How will Pedro Martinez fare this year?

[WilliamPitt]

I think Petey is going to surprise a lot of people this year if he stays healthy.

A lot of folks look to his last few years with the Red Sox as evidence that he is on the downward slide. I think this is deceptive. One of the main reasons Pedro was so hittable during the regular season was because the AL teams he was pitching against had seen his stuff ten thousand times in the last few years. No surprises, they could see the changeup coming. The Yankees have played the Sox 19 times each season for the last few seasons. They know Pedro like a well-read book.

Now, however, Pedro is in the NL where there are fewer power hitters, and where teams have not seen any of his stuff. Look at his performance during the World Series; he was lights-out because those NL batters did not know what was coming.

Pedro in the NL = all the old tricks become new tricks. I think he is going to shine.

[Darkhawk32]

1. He will be great! But then, I'm biased. n/t

[FlyByNight]

2. Not having to face a DH will help...

but with him actually doing some "hitting", I wonder if he'll be as aggressive with plate ownership as he was in the AL.

[hijinx87]

3. the sabremetricians have weighed in . . . .

although I think they've lost their mind.

2005 PECOTA PROJECTIONS

                                                        2004
                   ERA      IP    SO   BB   HR   VORP   VORP
Pedro Martinez    2.93   194.2   205   55   19   53.3   51.2
Tom Glavine       4.62   163.1    84   59   20   12.2   42.0
Kris Benson       4.50   152.1   102   51   18   13.6   15.8
Victor Zambrano   4.84   100.2    83   63   11    4.7    0.0
Steve Trachsel    4.74   152.0    85   58   20    9.7   25.8
------------------------------------------------------------
Scott Kazmir      4.42    98.0    85   53   13   15.5    2.1

http://sabermets.weblogs.us/archives/2005_02.html

edit to correct horrendous formatting problems

[Emboldened Chimp]

4. He might pitch well, but he probably won't get run support...

His ERA will be typically low, but his win-loss record will probably break even.

[joeybee12]

5. I'm going to disagree--average--right around .500--Pedro was on the

downslide for the past two years. Besides, even if I'm wrong, and he does ok, he's still gonna be a disappointment for the Mets--they expect to build their team aorund him--ain't gonna happen.

[nickgutierrez]

6. I think he'll be between categories 1 and 2

He'll be pretty good. I could see him having an ERA between 3.00 and 3.50, depending on the quality of the Mets defense. Not his former Cy Young self, but no talentless hack, either.

[Lexingtonian]

7. I'm less optimistic

I dunno whether he still has real fight left in him. Sure, he'll beat up weak teams without a problem, but he doesn't do so well against ones that bat well even when he tries. And that shoulder of his just is gimpy, gives out earlier in August every year.

He's with the Mets because they needed some showboating and press and nonwhite fan appeal. And a bunch of impressive-looking innings.

I think he's due for that shoulder catching up on him. I'll guess low inning counts (4ish) to spare the shoulder, ERA around 3.0-3.2 because bad teams won't figure him out for a while, and lots of no decisions because of the hitting and the low innings. I can see him starting 7-5, 5 ND under the circumstances.

As for motivation, he likes New York and attention and spending money. He'd be a lot more fun if he had a strong sense of irony and selfdeprecation, though.

[Frumious B]

8. Decent enough...

I think Pedro's days of being a dominating pitcher who strikes fear into opposing lineups are fading fast. Of couse, he could reinvent himself the way a lot of power pitchers do later in their careers if they lose velocity. You can be a great pitcher with a 90 mph fastball as long as it isn't straight, you have decent control and you use it to set up the offspeed stuff. You just get hit harder when you make a mistake in the strike zone. Heck, I think the hardest Greg Maddux ever threw his fastball during his entire tenure with the Braves was 90mph with the "fast" radar gun. Most of the time his heat was mid to upper 80s.

I expect great things from the tandem of Smoltz and Hudson, however.

[Jack Rabbit]

9. I wonder if he will help his own cause with the occasional sacrifice?

They play real baseball in the National League, you know.

[MikeG]

10. He will get beaned. Maybe by a Pirate.

[THUNDER HANDS]

11. if he stays healthy all year - 20 wins

The Mets biggest problem is that their cleanup hitter will only start about 100 games this year. The inherant problem with any team whose catcher is their best power hitter.

If Beltran, Floyd, Wright and Cameron can carry their loads, and Reyes and Matsui can get on base and make things happen, the Mets should score enough runs to get Martinez 18-22 wins this year.

If that happens, he's a practical shoo-in for Cy Young Award.