Autism linked with rainfall in study

[Orrex]

http://www.comcast.net/articles/news-science/20081104/SCIENCE-US-AUTISM-RAIN/

Perhaps someone seeded the clouds with Thimerosal? Or maybe Big Pharma has been running its secret Cloud Generator again?


I have to disclaim that Comcast News posts anything and everything that it can get its hands on, so this article's appearance in a "news" outlet isn't in itself all that exciting.

[Muttocracy]

1. that came out last year or something - link being time indoor watching TV

total garbage.

[salvorhardin]

6. Yeah, I thought so too

What the article doesn't mention is that this study was done by a couple of economists at Cornell's business school! Just a minute and I'll dredge up the links...

DOES TELEVISION CAUSE AUTISM?
by
Michael Waldman
Johnson Graduate School of Management
Cornell University

Sean Nicholson
Policy Analysis and Management
Cornell University and NBER

and

Nodir Adilov
Department of Economics
Indiana University-Purdue University

http://www.johnson.cornell.edu/faculty/profiles/waldman/autpaper.html

Download here: http://www.johnson.cornell.edu/faculty/profiles/Waldman/AUTISM-WALDMAN-NICHOLSON-ADILOV.pdf or here: http://forum.johnson.cornell.edu/faculty/waldman/AUTISM-WALDMAN-NICHOLSON-ADILOV.pdf

There's a lot to consider with this paper. Oddly enough though, using rainfall as an instrumental variable is actually clever. From the PDF:

"Many studies that use an instrumental variables approach do so because testing the theory directly results in problems such as measurement error or omitted variables. In contrast, our main reason for using an instrumental variables approach is that there are not large enough studies that directly measure both young children's television watching and subsequent health problems that could be used to study whether early childhood television watching is a trigger for autism. But even so, an advantage of our study is that by using an instrumental variables approach we avoid a problem of reverse causality...."

There's a lot to be critical of with this paper, and it's really useful to discuss whether or not this makes for good science (I don't think it does), but I think we've really got to lay blame on the way the media has reported this.

[Muttocracy]

7. yep - went to hear them speak on it - inspired by one's son "cured" by cutting out TV... nt

[salvorhardin]

8. Really!?

I hadn't heard that part of the story. Maybe I'm going to have to look into this. The last time was back in October of 2006.

[Muttocracy]

9. yes - here's one article

Drives me insane as someone trained in science (repeated trials, statistics, detection, testable hypotheses). It's like how economists think global warming is just a theory because of the error ranges in models, when they have NO idea how to predict economic patterns.


http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/OnCall/Story?id=3008553&page=1

snip

Waldman became aware of the possible link when his son, 2½ at the time, was diagnosed with an autism spectrum disorder. His son's troubles began after the birth of the Waldmans' second child, a daughter. The summer after the baby girl was born, life became hectic at the Waldman home, and the boy began watching more TV. Within a few months, the boy's behavior deteriorated and soon he was diagnosed with autism.

snip

However, his immediate reaction was that the change in his son's behavior must have been triggered by something in his home environment.

"There was a huge change in his life when my daughter was born. He was 2½ when he was diagnosed, and usually the diagnosis comes much earlier. Within four months of my daughter being born, he was diagnosed with an autism spectrum disorder," Waldman said.

According to the National Institute of Mental Health, autism spectrum disorders can often be reliably detected by the age of 3 years, and in some cases as early as 18 months. But it is estimated that only 50 percent of children are diagnosed before kindergarten.

Considering the circumstances of his son's diagnosis, Waldman thought about what had changed since the birth of his daughter.

"I realized that he had been watching much more television during that time, because we were so busy with my daughter. So I turned off the TV," he said. "On a day to day basis, we didn't notice a change. But week to week and month to month, the change was dramatic. He was making rapid progress. Within six to eight months, all of his attention and language problems were gone."

[salvorhardin]

12. Oh wow. I had no idea.

Thanks for the info. Who knew? Abstaining from TV cures teh autism.

[FM Arouet666]

2. Pull back the spring-loaded bar, insert the cheese and wait......

:popcorn:

[Warpy]

3. You know this forum far too well

Time for a vacation?

[cosmik debris]

4. Are you saying Autism causes Rainfall?

That's some pretty wild speculation you've got going on there.

[semillama]

5. Au Contraire!

[Celebration]

10. Lack of Vitamin D, perhaps?

http://www.vitamindcouncil.org/health/autism/

[Sanity Claws]

11. That was my first thought too

When it's rainy, people are less likely to go outside and thus more likely to not get Vitamin D.

[mzmolly]

23. Very interesting.

Sounds like the new "it" vitamin? ;)

[phylny]

13. Heck, I was hoping it was a link to help me know what to do when the barometric pressure changes

before the rain and my clients with Autism have a difficult time.

[mzmolly]

14. Here's more. The connection may be mercury, so your "theory" may not be far from the

mark.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-kirby/rain-autism-and-mercury_b_140753.html

"The evidence to show that rainy weather leads to increased mercury deposition on the ground is ample. In fact, scientists use rainfall as a measure to estimate mercury deposition in the environment."

