Rise in autism cases may not be real

[Warpy]

CHICAGO - A rise in autism cases is not evidence of a feared epidemic but reflects that schools are diagnosing autism more frequently, a study said Monday.

Children classified by school special education programs as mentally retarded or learning disabled have declined in tandem with the rise in autism cases between 1994 and 2003, the author of the study said, suggesting a switch of diagnoses.
-----------
Subsequent increases in the number of autism cases have varied widely by state but the average prevalence among 6- to 11-year-olds enrolled in special education programs increased from 0.6 per 1,000 pupils in 1994 to 3.1 per 1,000 in 2003.

During the same period, diagnoses of mental retardation fell by 2.8 per 1,000 students and diagnoses of learning disabilities dropped by 8.3 per 1,000 students.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/12131958/

[Deja Q]

1. Splendid. Now we can revoke more of the laws regarding water quality.

Like mercury content and such...

Eat that fish, y'all. It's brain food. Even the murcury won't make you a mentally deformed person. :sarcasm:

And just because we're different, doesn't mean we're not capable to be put to proper use in a civilized society.

(Asperger's is not outright autism, but is in the Autistic Disorder Spectrum...)

[NMMNG]

22. Do I need to kick some butt?

And just because we're different, doesn't mean we're not capable to be put to proper use in a civilized society.


Who's been telling you this? Do I need to come over there and pull out my can of Whoop-A$$? :hug:

[BlueEyedSon]

2. IIRC, a recent study found that mercury in vaccines has a role in autism

and that autism is decreasing as mercury-laden vaccines are used less often....

[Name removed]

4. Deleted sub-thread

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[kiteinthewind]

5. Show me the link, and I hope it is science based. n/t

[BlueEyedSon]

6. Google is your friend

[Warpy]

8. Are you kidding?

This has been done to death by pediatric neurology and no link has ever been found.

The only "studies" these antivaccination folks ever cite are long on anecdote, misinterpreted charts and weasel words and short on actual data. You know, quackery.

You'll never convince a true believer, though. They have an unshakeable belief in the medical-pharmaceutical complex and its evil plans for their precious children.

[BlueEyedSon]

10. Journal of the American Physicians and Surgeons

Early Downward Trends in Neurodevelopmental
Disorders Following Removal of Thimerosal-
Containing Vaccines
David A. Geier, B.A.
Mark R. Geier, M.D., Ph.D.
Download article in PDF format

http://www.jpands.org/vol11no1/geier.pdf

[kiteinthewind]

12. Did you read the disclaimer at the end?

Study after study after study has proven otherwise. Did you read the disclaimer at the end?

"Potential conflict of interest : David Geier has been a consultant in vaccine/biologic cases before the no-fault National Vaccine Injury Compensation Program (NVICP) and in civil litigation. Dr. Mark Geier has been an expert witness and a consultant in vaccine/biologic cases before the no-fault NVICP and in civil litigation."
:think:

[BlueEyedSon]

13. Everybody has an agenda, right? Think about the money behind

the OTHER side....

BTW, cigarettes are safe as milk.

[kiteinthewind]

23. Not gonna spend too much H20 on this, but I am a public health nurse

and I have SEEN the positive results of immunizations on disease prevention. Thousands of children DIED every year before vaccines for the disease were developed. We have seen in Japan, Canada, and GB the effects (outbreaks) of parents backing off of immunizations. I totally agree with you on the greed of pharmaceutical companies, but vaccines are developed and monitored under very strict guidelines in public health, so I have faith in that system-first hand. 'Nuf said.
:hi:

[MrMonk]

41. and there are websites professing that milk is the cause

of about every chronic disease known to man. Guess what claims they make about evidence contrary to their positions?

[Warpy]

15. Good luck. I usually don't bother to answer this stuff

because they cling to their beliefs just as firmly as any cult member does. Discussions are generally counterproductive, at best.

I just post the news as I find it.

[kiteinthewind]

24. You're right, and I know that, but have to at least put my .02 in. Then

let it go!
:hi:

[HuckleB]

42. Actually...

no other study has been able to link it as a cause. However, that does not "prove" anything otherwise.

