Blue Grass Stakes/Arkansas Derby Thread

[Bryan Sacks]

All I've been hearing for weeks now is how strong the Blue Grass was going to be. Now, according to a DRF article today, it's down to five horses: Teufelsberg, Zanjero, Dominican, Street Sense and Great Hunter. Some others could declare in the next few days, though.

Assume it's just those five for the moment. Two questions:

1. How's the race unfold? Teufelsberg on an easy lead, as in the Southwest Stakes where he went gate-to-wire? Does anyone press? I don't think he can outfinish the big horses in the Blue Grass, but he's a tough customer on an uncontested lead. I saw the G2 race at Saratoga this summer where he almost beat Scat Daddy while he was still a maiden. And in the Southwest, he won relatively easily. He can certainly be second at a big price if they go slow.

2. What kind of price will I get on Great Hunter? Is he going to be 6-5, or more like 5-2? If I knew O'Neill was going to empty the tank on him in the race, anything above 8-5 would be stealing, IMHO.

In the Arkansas Derby, whay do people think about Deadly Dreamer? I haven't seen him run. Can he hang with Curlin?

[Awsi Dooger]

1. No one is going to be 6/5 in the same race as Street Sense

I can't see that. Not unless Street Sense is major odds-on and the others are lugs dismissed at double digits.

When they put up matchup wagering, the only logical matchup is Street Sense vs. Great Hunter. I can almost guarantee Great Hunter will be a major underdog in that matchup, certainly higher than +120, which is the equivalent of 6/5. Perhaps +160 which would be 8/5. And that's just to beat Street Sense. You don't have to worry about an unlikely result in which Great Hunter defeats Street Sense but someone else steals the race.

Not that I'll be wagering on this weekend's races. I heading to Hawaii on Saturday for two weeks, finally completing all 50 states.:woohoo:

[Justpat]

6. What, no simulcasting in Hawaii? n/t

[trumad]

10. Street by 4

bank it.

[aaronbees]

2. Curlin's a good horse

But I'm not sure I buy him yet. Liked his Rebel win, though, and I don't think he's going to be facing much tougher in the Arkansas Derby, unfortunately - have yet to do research on Deadly Dealer. Arkansas Derby draw is tomorrow 'round 11:15 a.m.

I'm bad at odds guessing but I think you may get 3-1 or 5-2 on Great Hunter with Street Sense slightly lower. Watch out for Zanjero - he might get in the mix with a stretch out. You may be right about Teuflesberg on the lead, not sure I can see anyone going with him actually. Maybe Street Sense to press a bit, at least keep him somewhat close. Is Keeneland favoring closers since the meet began? Something to consider. I still see it as a super race, if only to establish some differences between the Hunter and Street.

[two gun sid]

3. Blue Grass Draw: Four on the Floor for Street Sense

From The Bloodhorse:
Street Sense, last year’s 2-year-old champion and early favorite for next month’s Run for the Roses, drew post 4 and will face six other 3-year-olds Saturday in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) at Keeneland.

Keeneland’s handicapper Mike Battaglia set the morning line and made James Tafel’s homebred son of Street Cry the 4-5 favorite. Second choice is J. Paul Reddam’s Great Hunter, who will break from post 7.

The Blue Grass, with an approximate post of 5:46 p.m., will be shown live on ESPN that has devoted an hour, 5-6 p.m. EDT to the race.

“(Trainer Carl) Nafzger told me before the draw ‘I always know I have a good horse when you don’t pick me,’” joked Battaglia, however the oddsmaker had to make Street Sense the favorite off last year’s form and his nose victory over Any Given Saturday in the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. III) March 17.

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=38379

I'm lookin' for an upset here. I'm betting a Great Hunter/Zanjero exacta and Great Hunter/Zanjero/Teuflesberg Tri. We'll see if Borel can give Street Sense his typical rail skimming trip and upset my day. I'm betting he can't.

[two gun sid]

4. Arkansas Derby draw offers lesson for Curlin

From DRF:
Curlin will break from post 2 in a field of 10 on Saturday at Oaklawn Park in the Grade 2, $1 million Arkansas Derby, which drew a surprise entrant in first-time starter Olympic Chief. The draw for the 1 1/8-mile race was held Wednesday.

