http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=0d4fd538-5834-4c18-98c8-6e58da254976California Prop 8 Remains a Fierce Fight That Could Be Decided Either Way By Handful of Votes: In a vote today, 10/17/08, on California's Proposition 8 Ballot Initiative, which would change California's constitution to eliminate the right of same-sex couples to marry, approximately half the state supports the measure, half the state opposes the measure, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-TV San Diego, and KFSN-TV Fresno.
The exact findings are: 'Yes' (to change the law) 48%, 'No' (to leave the law alone) 45%. But: polling on ballot measures in general is an inexact science, and polling on homosexuality in general is a tricky business, so SurveyUSA urges all who examine these results to not put too fine a point on the 3 points that separate "Yes" and "No" today. In 3 SurveyUSA tracking polls over the past month, Proposition 8 has been fiercely fought, and effectively even, all 3 times. "No" nominally led by 5 points on 09/25/08. "Yes" nominally led by 5 points on 10/06/08. The movement from 10/06/08 to today is not necessarily statistically significant.
What remains clear today: Those in the Inland Empire and the Central Valley continue to want the law changed. Those in the Bay Area continue to want the law left alone. Those in greater LA remain split.
Men, seniors, gun owners, the less well educated and the more religious, support 8. Women, Democrats, liberals and Pro-Choice voters oppose. Young voters, upper-income voters, white voters, moderates and Independents split. There is no meaningful difference between how those who have already voted, and those who promise SurveyUSA they will, see the measure.
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EDIT to add age break - thats what threw it last time - it was 54% of young voters FOR 8 - not any more! No is winning in every category except 65+ time to call your grandparents and parents!
18-34 Yes 44% No 46%
35-49 Yes 47% No 46%
50-64 Yes 46% No 50%
65+ Yes 57% No 35%