Kentucky Derby Week: news, notes, ruminations, picks

[aaronbees]

Kentucky Derby on Saturday at Churchill Downs.

This Run for the Roses is really shaping up to be quite a deep race with some flashy speed and quality closers. I'd say it's one of the best fields in quite some time, and as much as I love the top four (Brother Derek, Lawyer Ron, Barbaro, Sweetnorthernsaint) and find it hard to separate their abilities, there's a chance for almost any colt to bring it home. On first glance, I can only toss about three or four horses.

There's some thought this year's race could break down and let a Giacomo-type win again with so much speed on the front end: a Jazil, Cause to Believe or Steppenwolfer sailing in from the clouds. Sinister Minister, Keyed Entry, and Sharp Humor should all establish a lively pace, but I think at least two of the top four betting choices will show some restraint, sit five to ten lengths off of them and wait for their moves, landing them in the top four on class and guts. So, I predict no pace meltdown a la last year, and I think a favorite wins.

Here's some random thoughts on a few of the likely entries...

Brother Derek: Hard not to love him, but the thick field may set up poorly for him since he's had carpet ride after carpet ride in Cali. Ability to rate is something of a question mark, and he seemed to have a poor work back West last week. There's a look about him that screams Derby winner to me, though, and he's been brilliant since the Breeder's Cup Juvie loss. Grandson of Alydar. My heart's here.

Sweetnorthernsaint: His Illinois Derby was fantastic, and it looks like he can rate a bit off a moderate pace and come home with a furious kick. Question who he beat, though.

Barbaro: Most mysterious horse in the field to me with his lighter schedule. Still, he's got class and heart. Nice to see a horse with turf/dirt legs.

Lawyer Ron: He loves to run and run and gun -- but he could come up with an empty holster around the eighth pole. In his Arkansas Derby, he looked either: a) out of control, or b) brilliant enough to know where he needed to be and win. Would love to see him land this whole thing, given the Arkansas connection.

Bob and John: Consistent but not brilliant, he could land a piece of it.

A.P. Warrior and Point Determined: Almost feel like the same horse to me; A.P. has a better foundation but throws in some bad races now and then. I think one of them lands in the top three.

Jazil: Loved his Wood Memorial close but ... was it an optical illusion with the top horses crawling?


... What do other folks think?

Contenders noted here: http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2006/derby_coverage/derby_entrants/.

[aaronbees]

1. Three Excluded from Oversubscribed Kentucky Derby

Disappointed Sunriver doesn't get a shot ... would've liked him as an improving closer here.

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=33372

Three Excluded from Oversubscribed Kentucky Derby
by Ron Mitchell
Date Posted: 5/3/2006 12:22:55 PM
Last Updated: 5/3/2006 12:41:37 PM

Three horses, including Florida Derby (gr. I) third-place finisher Sunriver, were excluded when 23 horses were entered Wednesday for Saturday's Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I) that is limited to 20 starters on the basis of earnings in graded stakes.

Also excluded due to the graded earnings rule were Hemingway's Key and Lewis Michael.

Shortly after entries were taken at Churchill Downs' racing office, a draw was conducted to determine the order in which connections of the 20 horses will be permitted to select their post positions when that draw is held at 5 p.m. today.

As a result, the connections of San Felipe Stakes (gr. II) winner A. P. Warrior will get to draw first.

** Snip **

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=33365

Deputy Glitters is Final Derby Horse to Work
by Ron Mitchell
Date Posted: 5/3/2006 9:56:01 AM
Last Updated: 5/3/2006 9:56:01 AM

The last workout by a candidate for Saturday's Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I) was turned in Wednesday when Tampa Bay Derby (gr. III) winner Deputy Glitters was timed in 1:03 1/5 for five furlongs.
Trainer Tom Albertrani said he would have preferred a Tuesday breeze for the colt, but delayed it due to the torrential rain that fell in Louisville during early morning storms. He noted, however, that the son of Deputy Commander normally works three days before a major race.

The Joseph LaCombe homebred has won two of seven starts while earning $205,548. Following his Tampa Bay Derby win, the colt finished sixth over s sloppy track in the Wood Memorial (gr. I). In his only other start over a sloppy track, the colt finished sixth in the Champagne Stakes (gr. I) at Saratoga last year, leading to speculation that Deputy Glitters might be scratched from the Derby if the track came up muddy or sloppy.

Albertrani dismissed that possibility.

** Snip **

[two gun sid]

2. I want Lawyer Ron to win...

but his last 3 Beyers tell me he won't. I'm looking for a stretch runner to win it. Jazil is my choice. I threw Steppenwolfer out.

Will you be watching the Derby at OP?

[Justpat]

3. A few weeks ago I really liked Steppenwolfer

but I was reading that he is pretty crabby moving when he goes out on the track. His trainer
says he needs to jog a turn to loosen up before he gallops. I don't think I'd like to
bet the farm on this kind. But you never know. We had a complete cripple once that made
953,000 sprinting. But he was an older horse.