[mzteris]

45. This Geier???

". . . Dr. Geier has called the use of thimerosal in vaccines the world's "greatest catastrophe that's ever happened, regardless of cause."
He and his son live and work in a two-story house in suburban Maryland. Past the kitchen and down the stairs is a room with cast-off, unplugged laboratory equipment, wall-to-wall carpeting and faux wood paneling that Dr. Geier calls "a world-class lab - every bit as good as anything at N.I.H." . . . He has also testified in more than 90 vaccine cases, he said, although a judge in a vaccine case in 2003 ruled that Dr. Geier was "a professional witness in areas for which he has no training, expertise and experience."
In other cases, judges have called Dr. Geier's testimony "intellectually dishonest," "not reliable" and "wholly unqualified."
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/06/25/science/25autism.html?ex=1145419200&en=0417f9782dfe4928&ei=5070

[kiteinthewind]

11. I'm with, ya! I am a public health nurse, and I am sick to death of

hearing the 'vaccines cause autism' line. Study after study after study has proven it to be UNTRUE!!
Glad to hear there are others who feel the same!
:hi:

[BlueEyedSon]

14. Bioavailable mercury causes nerve damage. Thimerosal contains mercury.

Why take chances?

I am sick to death of powerful CORPORATIONS dictating what is "safe". If it were up to them cigarettes would be healthfood.

[Warpy]

16. Carbon monoxide displaces oxygen in the blood and

causes suffocation. Cigarette smoke contains carbon monoxide. Therefore breathing secondhand cigarette smoke causes suffocation.

All municipal water is treated with chlorine to kill bacteria. Breathing chlorine gas is fatal. Therefore breathing when water is coming out of the tap is fatal.

Do you see the fallacy yet?

No reputable researcher who hasn't an axe to grind says there is any sort of a link. Now we know the reported rise in recent cases is an illusion caused by refining a diagnosis. Plus, thimerosol was used in vaccines from the mid 1930s and the "spike" in autism conspiracists like to claim didn't happen for nearly 60 years.

Give it up.

[Celebration]

17. conclusion

"There may be as yet unknown environmental triggers behind autism, study author Paul Shattuck of the University of Wisconsin at Madison said, but his research suggested the past decade’s rise in autism cases was more of a labeling issue."

Fair enough.

"Now we know the reported rise in recent cases is an illusion caused by refining a diagnosis."

Know? A study suggesting something doesn't mean that we *know*, does it?

[HuckleB]

43. Indeed.

At least one study regarding an increase in cases of autism could not link the full extent of the increase to the "labeling issue."

[BlueEyedSon]

18. What is the minimum dose of asbestos or plutonium you would be happy to

have your babies ingest?

[kiteinthewind]

26. Well said, Warpy!

:yourock:

[beam me up scottie]

36. Beautiful.

:applause:

[kiteinthewind]

25. It is not the mercury as found in fish, etc. It is a different form

and I am not going to argue with you, just agree to disagree. I have seen the positive impact of vaccinations on public health. They are the most important health breakthrough in the last century.
:hi:

[BlueEyedSon]

28. Vaccines are great, toxic vaccine preservatives are not......

I did not mean to imply that I suspect the active ingredient(s) of vaccines are harmful (although they can make you sick).

[trotsky]

29. BES, it is important to distinguish between types of mercury.

Methylmercury is the most dangerous kind. It's an organic mercury compound, and also the type found in the environment. It's what contaminates fish, water, the air, etc. It's also very difficult to expel from the body, thus it hangs around and causes damage.

Ethylmercury is another organic mercury compound, but it's eliminated from the body much more readily than methylmercury. Thimerosal is metabolized by the body into ethylmercury.

And finally, elemental mercury is when the mercury atoms are not locked up in a compound but are free. If you drank the contents of a mercury thermometer, you'd be ingesting elemental mercury. Not a smart thing to do, but elemental mercury is actually very poorly absorbed through the digestive tract. Elemental mercury is far more readily absorbed in the form of inhaled mercury vapor.

