BOXING: May 15 & 16

[H2O Man]

FRIDAY - at Belfast, Ireland - 12 rounds, heavyweights: Martin Rogan (12-0, 6 KOs) vs. Sam Sexton (11-1, 4 KOs);

FRIDAY - at Magdeburg, Germany - 12 rounds, heavyweights: Frans Botha (46-4-2, 28 KOs) vs. Timo Hoffman (38-6-1, 22 KOs);

FRIDAY - at Atlantic City (ESPN2) - 10 rounds, heavyweights: Kevin Johnson (21-0-1, 8 KOs) vs. Devin Vargas (17-0, 7 KOs).

SATURDAY - at Raleigh, North Carolina - 10 rounds, heavyweights: Donnell Holmes (30-0-2, 26 KOs) vs. Ryan Thompson (9-7, 6 KOs);

SATURDAY - at Oakland, California (Showtime) - 12 rounds, super middleweights: Andre Ward (18-0, 12 KOs) vs. Edison Miranda (32-3, 28 KOs); 8 rounds, lightweights: John Molina (16-0, 12 KOs) vs. Frankie Archuleta (25-6-1, 14 KOs).

There will be some interesting fights this weekend. The schedule allows us to look at a few reoccurring themes: first, the search for good heavyweights vs the attempt to promote an inferior product; second, why ESPN is so good for the sport; and, third, why the super middleweight division may be one of the most important in the next few years.

Let’s start with the Belfast fight. Martin Rogan is 38 years old, stands 6’3", and usually weighs just under 230 lbs when he enters the ring. In December, he decisioned Audley Harrison, who was making a serious attempt at a come-back. In February, he TKOed Matt Skelton in 11 rounds. These wins came after three good wins, two over previously undefeated young fighters.

Sam Saxton is 24, stands 6’2", and enters the ring at about 240 lbs. He was TKOed in June of 2008, in his only loss. He bounced back with a win over an undefeated young contender. The Rogan vs Saxton fight is to determine the best active heavyweight in the United Kingdom. It’s too bad that more European heavyweight fights aren’t televised in the US.

I’ve frequently noted that Germany is a nucleus of European boxing, especially for the heavyweight division. There are, of course, exceptions to every rule. The fact that Frans Botha is headlining the German card on Friday, and is likely favored to win, speaks for itself. I suspect that the promoters are putting this fight on, in order to justify having someone knock Botha out later this year. Almost everything wrong with the heavyweight division is illustrated by this fight.

The ESPN FNF features an interesting match between two good, third-tier heavyweight contenders. Devin Vargas is 27, stands 6’3", and fights at around 230 lbs. This will be an important fight for him, as since turning professional in 2004, he has faced "soft" opposition. Some of his wins include opponents with records such as 17-14; 13-16; 3-14; and 6-10. He also tends to fight at or near his home. It’s time to step out of the comfort zone, if he intends to be taken seriously.

Kevin Johnson is 29, 6’3", and weighs about 240 lbs. He has faced some decent journeymen, and more recently, has victories over fring contenders Terry Smith and Bruce Seldon. Although neither Johnson or Vargas are noted for their power, it should be a good fight. And a good showing on ESPN will lead to bigger fights.

On Saturday, in North Carolina, hometown favorite Donnell Holmes will extend his undefeated record by decisioning trial-horse Ryan Thompson. Holmes, 36, and 230 lbs, does not appear to be serious about fighting anyone other than a soft opponent, usually in that comfort zone of the Carolinas. He has 32 fights, none against anyone beyond the club-fight circuit.

Thomas, 38, has fought in the 220-range early in his career. He now comes in at over 260 lbs. In one of his fights that he didn’t lose, it was because the ring collapsed in the first round, resulting in a "no contest." He travels around, generally losing to hometown favorites. He has fought one talented opponent, Kevin Burnett, but generally is brought in to lose to fighters who aren’t able to compete with serious opponents.

The most important fight of the weekend features the 2004 light heavyweight Olympic Champion, Andre Ward, taking a large step up, when he meets dangerous slugger Edison Miranda on Showtime. Although Miranda has three loses on his record, it is widely recognized that he was robbed in his first loss to Arthur Abraham; Abraham beat him convincingly in their return match, and Kelly Pavlik devasted him. But Miranda has extreme power, as shown when he KOed David Banks in 3 last year, knocking him out of the ring. He also has a history of defeating unbeaten young lions looking to step up, as Allen Green found out. Miranda has won two knockouts in a row, since moving up in weight.

Ward holds regional super middleweight titles, and has won 7 of his last 8 fights by knockout. He is a classic boxer, with the addition of good punching power. Although some people have believed his career has been plotted out too carefully, this will be a dangerous fight for him. I’ve been impressed with Ward’s crisp, accurate punching, as well as his defensive skills. But Miranda will test them with his awkward style. Miranda has also displayed a willingness to foul an opponent, and his tactics could take Ward out of his game plan.

I tend to favor Ward, but Miranda will be very dangerous. Both men have the ability to take the other out, and both maintain that ability throughout a long fight. The winner will certainly be in line for a fight against one of the top in the division.

Enjoy the fights.

[Dramarama]

1. Andre Ward!

Thanks for the information

[H2O Man]

2. Ward

strikes me as one of the most intelligent fighters in the ring. He doesn't waste energy, and he understands the advantages found in "hit, but don't get hit." He also seems like a very decent man outside of the ring. He's a plus for boxing.

Enjoy the fight!

[H2O Man]

3. ESPN FNFs

start at 9 pm est.