[two gun sid]

5. You gotta love a horse like your sprinter...

we bought a mare when she came off the track that raced with a bad ankle. She was a hell of a racemare and beat the boys a few times. Winters are kind of tough on the old gal but we do everything we can to keep her comfortable and happy. She knows how to take care of herself too ,so, she's not much problem. You have to admire those tough old horses.

[Justpat]

6. We didn't own the old guy, one of our long standing

owners did. It was an honor having him in the barn. He had a better work ethic than most people I know.

[aaronbees]

7. Headin' to my mom's farm...

and will have an impromptu Derby part up there, watching all the lead-up shows and whatnot while I wear my Smarty Jones cap, sip coffee and snuggle up with the dogs.

Would love to see LR win it (not as much as Bro Derek) but I think he's just too much horse to handle and rate. I'd support Jazil if it's slop ... why toss Steppenwolfer?

[two gun sid]

4. Derby Post Positions and M/L odds

From DRF:

http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2006/field.html

The other races on the card look pretty good also. Wend and Sis City in The Churchill Downs Distaff Turf and good ol' Perfect Drift in the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic.

http://www.drf.com/entries/06/eCD06.html?rn=654349

[aaronbees]

8. I like Gorella...

in the Woodford Reserve. Nice to see Drifty running again.

Nolan's Cat (ran as a maiden in the Belmont last year, I believe) is in race 3. Nice card, for sure .... man, wish I could make it back to the Derby some day.

[two gun sid]

9. I spent an hour last night watching replays of Derby preps...

This Derby field is outstanding. I expect several of these horses to go on to really good racing careers, win or lose tomorrow.

The horse that really stands out in my mind is Brother Derek. He looks and moves like my ideal of a Thoroughbred racehorse. Unfortunately, I don't believe he stands a snowballs chance in hell of winning tomorrow. But, in a twenty horse field lots of wild things can happen. If Brother Derek can somehow win tomorrow I think he has a really good shot at the Triple.

I'll br
e rooting for my exacta box Jazil and Lawyer Ron. (LR did rate very kindly in the Rebel).

[H2O Man]

10. Sharp Humor

is partially owned by the Purdy family of Ithaca, who have the Purdedel Stables. The horse was born on their farm. Their families are from this area, including Chris Purdy's grandfather, who was a blacksmith on the railroad my family worked on. Though it might sound like a strange reason, I'm hoping that Sharp Humor wins. I know that the trainer, Dale Romans, said that Sharp Humor is "so smart and he's so laid-back. He has tactical speed, he'll put himself in the race. And I think he'll prove he has stamina ..." (quote from Bloodhorse.com)

[two gun sid]

17. Support your local horse!

I used to watch and cheer Tenpins who started out in MI at lowly Great Lakes Downs. He won several GII & III races. He is now just starting his career as a stallion in KY. Pretty damn good for a MI horse.
Enjoy the race H2O Man.

[H2O Man]

18. It will be fun!

My brother on the west coast loves the races. Like others on this thread, he knows a heck of a lot more about the sport than me. An uncle in Orange, CA, had invested in horses, and I enjoyed when I visited them and we went to the races.

There is a farm in rural Otsego County, outside a hamlet Mt. Upton (named for a race horse!) where Howard Hughes' attorney lived for years. It's where some of the best horses in the 1960s and '70s used to spend time. I would drive to the farm, just to watch the horses in the fields. Beautiful animals.

[bread_and_roses]

31. Do you mean Milfer Farm where Spectacular Bid stood?

I live in the Southern Tier and visited SB not long before he died. The farm staff were very gracious and gave us a long tour, even though I'd made clear I was not in the business and simply wanted to meet "the best horse to ever look through a bridle" in the flesh.

"The Bid" was also very gracious, used to homage, and allowed us to stroke him. Of course, he was a mellow - 29? - then, though the farm staff said he was still a handful in the shed.

That IS one beautiful place.

[two gun sid]

41. I envy you.

The Bid was the greatest horse ever foaled in my opinion. I was never able to see him in the flesh.

[Awsi Dooger]

42. I saw him in person once

The famous Florida Derby in which Ronnie Franklin kept parking bid behind a wall only to have the horse escape time after time, nonchalantly looping the roadblock. The wag assessment out of that mile and an eighth race: we know Bid can run a mile and a quarter because he already has.

Awesome horse. I rooted against him in the Belmont only because the flurry of Triple Crown winners was seemingly cheapening the accomplishment. In retrospect, that was a mistake. Bid was truly Triple Crown caliber and deserves to have his name remembered alongside the other legends of the '70s.