As with most substances, it's the form and dose that determine toxicity. Table salt is made up of a dangerous metal and a poisonous gas. Yet we eat it with almost all our foods - how dangerous!

[HuckleB]

20. Actually...

a recently published study does indicate that there may have been an issue with vaccines and autism.

No previous studies could make this link, but that doesn't mean it doesn't exist. Another study published last year showed that autism rates in areas with higher levels of mercury in the air tend to be higher. In the end, every additional exposure to mercury seems dangerous, regardless of final proof.

This is not to say that much of the "rise in autism" has always been hooey, as this study shows, and as many of us who work with people with autism have known from the get go.

[mzteris]

44. see above post......

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=222&topic_id=6691&mesg_id=6741

[HuckleB]

49. Uh huh.

Are you saying that the studies re: Mercury and Autism ignore all that?

[mzteris]

50. show me one legitimate

study by reputable scientists that has been replicated.

NOTHING quoted on Mercola counts IMHO - he's a charlatan of the highest order.

[HuckleB]

52. Interesting response.

Change the topic. That explains a lot.

[mzteris]

54. eh?

I'm asking for a legitimate study linking mercury and autism. How is that changing the topic?

I've yet to see a legitimate one referenced so I'd be very interested in seeing it.

[HuckleB]

57. Look at the discussion we were having.

Your response does not follow. It is merely a diversionary tactic.

[mzteris]

59. OK - let's look:

YOU: a recently published study does indicate that there may have been an issue with vaccines and autism.

No previous studies could make this link, but that doesn't mean it doesn't exist. Another study published last year showed that autism rates in areas with higher levels of mercury in the air tend to be higher. In the end, every additional exposure to mercury seems dangerous, regardless of final proof.

This is not to say that much of the "rise in autism" has always been hooey, as this study shows, and as many of us who work with people with autism have known from the get go.


ME: see above post...... (said above post) Methylmercury is the most dangerous kind. It's an organic mercury compound, and also the type found in the environment. It's what contaminates fish, water, the air, etc. It's also very difficult to expel from the body, thus it hangs around and causes damage.

Ethylmercury is another organic mercury compound, but it's eliminated from the body much more readily than methylmercury. Thimerosal is metabolized by the body into ethylmercury.

And finally, elemental mercury is when the mercury atoms are not locked up in a compound but are free. If you drank the contents of a mercury thermometer, you'd be ingesting elemental mercury. Not a smart thing to do, but elemental mercury is actually very poorly absorbed through the digestive tract. Elemental mercury is far more readily absorbed in the form of inhaled mercury vapor.

As with most substances, it's the form and dose that determine toxicity. Table salt is made up of a dangerous metal and a poisonous gas. Yet we eat it with almost all our foods - how dangerous!


YOU: Are you saying that the studies re: Mercury and Autism ignore all that?

ME: show me one legitimate study by reputable scientists that has been replicated.

NOTHING quoted on Mercola counts IMHO - he's a charlatan of the highest order.

YOU: Interesting response. Change the topic. That explains a lot.

ME: I'm asking for a legitimate study linking mercury and autism. How is that changing the topic?

I've yet to see a legitimate one referenced so I'd be very interested in seeing it.

YOU: Your response does not follow. It is merely a diversionary tactic.

***
A DIVERSIONARY TACTIC to ask YOU to provide a legitimate scientific study backing up your "CLAIM" that "a recently published study does indicate that there may have been an issue with vaccines and autism."

Uh.huh.

Just admit you don't have one and let's be done with it.

[HuckleB]

62. Thanks for showing us all how you reacted.

Me: Are you saying that the studies re: Mercury and Autism ignore all that?

You: show me one legitimate study by reputable scientists that has been replicated.

Instead of answering the question and following the conversation, you went elsewhere.

End of discussion. Your games are a waste of time.

[mzteris]

51. Also - did you understand the

difference in the types of mercury?

[HuckleB]

53. I do.

I'm not so sure that you actually do, however.