[Orrex]

15. Now, if only there were any evidence at all that mercury has anything to do with Autism

Then we might be onto something...

[mzmolly]

16. What do you suppose led to Hannah Pollings issues?

Formaldehyde?

[Orrex]

17. I suspect that her issues resulted from mitochondrial enzyme deficit

Why? What do you think caused them?

[mzmolly]

18. I'll let her Mother, (an RN who is married to a Neurologist) answer that ~

There are two theories about what happened to Hannah, said her mother, Terry Poling. The first is that she had an underlying mitochondrial disorder that vaccinations aggravated. The second is that vaccinations caused this disorder.

“The government chose to believe the first theory,” Ms. Poling said, but added, “We don’t know that she had an underlying disorder.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/08/us/08vaccine.html?_r=1&st=cse&sq=hannah+polling+vaccine&scp=1&oref=slogin

Either way, vaccination was a catalyst in Hannah Polling's autism.

[Orrex]

19. 'Either way, vaccination was a catalyst in Hannah Polling's autism.'

Perhaps you or the RN who is married to a neurologist can explain just how these vaccinations aggravated the mitochondrial disorder or "caused this disorder."

“We don’t know that she had an underlying disorder.”

That's nice, but irrelevant. It's a post hoc claim made in March 2008 in an effort to discredit a diagnosis made in 2001. It's a statement of belief; let her provide data from 2001 or before showing that the diagnosed mitochondrial disorder was in fact not present.

Additionally, that NY Times article is faulty for several reasons. First, it absurdly refers to anti-vaxers as "skeptics," when in fact they are contrarians. Second, it incorrectly claims that Hannah was diagnosed with autism in 2001. In fact, she was diagnosed with "regressive encephalopathy with features consistent with an autistic spectrum disorder, following normal development." That quote is from within Kirby's own post on Huffpost. I'll give you the link if you don't already have it.

In short, Hannah had a very wide range of severe symptoms, some of which are consistent with some aspects of autism spectrum disorder, but none of which can be said to have been specifically caused by vaccinations.

Here's the relevant bit from the decision:

In sum, DVIC has concluded that the facts of this case meet the statutory criteria for demonstrating that the vaccinations CHILD received on July 19, 2000, significantly aggravated an underlying mitochondrial disorder, which predisposed her to deficits in cellular energy metabolism, and manifested as a regressive encephalopathy with features of autism spectrum disorder. Therefore, respondent recommends that compensation be awarded to petitioners in accordance with 42 U.S.C. § 300aa-11(c)(1)(C)(ii).

That is, she was not diagnosed with autism. Instead, she was diagnosed with an underlying mitochondrial disorder (the fact that Ms. Poling RN claims not to know this is, again, not relevant), and this disorder manifested "with features of autism spectrum disorder." Compensation was not awarded because the vaccines cause the mitochondrial disorder or because the vaccines caused autism (with which, again, she was not diagnosed); instead, it was determined that the vaccines may have aggravated the existing mitochondrial disorder, and therefore compensation was appropriate.

Before anyone howls that "features of autism spectrum disorder" are the same as autism, let me tell you that I once had a high fever, severe headache, and profound neck pain. These symptoms are consistent with features of meningitis, but that doesn't mean that that's what I had; I had a bad cold, and I'd earlier taken a bad fall during high jump practice in Track & Field.

Hannah Poling has become the martyred darling of the "vaccines cause autism" crowd, even though her case has nothing to do with autism. Dr. Gerberding has even identified this case as effectively unique and no precedent for other claims of vaccine-induced autism.

In addition, if it is your claim, as your earlier subject line implies, that Hannah developed autism as a result of mercury poisoning, please provide evidence in support of this claim, or else retract it.

[mzmolly]

20. Polling's Dad the neurologist, has said Hannah Polling WAS diagnosed with Autism.

However, assuming your preferred theory is correct, how do you suggest one know that an underlying mitochondrial disorder is present sans symptoms and/or routine screening tests? Hannah Polling did not present with "features of autism" until she was vaccinated.

Here is the wording from the ruling by the way:

...the government concluded that vaccines aggravated a rare underlying metabolic condition that resulted in a brain disorder "with features of autism spectrum disorder.”

How many other children do you suppose might have an underlying metabolic disorder that is "aggravated by vaccination" leading to "a brain disorder" with "features of autism spectrum disorder"?

I don't pretend to know what vaccine component led to the "aggravated presentation of autistic symptomatology" but I (like the scientists involved in the Polling ruling) am satisfied that vaccines, again, were a catalyst for her experiencing the symptoms of autism, which by the way is what autism is, a set of symptoms.

[Orrex]

21. I'll make it simple for you

Tell me what it would take, hypothetically, to convince you that vaccines do not cause autism. We can go around and around ad infintum, but without knowing exactly what would allay your suspicions, there's really no point.

Additionally, I'm pretty sure that "Polling" should only have one "L."

In the meantime...

experiencing the symptoms of autism, which by the way is what autism is, a set of symptoms.