Curlin will start as the favorite following his 5 1/4-length win in the Grade 3, $300,000 Rebel here March 17. The 1 1/16-mile race was his second start, and he had a stalking trip outside of horses when he broke from post 8. In his only other start, Curlin broke from post 2 and led throughout to win a seven-furlong maiden race at Gulfstream Park.

Breaking from the inside in a big field Saturday should give the lightly raced Curlin an education, said his trainer, Steve Asmussen.

"It's time for him to go through this," he said.

http://www.drf.com/news/article/83918.html

[aaronbees]

7. If I get to the track for this...

I'm tempted to put $5 to show on Olympic Chief just for the hell of it. He'll be astronomical odds and frankly I can't warm up to anyone in here except the lightly raced Curlin and Deadly Dealer.

[two gun sid]

9. Good luck, hope you make it to the races....

I will be very busy tomorrow at the barn and moving a pregnant mare to the farm we foal our horses.

[Bryan Sacks]

5. Great Hunter 9-5 morning line. Seems right.

And how about the Davidsons, entering a first-time starter in the Arkansas Derby. Wow.

[two gun sid]

8. Get your copy of "The Special at Keeneland"

http://www.st-publishing.com/special/post/pdffiles/041307.pdf

[Bryan Sacks]

11. Weather pretty bad in Lexington

46 degrees, 15-25 MPH winds forecast. Two races already taken off the "soft" turf, but the big turf race is still on.

Hot Springs weather sounds better. Mid-50's, showers as opposed to rain.

Anybody local to either place with a non-internet weather report?

Thx.

[aaronbees]

12. I'm about to head to Hot Springs ....

I'm a little less than two hours away (southwest) from there and it's 50 degrees, light breeze, just small drizzle here - looks like the weather will clear, though.

Street Sense/Great Hunter/Zanjero is the definite tri pick for me at the Blue Grass, and I'm leaning toward a Curlin/Deadly Dealer/Delightful Kiss tri in the Arkansas Derby.

** Edited to add: not going to Hot Springs, sticking in town here to watch the race. Damn friends and their personal drama. Anyways, happy viewing and betting to all. **

[Bryan Sacks]

13. Darn. For You Reppo scratches out of AK Derby n/t

[Justpat]

14. Dominican by a short head in the Blue Grass.

Street Sense second. I don't think Nafzger will be tearing his
hair out. He was third with Unbridled in the Blue Grass the
year he won the Derby. And I don't think Street Sense excels on
the polytrack.

Good race by Dominican though.

[Bryan Sacks]

15. No excuse for Great Hunter. Wasn't good enough. n/t

[two gun sid]

16. Hard Spun Derby Bound After Sharp Breeze

From The Bloodhorse:
Fox Hill Farm’s Hard Spun stamped his ticket to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I) Thursday by breezing five furlongs in a bullet 1:00 1/5 at Churchill Downs and showing trainer Larry Jones that he handles the surface.

Jones was concerned that Hard Spun might not take to the Churchill surface after the colt showed a dislike for the surface at Oaklawn Park when finishing fourth as the beaten favorite in the Southwest Stakes.

“The work was as perfect as we could have hoped for,” Jones said. “As of right now, we are Derby bound. He handled the track very well, and Larry (jockey Melancon) came back and said he didn’t think he worked anywhere near as fast as he did, because he was doing everything so easily. In fact, he was a little concerned he had gone too slow. By not knowing the horse, and not knowing what kind of work horse he was, he said he never really picked the bit up a lot. But when he came back and saw how fast he had worked he was really impressed.

“The main thing is, he came back to the barn and recouped very fast. Within 10 minutes, his breathing was normal and he drank maybe a gallon of water at the most. It was a wonderful work and a wonderful way to come back from it.”

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=38392

Curlin wins the Arkansas Derby today. Tough horse, Curlin. I don't know where to rank him among the Derby contenders.

[two gun sid]

17. 'New' Stormello Changes Style for Kentucky Derby

From The Bloodhorse:
If you’ve forgotten about Stormello after his fourth-place finish in the Florida Derby (gr. I), be prepared to see a new version of the old speed horse when the colt breaks from the gate in the May 5 Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I).

Trainer and co-owner Bill Currin decided to change the colt’s style completely, and informed the head clocker at Hollywood Park to time every split for as far as the horse goes. Although they were unable to get them all, four other clockers, according to Currin, timed him all the way.