[mzteris]

55. Well it seemed pretty clear cut to me

that they are not the same and one doesn't need to stress it. So which is it of us that doesn't understand it?

I'll be more than happy to have you explain to me what you think it means. Just in case I've misread it.

[HuckleB]

56. It seemed?

LOL! In other words, you read blurb, bought into it, but can't actually explain it.

That's what I thought.

[mzteris]

58. I understood it perfectly well.

Use of the word "seem" is a colloquialism. It appears. It gave the impression. As I understood it. do these make you feel better?

Now, can YOU explain your problem with it? If you can, please do so. If not, then quit trying to pretend that YOU know what it says because obviously, you do not.


Edit typo.

[Wickerman]

3. Good to see MSM picking up on this

The hypothesis seems to make sense. Drs are doing so, too, long before kids get to school. Diagnosed early, a child with Autism has a better prognosis (when treated properly) than those diagnosed later.

[Warpy]

9. It's good to see the schools picking up on it too

because they're often the first ones to see that there's a problem, not just personality at work. Instead of being lumped in as retarded, the autistic kids who are high functioning enough to make it to school without red flags going up will get appropriate treatment in schools, too, plus referrals to follow up outside school.

It's so much better than mislabeling them and putting them into remedial classes where they clearly don't belong.

[Orrex]

7. This is significant for two additional reasons

1. The rise in actual cases is not real, but the rise in correctly diagnosed cases is real. That means that more people will receive better and more precisely targeted care, whereas in years past I suspect the trend was to throw everyone onto the "retarded" pile. This is excellent news!

2. In recognizing that the "rise" in cases is a result of more precise diagnosis, perhaps we can dispense with the bogus but well-loved "vaccines cause autism" hysteria that has ensnared far too many people here on DU as elsewhere. If the numbers in this study are borne out, then it's up to the anti-Thimerosal crowd to explain where all the additional, mercury-caused cases are supposed to be coming from if there's no actual increase in incidence.

Thanks for posting this story, Warpy!

:hi:

[HuckleB]

19. Researchers are never going to agree on this matter.

Which leaves it as perfect fodder for those who need to believe in bogeymen around every corner.

Of course, every study of any type on this issue must begin by noting that the definition was expanded, and therefore, at least some part of any supposed increase is likely due to that.

[Warpy]

32. Researchers agree. There is no link.

Conspiracists and antivaccination zealots will never agree and that is where all the controversy is coming from.

Solid research has been done and done again. There is no link, statistical or otherwise.

There are just a lot of parents who first noticed something wasn't quite right with Junior after he got a series of shots. Like other people who don't have all the facts, they put two and two together and got three.

When causality has been ruled out (and it has, repeatedly), there is only coincidence.

Besides, all those autistic kids were drinking MILK. You have to kow MILK is the culprit! Think of what they're feeding those cows! Spend time with a cow and spend time with an autistic kid and try to tell me there's no link!

[HuckleB]

34. It's true that no study could link it...

until the recent one in the Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons: http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/medicalnews.php?newsid=38784 And it's true that the hyperbole and belief without evidence has been overwhelming. Still, it is no longer true that no evidence of a possible link between vaccinations and autism exists, however arguable.

Other indications of possible, more general, issues with mercury exposure also exist...

Mercury levels and autism link:
http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/medicalnews.php?newsid=3790

The Age of Autism: Mercury in the air:
http://www.washtimes.com/upi-breaking/20050314-052518-7615r.htm

And then there are the studies that disagree with the recent study that began this thread regarding the criteria for diagnosis:
http://www.dds.ca.gov/autism/mindreport.cfm

No, the evidence isn't overwhelming. It does leave unanswered questions, however. As someone who has fought those spreading hyperbole without evidence on this issue for years, I also won't simply ignore evidence, however slim, that does actually show its face. That would be following suit with those who have offered the hypebole in question.

[NMMNG]

21. I wouldn't be at all surprised

In fact before all of the mercury theories were being bantered about, the original belief was that it was just refinement of diagnostic methods that caused the apparent increase in cases.

