They are banned from Free Republic. I created an FR account to post about ABF on FR, and was careful to not have any politics in the post. I was banned on my first post. Since I had no politics I can only conclude that it is a banned topic there.

[still_one]

16. No, I didn't even suggest that Silverhair

and I do think it is good to talk about, and even push our representatives to action

I'm just stating that panic will not help the situation, developing a vaccine will

[Warpy]

Agreed, the developed countries may do fairly well

but this thing will hit whole continents very hard.

Also, it remains to be seen how much profiteering will be done if they do manage to develop a vaccine, and whether or not they ration it in the US according to economic class.

There are too many variables here. For instance, the death rate may not be anywhere near that 70% they've cited, simply because so many milder cases are going undetected in rural areas.

[Ian David]

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Tell Republicans to boycott them and refuse to be vaccinated, or else people will start having sex with boxturtles.

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[Silverhair]

10. The intent of that sign is sarcasm.

I do hope you know that.

[Ian David]

22. Yes, I do know that. It highlights the hypocrisy of the hate-du-jour

In fact, I'm the one that made that sign.

Visit:
www.ChurchSignGenerator.com

[Silverhair]

33. OOPS. Knee-jerk on my part. Sorry.

When I saw the sign with no explanation, I though that you had taken it seriously and was posting it here to be seen as an example of Christian hatred of ______. I jumped to that conclusion because there are so many thread and posts on DU that are very hostile toward Christianity. I thought yours was one of them.

Regret the misunderstanding. BTW - I have bookmarked your web site.

[Maple]

2. Britain could get hit with a meteor too

but it's not very likely.

Everything's a crisis these days. :eyes:

[brentspeak]

4. Good grief, this is beginning to worry me

The British government is optimistic that "only" 50,000 Britons will die from this bird flu?

I can't imagine the panic here in the U.S. if this thing turns out to be real. Let's hope it's all just overblown disease-expert nonsense.

[Maple]

6. Well stop worrying

They say this every year.

Gets them more grant money.

[Silverhair]

7. Indeed, I do hope it turns out to be a dud.

But right now it doesn't look good.

[Maple]

8. It's always a dud

but they scare people with it every year.

[Silverhair]

9. And your scientific and historical knowledge is???

Have you read the history of the 1918 flu? 675,000 Americans killed by it in a few months time? Humanity is more densely packed than it was then, with faster travel. Most of us work in buildings with closed air circulation systems. Bacteria are becoming antibiotic resistant, and some viruses are now mutating faster.

It is like a chess game. We make a move, and then evolution counters that move.

Just because we are humans, does not mean that we are immune to the laws of biology. One of those laws is that as population density increases, the likelihood of an epidemic in that population becomes greater, thereby thinning the heard down. It applies to us just like it does to deer, mice, fish, etc.

[Maple]

12. This is not 1918

We do not have outdoor toilets, and well water in buckets.

We do not have WWI.

We have medicine, respirators, and high tech equipment.

There are no 'laws of biology'

Japan and China are very crowded and always have been. They have no more 'epidemics' than anyone else. The US isn't remotely crowded in comparison.

Stop scaring yourself over nonsense.

Every year people believe this crap...

[GHOSTDANCER]

26. I understand your intent. It's like fearing the sun will implode.

You can be more constructive with your time and all that, but you do have to admit the possibility of population decreasing for the longevity of a nation concern is roaming around the minds of many leaders around the globe. See a nation takes on a life of it's own, protocols are drawn to keep the beast alive no matter what. And the recent onslaught of many micro biologists doesn't settle well with me either.

I'd like to believe that if a large pandemic happens which by my guess will again, that it's mother nature putting things in order. unfortunately I have a strong inclination that it will be a bunch of wealthy, white, gasoline addicted , all-u-can-eat , assholes that are addicted to a lifestyle they won't/can't give up.

To ignore it would be just what they would want you to. That would allow the snake to get closer. And time is the only weapon we have.