That is absolutely incorrect, and your assertion of it shows that you don't understand the subject. You are failing to distinguish a condition from its symptoms, even though the two are not the same thing. I mentioned my symptoms of menigitis, which I really did exhibit even though I didn't have menigitis. Likewise, a person can exhibit the symptoms of depression without actually suffering from the neurological condition known as Depression.

Do you understand the distinction? If not, let me know, and I'll elaborate.

How many other children do you suppose might have an underlying metabolic disorder that is "aggravated by vaccination" leading to "a brain disorder" with "features of autism spectrum disorder"?

As I mentioned, Dr. Gerberding has stated that Poling's case is so unusual that it shouldn't be seen as a precedent for other cases. So to answer your question, I would guess that the number of children with an underlying metabolic disorder that is "aggravated by vaccination" leading to "a brain disorder" with "features of autism spectrum disorder" is pretty darn small.

Additionally, do you understand that a civil legal ruling is not a scientific finding? Statuatory criteria requiring a preponderance of evidence are nowhere near as strict as scientific evidenciary demands. The fact that the panel determined liability actually says nothing at all about the underlying issue of whether or not vaccines cause autism.

Incidentally, they don't.


And you didn't answer my question as to whether or not you believe that mercury poisoning caused Hannah's autism-like symptoms, even though your earlier post suggested that this was the case. Can you clarify?

[mzmolly]

22. I'll make it even simpler for you:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xo0TJ-55kMg

And you didn't answer my question as to whether or not you believe that mercury poisoning caused Hannah's autism like symptoms, even though your earlier post suggested that this was the case. Can you clarify?

I don't know that I personally conclude "mercury poisoning" was the aggravating factor in the Poling case, it could have been an attenuated virus for all we know? It might have been a combination of factors? However, I don't deny the possibility that a known neurotoxin such as mercury is a possible culprit, especially given the new information on a potential rain connection.

That is absolutely incorrect, and your assertion of it shows that you don't understand the subject. You are failing to distinguish a condition from its symptoms, even though the two are not the same thing. I mentioned my symptoms of menigitis, which I really did exhibit even though I didn't have menigitis. Likewise, a person can exhibit the symptoms of depression without actually suffering from the neurological condition known as Depression.

Autism is a diagnosis, as is depression, both diagnoses are based upon a set of symptoms. After being vaccinated Hannah Poling developed symptoms of Autism, which I expect is what led to her diagnosis?

"I wouldn't have believed it until it happened to me" ~ Dr. Jon Poling

Edited for grammar.

[Orrex]

24. Look at it like this

As a rule, I don't click on blind YouTube links. What is that video, and how long is it?

<"div class="excerpt">Autism is a diagnosis, as is depression, both diagnoses are based upon a set of symptoms. After being vaccinated Hannah Poling developed symptoms of Autism, which I expect is what led to her diagnosis?

[mzmolly]

25. Mumbo jumbo aside, Poling was diagnosed with Autism and her condition is a result of vaccination.

As to the video, it's an interview on CNN (Dr. Gupta interviews Dr. Poling) who addresses many of the talking points you put forward.

[Orrex]

26. So, for the record, anything you can't answer (or choose not to understand) is mumbo jumbo

If you think that I'm just reciting "talking points," then you really don't understand the topic at all.

And CNN is to medical reporting like Hollywood Insider is to hard-hitting political journalism. Sorry--you'll need to come up with something better than a puff-piece cranked out by the corporate media. I mean, CNN is heavily sponsored by pharmaceutical companies, so wouldn't that taint their objectivity in your view?

You can reply or not, as you wish. Since you haven't addressed anything I've said, and you've contradicted yourself outright at least once, I'm through discussing this with you.

[mzmolly]

27. No, mumbo jumbo is mumbo jumbo. And, I understand spin perfectly.

Cheers. :hi:

[Feron]

28. It's time to ban...

Dihydrogen Monoxide. Kirby and the mercury pushers as usual are ignoring the real culprit.

Dihydrogen Monoxide has been found in all autistic individuals. The fact that the FDA allows this poison into our food supply is an outrage.

[HysteryDiagnosis]

29. Rain

http://www.bayjournal.com/article.cfm?article=1659


High levels of mercury showing up in Midwestern cities’ rain • NY attorney general threatens to sue power plants over acid rain and more...


Washington/Nation Watch / By Associated Press

High levels of mercury showing up in Midwestern cities' rain

Rain contaminated with mercury is another source of the pollution plaguing Midwest lakes and rivers, according to a report released by environmental groups.

Mercury is showing up in Chicago rainfall at levels 42 times greater than federal standards consider safe, according to Andrew Buchsbaum of the National Wildlife Federation. Mercury levels in rain are even higher in Detroit and Duluth, MN, he said.

The report was released in September by groups including the Environmental Law and Policy Center and the Sierra Club. The data were collected from government and university studies with the help of the EPA, Buchsbaum said.

Most of the mercury in rain is coming from coal-fired electric plants and municipal and medical waste incinerators, he said.