Much like the increase in victims willing to report molestation was responsible for the apparent epidemic of cases beginning in the 1980s.

[kiteinthewind]

27. Right! Postpartum depression has also increased significantly over the

past few years, not because it happens more, but because we are finally TALKING about it and it is being diagnosed instead of ignored.
:think:

[NMMNG]

37. No, that's just because women aren't taking enough vitamins and getting

enough exercise. :sarcasm: :rofl:

[kiteinthewind]

38. LOL!!

I actually had one of my clients call me, two months postpartum, in tears, because she had finally gotten enough courage to talk to her doctor about how she was feeling (depression, obsessive thoughts, etc.) and he told her to take more vitamin B. What a slap in the face. Needless to say I referred her to a PPD resource center that hooked her up with some REAL help. Geez! I had another doctor tell one of my clients, who told him that she was very depressed, having obsessive thoughts, etc, that he would give her an antidepressant, but she would have to quit breastfeeding. This woman was a very motivated, bf mom, so guess what she choose? She 'stuck it out for 9 more months, then finally called me, and I got her connected with a doc that had some knowledge about breastfeeding, and what antidepressants CAN be taken while bf. It is always amazing to me the lack of updated knowledge these docs have. IMHO, if you don't have time to keep up with the scientific studies RT the population you serve, then you have TOO MANY patients. :mad:

[NMMNG]

39. Idiot/uncaring doctors infuriate me

I'd just moved and was visiting my new doctor for the first time. I told her about my chronic headaches (which would later be diagnosed as intractable migraines). She didn't examine me or ask me any questions about them, but merely stated "lose weight, that will help". I never went back to her again. I was thrilled to receive a letter several months later telling me that she'd left the practice and I would have to select a new doctor.

[Celebration]

30. Post numbers

Hmmm, it says there are 38 replies to this thread but I am seeing no more than twenty nine. This is trying to determine where the others (if there are any) are. And to see what post number this says it is.

[Celebration]

31. Well the number of posts

Is being miscounted for some reason. Just checking.

[trotsky]

33. See post #4.

Deleted Sub-thread.

I've seen that before, when a subthread gets deleted, the post numbers are off. Sort of like those deleted posts are still there, just hidden.

[Sgent]

35. JPANDS is a shill

From Orac at Respectful Insolence:

I've written about JPANDS before, pointing out that its claim of peer review is a sham and that it has an explicitly antivaccine agenda, not to mention its far right wing politics. It only took sampling a few of its articles for me to conclude that JPANDS is useless as a source of valid scientific articles.

<snip>

One area in which JPANDS departs from the medical mainstream is in its explicit stand against mandatory vaccination and its call for a "moratorium" on vaccine "mandates." Not surprisingly, JPANDS has been receptive ground for antivaccination articles, including, but not limited to, the Geiers' publications linking autism with mercury in childhood vaccines. Going back to Medical Sentinel and proceeding to this very day, AAPS has consistently viewed mandatory vaccination as a "tool of the state" and a threat to physician autonomy, while minimizing the contribution of mass vaccination to the elimination of various infectious diseases.

<snip>

No wonder JPANDS is not indexed in MEDLINE, and no wonder so much quackery somehow manages to appear there first. If I were a quack, it's one of the first places I'd send my papers--as a "maverick," of course.

Respectful Insolence (long article, read)

[philb]

40. Autism is totally disabling and not confused with something else

Its unlikely many diagnosed with autism weren't autistic. Its not like a bad cold. Autism clinics typically do a lot of tests.
There are 10 fold more with a lesser form from a similar cause- toxic exposures to mercury,etc.
such as Asperger's, ADHD, etc. but these are clearly different from autistic.
But names are not what is important- the cause and cure is whats important to those affected. And there is a lot of documentation on that.

A National Academy of Sciences study found that 50% of pregnancies during the 1990s resulted in birth defects or developmental conditions, such as autism, learning disabilities, ADHD, mood disorders, eczema, cystic fibrosis, etc. asthma, other chronic conditions, etc. Studies have documented that most were caused by prenatal and neonatal toxic exposures.
http://www.flcv.com/tmlbn.html
http://www.flcv.com/kidshg.html
Millions of kids were affected.