[still_one]

15. things are much different than 1918

in some cases it is worse because of the travel between countries is much more frequent, but that is also countered by our scientific knowledge which has increased

Should you be concerned, YES

Should you panic, NO

Aventis, GlaxoSmithKline, and other pharmaceutical companies are working on this

The Chinese are working on a poultry vaccine against this flu

[bilgewaterbill]

13. This stuff scares the bejeebers out of me.

Anyone know of an anticpated chronology re: bird flu progression?

[still_one]

17. The one thing they know is that it is 90% fatal

in those who have contracted it

[Maple]

18. Which is how many people?

[still_one]

19. My stats were a little off, but still greater than 50%

Avian influenza – situation in Viet Nam - update 11

11 March 2005

The Ministry of Health in Viet Nam has today confirmed an additional 10 cases of human infection with H5N1 avian influenza. Today’s report is an official notification to WHO of some recent cases, whose infection was detected in March, combined with retrospective notification of older cases, some of which date back to late January. Of these newly reported cases, three have been fatal.

This notification of cases follows new reporting procedures established within the Ministry of Health in collaboration with WHO staff in Hanoi.

Today’s official report brings the total number of laboratory-confirmed cases in Viet Nam, detected since mid-December 2004, to 24. Of these, 13 have been fatal.

Pending further information from the Ministry of Health, WHO will issue details showing dates of onset, outcome, and province for all 24 cases in tabular form.

Full information on new cases, including those that may be closely related in time and place, is critical to ongoing assessment of the pandemic risk posed by the H5N1 virus. Rapid field investigation of each new case is essential to ensure timely detection of clusters of cases occurring in family members or health care workers. Such cases can provide the first signal than the virus is altering its behaviour in human populations and thus alert authorities to the need to intervene quickly.

Total human cases (all countries) since January 2004

The first human cases of H5N1 infection, linked to poultry outbreaks in parts of Asia that have been ongoing since December 2003, were reported in January 2004 in Viet Nam and Thailand. Since then, altogether 69 cases have been reported, of which 46 were fatal.

Human cases have occurred in three phases: from January through March 2004 (35 cases, 24 deaths), from August through October 2004 (9 cases, 8 deaths), and from December 2004 to the present (25 cases, 14 deaths). In the present phase, the total includes a single case in Cambodia, which was fatal, in addition to those in Viet Nam.

http://www.who.int/csr/don/2005_03_11/en/

[Maple]

21. 69 cases worldwide

whoop. tee. do. :eyes:

[still_one]

23. first of all the reason for that is because it still isn't human to human

I believe your view is actually trivializing this

They did the same thing about HIV because they thought it only affected a limited group

I respectfully disagree with you that because the number is small now it is nothing to be concerned about. An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure

[Maple]

25. A million people a year....every year.... die of malaria

Call me when you get excited about that.

Instead of phantoms.

69 people indeed. Sheesh.

[still_one]

27. and malaria is spread by one human biting another human

Malaria can also be controlled in a latent state, but because of politics of most of the countries affected are ignored

This is something that can be stopped before it even starts?

If they would have done that with HIV, can you imagine how many lives could have been saved?

[still_one]

20. Sinch January 2004

Cumulative Number of Confirmed Human Cases of Avian Influenza A/(H5N1) since 28 January 2004


Total cases 69
Deaths 46

[Ian David]

24. Symptom Progression of The Bird Flu

Stage One:





Stage Two:





Stage Three:




Stage Four:

[still_one]

28. LOL

[Rainscents]

29. LOL... very funny!!!

[Theres-a]

32. Nice!

[OneBlueSky]

30. if I were REALLY cynical, I might think that . . .

all this talk of the bird flu and its mortality rate is setting the public up for a massive reduction of the world population . . . an orchestrated reduction that will be made to look like a natural occurance . . .

IF I were REALLY cynical . . .

[this_side_up]

31. Orchestrated? You betcha!

I am wondering who (person or country)
will start it and when it spreads to country(s)
X, Y and Z, will they retaliate with what they have?