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SATURDAY - at Atlantic City (HBO PPV) - 12 rounds, light heavyweights: Kelly Pavlik (34-0 30 KOs) vs. Bernard Hopkins (48-5-1, 32 KOs); 12 rounds, featherweights: Steven Luevano (35-1-1, 15 KOs) vs. Billy Dib (21-0, 11 KOs); 12 rounds, middleweights: Marco Antonio Rubio (42-4-1, 37 KOs) vs. Enrique Ornelas (28-4, 18 KOs); 10 rounds, light middleweights: Yuri Foreman (25-0, 8 KOs) vs. Vinroy Barrett (22-6, 11 KOs).
This weeks’ "Big Fight" features Youngstown, Ohio’s Kelly Pavlik versus Philadelphia legend Bernard Hopkins. There are three distinct ideas of how the fight will likely play out: (1) with the younger Pavlik easily out-gunning his 43-year old foe, possibly stopping him in the mis- to late rounds; (2) Bernard making it a boring, slow-paced 12 round fight, and then complaining for the fourth time in his last six fights that he was "robbed"; and (3) that this has the potential to be an exciting, bruising fight that will be won by the man with the stronger will.
Any of these three outcomes is possible. My younger son, who resembles Pavlik both inside and outside the ring, thinks that Hopkins is too old to keep pace with Pavlik. He points out that Hopkins has only scored one knockout since his impressive 2001 victory over Felix "Tito" Trinidad, over a smaller Oscar de la Hoya; that Jermain Taylor stunned him in each of their fights; and that Freddie Roach refused to train Bernard for this fight, because he believes Hopkins is showing the early signs of brain damage after fighting for too long.
Roach is shown on the HBO "Countdown to Pavlik-Hopkins" talking about Bernard as a friend. He says that after four rounds ended in Hopkin’s last fight, against Joe Calzaghe, Hopkins walked to the wrong corner. Bernard explains this away by saying it happened during the excitement of a hotly contested war. Yet boxing fans know there was virtually no excitement after the first round of that fight.
A close friend, who has helped as an assistant trainer for local fighters, thinks that it is most likely that Hopkins will be able to dictate the pace, making it a slow fight with only a few flurries, and with a lot of clinching and Bernard using his elbows, shoulders, and head inside. He also thinks that Bernard will use a body attack to try to slow Pavlik down.
I think there is a good chance that the third outcome is more likely. Hopkins respects Pavlik, and is preparing to go to war. In his two fights before Calzaghe, Bernard fought hard against two tough opponents, Antonio Tarver and Winky Wright.
He has studied Pavlik closely, and knows that his strength is to move forward, throwing straight left-right combinations, and wearing most of his opponents down and taking them out between six and nine rounds.
A few of the "experts" on HBO noted that it will be difficult for Pavlik to adjust to fighting at the higher weight. One suspects they are not familiar with his history: in 19 of his earlier fights, Kelly Pavlik fought at the higher weight. He has had to weaken himself to make the middleweight limit in recent fights. As a growing young man, it will not be a negative factor in his fight against Hopkins.
Also, some question if Pavlik can adjust his style, should Hopkins is able to frustrate his forward movement. Again, if one is familiar with Pavlik, that is not a serious question. Pavlik can be compared, in that sense, to Tommy Hearns. As an amateur, Tommy won 144 fights, though only 12 by knockout. It wasn’t until he had been a professional for over a year that he really learned to sit down on his punches and flatten opponents.
Pavlik was also an outstanding amateur, although he turned professional relatively young. He won 89 amateur fights, including titles in three national tournaments in the welterweight division. He was, at the time, a boxer; it was only as a professional that he learned to sit down on his punches, and flatten his opponents.
I think Hopkins will start quick, and attempt to neutralize Pavlik’s big punches in the same manner he did against Tito – don’t let him land the jab cleanly, so that he can’t correctly measure the distance to land the second punch. Unlike Tito, Pavlik knows how to double up on the jab. Also, Tito was most dangerous following with a hook, while Pavlik’s big punch is the right; it’s easier to throw that one-two, than to throw a hook off a jab.
Bernard has good balance, allowing him to move in and out, bob up and down, and use lateral movement. He needs to move to his right, rather than his left, to keep Pavlik from getting set. And, on the inside, he needs to land his left hook to the body. Sounds almost easy, right? Of course not, but Hopkins knows this is the most dangerous fight of his career. He isn’t going in looking for an easy fight.
Pavlik needs to use his size, youth, and strength to wear Hopkins down. This includes being able to land his jab. To do that, he is going to need to feint, and to not fall for B-Hop’s feints. He needs to double his jab, and shoot it for where Hopkins’ chest meets his neck. Don’t bother going for his head early: just have that jab land, creating a problem for Hopkins’ balance. Also, Kelly has said that he expects Bernard to break every rule, and to foul him at every opportunity. He’s got that right. He said he has a few surprises for Bernard in that area.
He needs to be careful, not to let Bernard get him to lose his head, and get off-track. We all remember Winky Wright, who foolishly believed he could out-butt Bernard. The only guy who could have done that was Marvin Haglar. You don’t butt heads with a billy goat. Instead, I’d have him "gentle" push Bernard, as soon as B-Hop begins to close the distance between them. Not just straight back, either, but sometime to the left, sometime to the right, and sometimes pull him forward. Also, push him downward. Then land the one-two.
I fought a few billie goats. You have to make them pay a price. The referee is sure to warn you, but you have to tell him that if he isn’t going to do something about the butting, you sure as hell will.
I think this will be a tough fight. Pavlik has a stronger offense, and Hopkins has a better defense. But unless Hopkins is more shot than he has appeared lately, this is going to be a fight where each man gets hurt. The one who is able to fight through that pain, and impose his will upon the other man, will win. I favor Pavlik, but as always, anything can happen inside that ring.
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