Autism treatment clinics test and treat the kids, and the test results have confirmed that early toxic exposures cause inability of the kids to excrete toxic metals(metallothionein dysfunction) and accumulation and toxicity of toxic metals like mercury thimerosal from vaccines, etc.
But they also find that after metals detox the kids with autism improve significantly if treatment starts young and return to
main stream.
http://www.flcv.com/autismc.html (300 kids from an autism treatment clinic)

ps: the autism numbers increased in Florida(D.O.E.) from about 300 to over 4000, more than 10 fold, and a lot of those were in my area and I've been involved in some of their treatment. Likewise I've followed such in a lot of other areas with clinics that test and treat them. Someone from my Church worked in the FSU autism clinic. The huge increase was very obvious, and consistent with the huge increase in vaccinations with mercury thimerosal during that time period. The fact that mercury/metals detox consistently led to recovery makes it pretty clear what the cause was- along with the hundreds of thousands of tests by medical labs.

[mzteris]

46. Autism Gene......

Cracking the Autism Puzzle

Scientists home in on elusive autism genes and the environmental factors that may trigger them. Can a blood test to check for autism in newborns be far behind?

". . . What causes the disease, which now strikes 1 in every 166 children, and why does it affect four times as many boys as girls? Geneticists at the University of California at Los Angeles are closing in on the answers. This spring they announced that they had pinned down the likely location of an autism gene on chromosome 17. The evidence was found only in families with autistic males, indicating a hereditary basis for the disease's gender bias. Reporting the discovery in the American Journal of Human Genetics, the scientists will next try to find the actual gene among the 50 or so clustered nearby, a painstaking process that could take another year. "If we're lucky," says
co-author Rita Cantor, a professor of genetics at the university's David Geffen School of Medicine, "we'll be able to explain 10 percent of autism."

. . . Churning through reams of data, the study has uncovered its first pattern: that certain proteins, metabolites and immune-system components in blood samples from autistic children differ sharply from normal ones. Announced in May at the International Meeting for Autism Research in Boston, the discovery could lead to the first-ever blood test for autism in newborns, allowing
treatment to begin long before outward symptoms typically occur."


http://www.popsci.com/popsci/medicine/c8dedaef32d05010vgnvcm1000004eecbccdrcrd.h\tml

*******

Abnormal immune system 'may be indicator of autism'

http://www.lookingupautism.org/Articles/ImmuneIndicator.html

[Orrex]

47. One minor quibble

What causes the disease, which now strikes 1 in every 166 children,

I'd take issue with this sentence, because the "now" implies that the incidence of the condition is actually on the rise, rather than an increase in specificity of diagnosis.

[mzteris]

48. true -

I think it was just poor writing.

I don't think the "incidence" is on the rise - % of population wise. Just that

A) there are more people, period, so more autism;

B) there is better awareness, so more diagnoses;

If the % IS on the rise, a couple of things:

A) more children who probably shouldn't have made it through the pregnancy/delivery/early infanthood - are living. Are these children more "at risk"?

B) more toxins in the environment during pregnancy. (Neurologicial issues during pregnancy being more likely an issue than exposure after birth.)

[philb]

60. The percent increased 1000% in 10 years in many states

The Dept. of Education Definition in Florida(or other places did not change substantially)
I've been following the cases in Florida(and locally for the entire period)and talking to the people keeping the statistics, and interacting with some of the local cases. And a clinic here that treats a lot; a lot more lately than before.
And I know when a person has autism, though there are degrees, and conditions like
Asperger's are somewhat similar.


I hear that now that there is less mercury in vaccines, the incidence of autism is declining again.

[Orrex]

61. Hearsay, hearsay, hearsay

I hear that now that there is less mercury in vaccines, the incidence of autism is declining again.

Citation, please.

I hear that, now that the nation's skills at critical thinking are at a dangerously low ebb, worthless quack therapies and other pseudoscience are on the rise again.