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We're just about a day away from selection Sunday, where the committee picks the so-called 65 best teams in the country to participate in next week's March Madness tournament.
There's still a considerable amount to be decided in the last two days of conference tournaments. There's a lot of debate about who should be the 4 #1 seeds. It appears like UCLA, North Carolina, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Florida, and Kansas are all in the running for the top seeds. A few weeks ago it looked like UCLA and Florida were secure in their top spots, but they have faltered down the stretch and that distinction is currently in jeopardy.
Nevertheless, UCLA likely maintains their #1 seed in the West. Despite bad losses on the road to Washington and Cal, they're helped by a high RPI, quality wins, and the fact that they're the only candidate from the West. If I were a team like Florida, I'd prefer to be #2 in the East than be shipped out to the West Coast.
Ohio State looks to be in good shape for a #1 in the Midwest. They secure that spot by winning against Purdue today and against Wisconsin/Illinois tomorrow. Despite the Big Ten being a bit down as a conference, 15-1 is still very impressive in league. They deserve credit for taking on quality non-conference foes, traveling to both North Carolina and Florida before conference play started. They did lose both games, but they've bounced back strong and their only losses are against Top 10 teams.
I still like Florida as a #1 if they can win their conference tournament. They don't have any real bad losses on their resume. While their play wasn't impressive against Vanderbilt and Tennessee, those were two very tough games for any team. Vandy was playing for an at-large bid, and it was Senior night in Knoxville. The Kansas loss early in the season was a hard-fought overtime contest in Las Vegas. I wouldn't hold that against Florida too much.
Kansas ends up likely taking the last #1 seed, if they can win against K-State and Texas. I give them the edge over UNC. Unfortunately for UNC's strength of schedule, they took a hit when the top-ranked teams fell in the ACC tournament. They should win the ACC easily, and will get the #1 if Kansas were to lose one of their last two games.
There are a few other teams claiming they should get a chance to be #1, most notably the winner of Pittsburgh/Louisville. I don't necessarily see that happening. The winner should be a #2 and the loser a #3.
The big debate now is who gets in from the last five or so at-large selections. The bubble isn't as big as it's been in previous years. I think most of the teams in are pretty safe. SI.com has six bubble spots listed, and I tend to agree with that. The A-10, Horizon, and WAC getting two bids will play a big role in narrowing the margin of error. Xavier, Butler, and Nevada are all locks to get an automatic bid. But now, the tourney winner will get a slot as well.
There's a big push for Drexel and Old Dominion to get at-large bids from the Colonial. As of now, both of them are probably in. We're left with teams like Kansas State, Florida State, Purdue, Arkansas, West Virginia, Air Force and Illinois hoping to get in. A lot of these decisions will depend on whether the selection committee wants to take an mediocre team from a major conference, or the 2nd or 3rd best team from a mid-major. The success of George Mason last year might lead to schools like FSU and West Virginia getting left out come Sunday.
The field will be a bit more concrete after some of the big games are played tonight. Because of time constraints, the results of tomorrow's games may have less of an impact than games played earlier. The committee goes to air at 6:00 ET, just as the Big 12 and Big 10 conclude their tournament. It might be enough to be in the tournament finals, and the result may not matter as much.
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