The end result was a five-furlong breeze in 1:01 3/5, with splits of: 26 2/5, :38 2/5, :49 4/5, 1:01 3/5, out in 1:14 4/5, 1:29 1/5, 1:45 1/5 for the mile, 1:58 2/5 for the mile and an eighth, and 2:13 for the mile and a quarter. This was a departure from the rapid works the colt usually turns in..

“We’re trying to change his style,” Currin said. “We tried something different, and he was spectacular. He’s just an unbelievable horse. He was in an easy breeze the whole way around, and the main thing is how he came out of it. He wasn’t blowing a bit. I’ll take his combat boots off after one more work and then put on his wing-tipped shoes for race day.

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=38408

This horse is gonna break my heart. I really like Stormello. I just don't understand what they are doing with him.

[Bryan Sacks]

18. Nor do I, Sid. Why not the SA Derby? Why all the shipping?

Maybe he'll surprise us all 5/5.

[aaronbees]

19. Spent all day away from trackside stuff....

... with a friend in town, but we saw the Blue Grass (nice run, Dominican) and Ark. Derby (at a computer feed at the bar).

Street Sense, will you please be the second coming I want? Or if it's not you, Nobiz will you step it up, baby, and take those dorky blinkers to a Derby win like I know you can?

Curlin, I'm rooting for you because damn you're hot and I got to see you, but I'm not convinced even though that run today was genius.

Those are my thoughts!

[two gun sid]

20. Curlin 7-2 Derby Future Wager Favorite...

Notional off Derby Trail with non-displaced condylar fracture of his left front ankle.

Dominican, Street Sense, Zanjero, Teuflesberg and Great Hunter -- are all, according to their connections, pointing toward a start in the May 5 Kentucky Derby.

Reddam reached an “amicable settlement” with Fifth Third Bank over ownership of Great Hunter 45 minutes before the start of the April 14 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes.

Everyone is talking about how the Bluegrass was run like a turf race.

What horses are you talking about today?

[aaronbees]

22. Sticking with Nobiz and Street Sense...

as my top two. Gotta admit, Street Sense may have been a bit tarnished running awkward like that down the Keeneland stretch, but I fully expect him to bounce back up. (He'll probably be at a better price now, too.) Strange Blue Grass race all around Saturday even though it was a hoot to watch. Watched Curlin's race again and yes it's a sweet race and he smoked down that track, but I'm starting to rethink Asmussen as a big race prepper and Curlin's lack of competition - he should go off as the fave, though, which makes the odds nicer for some better horses. Honestly, I can see about 10 to 15 horses winning this now. Too bad about Notional's injury. Dominican looks a bit like Funny Cide with that shade of chestnut, and nice to see the Teuf run good and go to the Derby. This year's 3-year-olds don't seem particularly fast yet figure-wise, but they sure are competitive and dramatic.

[two gun sid]

21. Good article about Harness Great Dragon's Lair

From ustrotting.com:
The Night a Dragon did the Slaying
“An amazing, amazing evening.” That’s how Hambletonian Society/Breeders Crown President and CEO Tom Charters reverently describes October 12, 1984 -- the night Dragon’s Lair, Nihilator and 10 other gifted 2-year-old colts came together at The Meadows to battle out the first Breeders Crown for their age, gait and sex.

“At the time I was the only employee at The Breeders Crown and this was race was only the third event in its history,” recalls Charters. “I’m sure we’ve had Breeders Crown races as sensational, but certainly none more sensational.” Tom Charters was “there” and he remembers everything about the race and the atmosphere that surrounded it.

In a manner of speaking, Nihilator and Dragon’s Lair were not exactly peers going into this race. Of course they were both 2-year-old pacing colts at the top of their game, but the two hadn’t traveled in the same circles. Nihilator was a Grand Circuit horse in the truest sense of the word, whereas Dragon’s Lair enjoyed the warmer attention that is more often afforded to hometown heroes.

His connections were local and unpretentious, while Nihilator’s owners were the biggest, his trainer was the greatest and his driver was the winningest. As a matter of fact, Nihilator had so much going for him that something just had to go wrong.

http://www.ustrotting.com/absolutenm/anmviewer.asp?a=20838&z=1

[jakefrep]

39. As I recall,

The Meadows was none too kind to Nihilator throughout his career. I saw him lose to Marauder in the Adios final as a three-year-old.

