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U.S. Health Spending Will Continue To Rise, Reaching 20% Of GDP By 2015, Report Says: http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/medicalnews.php?newsid=38255"U.S. health care spending will increase by an average of 7.2% annually until 2015, when spending will reach $4 trillion and account for 20% of the gross domestic product, according to a report released on Tuesday by the National Health Statistics Group at CMS, the Los Angeles Times reports (Girion/Alonso-Zaldivar, Los Angeles Times, 2/22). NHSG Deputy Director John Poisal said, "We can expect to have slight drops (in health care spending) in 2006 and 2007, followed by a slight bump up in 2008 and then a gradual growth after that" (Higgins, Washington Times, 2/22). The report, a Health Affairs Web exclusive, estimates that public and private health care spending will reach about $12,320 per capita in 2015, compared with $6,683 in 2005 (Pugh, Miami Herald, 2/22). In addition, the report estimates that health care spending increased by 7.4% in 2005, compared with 7.9% in 2004 (Corbett Dooren, Dow Jones, 2/22).
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Paul Ginsburg, president of the Center for Studying Health System Change, said, "When spending on health care goes up faster than earnings, lower-paid people are priced out of the health insurance market" (Miami Herald, 2/22). Ginsburg also said that the report was "optimistic" because the authors are "only following current laws on the books, which means they assume there will be continued physician payment cuts in Medicare," adding, "But people don't expect that to happen" (Washington Times, 2/22). Paul Fronstin, an economist at the Employee Benefit Research Institute, said, "It's hard to see where we will see sustained savings" in health care (Los Angeles Times, 2/22). Stephen Heffler, director of NHSG, said that the short-term estimates in the report are "relatively accurate," although the long-term estimates could change as a result of potential revisions to the law or the state of the economy. In addition, Heffler cited the Medicare prescription drug benefit as the "poster child of difficulty" for long-term estimates (Washington Times, 2/22).
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