[two gun sid]

23. THE BIG FIVE

From XpressBet.com:
Based on my key Kentucky Derby factors, five horses have the best chance to win the roses on May 5 because they have either zero strikes or one strike against them. Alphabetically, the “big five” are Cowtown Cat, Hard Spun, Nobiz Like Shobiz, Scat Daddy and Street Sense.

Cowtown Cat and Scat Daddy have zero strikes. Hard Spun, Nobiz Like Shobiz and Street Sense have one strike each.

In 1999, I came up with nine key Kentucky Derby factors to point out those 3-year-olds who have the best chance of winning from a tactical and historical perspective. I tinkered with the formula just a bit this year, expanding it to 10, based on the compelling historical evidence that a horse needs to have at least three preps. Of the last 52 horses to run in the Derby with fewer than three preps, 51 have failed. The only exception since Jet Pilot in 1947 was Sunny’s Halo in 1983.

When a horse doesn’t qualify in one of the 10 categories, he or she gets a strike. Since 1999, six of the eight Kentucky Derby winners have had either zero strikes or one strike. Nobody has had more than three.

http://www.xpressbet.com/Mjwarchive.aspx?view=476&month=04&year=2007

In Harness News: We won a qualifier yesterday with a 3YO filly pacer who was infected with EPM last year. Yeah, us!

[aaronbees]

24. Congrats, man!

You should post a pic of that filly sometime.

I think that was an interesting read from Jon White, though I think those Derby factors will be shattered more and more as time goes on and new "factors" will be made.

Did you see that Oak Tree Santa Anita is hosting the 2008 Breeders' Cup? It'll be the first on a synthetic surface; this probably won't be a popular opinion, but frankly I think that's a step in the right direction and at the right time.

Oh, and here's Randy Moss' chat with the Blood Horse today: http://www.bloodhorse.com/talkinhorses/RM041907.asp.

[Justpat]

25. That''s great about the filly!

What did you treat her with?

[two gun sid]

26. Marquis, vitamins, Decocci Krumbles....

but, I would never use Marquis again. There is some new stuff on the market that is supposed to work better. That Marquis almost killed her. I never want to go through that again. We are starting to give an EPM vaccine to everything on the farm this year.

[Justpat]

28. The new stuff is called Navigator

hppt://www.horseadvice.com/horse/messages/4/18400.html


http://www.idexx.com/equine/pharmaceuticals/navigator/



On another note, Carl Nafzger is quoted in the DRF as saying that the Grade 1 Blue Grass
has "got to go down as the stupidest Grade 1 race ever"

They went the first six furlongs in 1:17 and then sprinted the last 3/8 in 33.4
Only a few horses have been able to win on the front on this polytrack so everyone
slows down to a crawl and then runs the last three eights. I don't see where a horse
would come out of that race very tired.

[bread_and_roses]

32. Congrats to her and you! (n/t)

[jakefrep]

38. Congrats on the qualifier!

Your 3YO is faring better than ours at the moment. He's had one injury after another since going to Florida - mostly tendon-related. Our 2YO fillies are all training well at the moment.

[two gun sid]

42. Thank-you, all you guys....

I appreciate the support. We are entered in a maiden at Jackson Harness Friday night. Her first start and we drew the 8 hole. They start them 6 wide so we're trailers. I just want her to come back in one piece.

[two gun sid]

44. I have to brag...

Shark won by 8Q (USTA shorthand for 8 1/4) lengths last night. The local paper had her picture on the front page today.

[bread_and_roses]

45. That's great, sid! Is it possible to post the photo? (n/t)

[two gun sid]

47. Thank-you and yes I will post a picture.

[Justpat]

46. Yahoo!!

That's great, Sid.

can you post her win picture?

[two gun sid]

48. I will post pictures....

Thank-you for your support, OB. Here's the chart: http://racing.ustrotting.com/race_result.cfm?race_id=1903559


What did you think of Jazil on the grass the other day? Were you suprised with his effort? I was.

[aaronbees]

49. Love the name ... congrats! ..... n/t

[two gun sid]

27. Coolmore Lexington Past Performances...

with race shapes. I like Joe Got Even and Trust Your Luck. My exacta.

http://www.drf.com/promotions/email/mossprep/lex042107.pdf

[aaronbees]

29. What a payoff

Slew's Tizzy wins and pays $83. Exacta got $1,002.20 and a $97,128.00 superfecta. I was rooting for Biancone's horse, Belgravia.

[two gun sid]

31. That race wasn't run like I thought it would be...

this polytrack surface is kinda different. I didn't expect any horse to go gate to wire.

[aaronbees]

30. Hard Spun Enjoys a Massage

http://local.lancasteronline.com/4/203163

The muscles of any race horse feel taut. Racing can take a tremendous toll.

The muscles quiver, she said, on a race horse. "It's like working on a jackhammer; the muscle is shaking and quivering in your fingers."

McVey delivers the massages at least 48 hours before a race in order to allow a day to recover. Rubbing the muscles releases toxins that can lead to stiffness.

"Hard Spun very much enjoys having his back ends done," McVey said, especially his gluteus and bicep femoris, the muscle that rests above the legs, extends along the hip, hock and hind leg.

[aaronbees]

33. San Juan Capistrano being run today ... 1 3/4 mile marathon on the turf

At Santa Anita, 9th race. I like One Off here. A field of true stayers but not as stellar a field as used to run in this race.

[Bryan Sacks]

34. Very true. Hoping for Almeida and Fitz Flag. n/t

[aaronbees]

35. They just had a little tribute to Charlie Whittingham

On the youbet feed. He won 14 San Juan Capistranos!

[aaronbees]

36. Fitz Flag nosed it out for 3rd

Sweet Return took them a long ways before On the Acorn stormed up to win it.

[aaronbees]

37. My Derby Top Ten

:D
And I absolutely reserve the right to change this in the next 12 days. This is where, all things considered right now, I see them finishing Derby day.

1) Nobiz Like Shobiz - Starting to think Tagg has this one kept in reserve and we'll see a bullet work soon; I like the Wood run more and more and think he probably learned more in that race than all the others put together. Big remaining doubt is the speed, and somehow I wish Prado was riding him.
2) Street Sense - Only knocks are his stretch antics in the BG and a possible rail preference; otherwise, he'd be tops. At Churchill, he's going to command respect. I'd love to see the damn Juvie jinx broken.
3) Dominican - He's on the improve, and I don't think he's just a Poly wonder. Just a hunch. Maybe it's the fleur de lis on his silks that endears me to him. But also, he's been a different horse since gelded.
4) Hard Spun - The Lane's End showed us he can rate - I like the positioning he can get in this field if he hangs off the lead. Like Nobiz, he suggests brilliance but hasn't quite tapped it.
5) Great Hunter - More I look at the BG, I didn't like his run much; don't think he was going to win that day even if he wasn't cut off. But he's still in the top mix because of that nice move he showed out West.
6) Curlin - Arkansas Derby impressive, but is he tough? Mixed feelings on Asmussen as trainer. Word is Curlin physically evokes awe - I didn't quite see it, though he looked great on Rebel day.
7) Scat Daddy - Consistent as they come, just not quite sure he's fast enough (of course, that doubt could be said of Nobiz too). He's got a classic prep schedule, which now suddenly seems like a throwback.
8) Tiago - Like Dominican, he's got a nice closing kick. But he didn't beat much in SA. Can Mike Smith work wonders again in the stretch? (I don't see frontrunners fading here as much as they did in the Giacomo Derby.)
9) Circular Quay - He'd be higher but I think he's got problems with the layoff; also, he needs a dream run to maneuver through the field. All the same, he seems to fire it each race.
10) Any Given Saturday - For all his promise, has yet to win a graded stakes race. Would it be the Derby? Maybe.

So, who do you like today?

[two gun sid]

41. I have to be honest...

I think Scat Daddy wins the Derby but, I'll be screamin' and hollerin' for Stormello.

[aaronbees]

40. Haskin: My New Kentucky Home

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=38571

Some nice reports on Kentucky Derby contenders working in here, including gushing poetics on Curlin.

[bread_and_roses]

43. I do think Curlin is handsome

and I thought his win impressive and fun to watch. But if you think Haskin is poetical over his work, he waxes positively worshipful over Street Sense - calls his work "a masterpiece."