[two gun sid]

43. He overcame all of Franklin's bad rides except one...

and it cost him the TC.
His 4YO year proved to me what a great horse he was. The Bid is the yardstick I use to measure all the horses I've seen. And I mean no disrespect to Slew, Affirmed or Secretariat.

[bread_and_roses]

44. There is a fine article about him in

the Unofficial Thoroughbred Hall of Fame, in case you've never read it:

http://www.spiletta.com/UTHOF/spectacularbid.html

It gives a detailed account of most of his races. Among my favorite accounts:

The field for the 1979 Jockey Club Gold Cup was one of the finest ever assembled, which is no small compliment. The previous year the great Exceller had nosed out Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew while Triple Crown winner Affirmed ran out of the money for the only time in his career...

In 1979, they called it the Race of the Century, a term which hadn't been used all year. Affirmed had just won six straight, and Spectacular Bid had only the Belmont Stakes to mar his record. Coastal had just run second to Affirmed in the Woodward Stakes.

Spectacular Bid wasn't the winner that day, but he displayed a rare courage. He tried to get by Affirmed with four separate runs. If a horse makes two strong moves in a race, he is praised. The Bid tried to get by the great Affirmed four times. That he couldn't is no black mark on his record, but is only a testament to both his own courage and Affirmed's ability.

Like the farm staff who took us to see him said, "He had heart."

edit for quote box

[Awsi Dooger]

45. I thought Bid would defeat Affirmed

Despite being the 3 year old. Bid seemed like the more talented horse but Affirmed held him off repeatedly that day. Maybe Bid just wasn't his best at 1 1/2 miles.

[H2O Man]

53. Yep.

It's a beautiful place. It's right near Black Ash Swamp. Great view, beautiful stone walls.

[u4ic]

21. Sharp Humour is game

I really like him...sort of reminds me of Peace Rules a few years back.

I've been thinking about him quite a bit...

[bread_and_roses]

32. *waves to u4ic* I think he's interesting too,

I hoped he'd do well too, for the Ithaca, NY, and FC connection.

[u4ic]

38. Hi Kenzee!

*waves back* Hope you are doing well.

Barbaro was too much for the rest, wasn't he?

Sharp Humour was game in his pre-Derby races, I'm sure he'll be back to the winner's circle again.

[aaronbees]

49. He's much better than...

what he showed yesterday, I think -- maybe he's a miler. I like the heart he showed in the Florida Derby.

So what do you think of George Washington? How good will he be?

[u4ic]

56. When he's good, he's GOOD

But I still think Horatio Nelson's got the better pedigree for Epsom.

It's always hard to know what's really going on, though (esp for HN)...no recorded workouts like in North America, and Coolmore is notoriously secretive...

Sharp Humour hurt himself: http://www.bloodhorse.com/articleindex/article.asp?id=33485

[aaronbees]

57. Well then...

I'll have to take a look at some of their races if I get the chance. Hope some strong European horses come over this year ... did you see that Barbato's owners would consider the Arc? I think it's wishful thinking myself (because if he wins the TC, he's as good as done after another race or two), but it's a nice wish all the same. Hope Ouija Board comes back over this year, too -- love that mare.

Too bad about Sharp Humour ... hope he gets back later this year.

[u4ic]

58. Are you turning Canadian?

Look at your spelling of Humour...;)

I read about that...but there would be so many things for him to overcome...the distance, different surface, the going (is usually a bog at that time of year), totally different style of racing, running in the opposite direction...

I remember reading Jerry Bailey saying he couldn't get over the Euros balance...their incredibly strong backs, especially...because they race on uneven ground.

Take a look at this pic of Epsom:



I don't remember the specifics of Longchamp...whether there's a fair bit of incline or not...I'd have to check on that. :hi:

I agree...if he wins the TC, that's probably the end of his racing career...maybe a prep then the BC Classic at most.

[aaronbees]

60. Ha :)

Well, I was actually just daydreaming about drinking LaBatt's ... so maybe I am turning Candian. ;)

That ground on Epsom does look rough! I don't know if Barbaro would stand a snowball's chance over at Longchamp, but just the effort would be great; if I recall correctly, Kitten's Joys' owners were also pondering it before KJ was retired to his studly future. (Though that may have been the Melbourne Cup or some such.)

I have not seen his races on grass, but the word is Barbaro's turn of foot is stellar there (I'm thinking he showed that in the Laurel Futurity). I think he'd have the stamina, though, and he's tactical and strong. Now, taking a look at his PP's, he ran on firm ground for the three turf races.

In any case, there's much time and distance to go before Barbaro lands the TC -- part of me is still rooting for my boi Brother Derek, who should get a much finer trip this time ... is that bad of me? But I'd sure like to see a TC in my day, all the same.

[u4ic]

61. The stamina angle comes in

2 different ways...to get through the bog, and also the inclines...for example, a horse who can get no farther than 10f there, will usually have no trouble coming over here to race at 12f.

It's like him having to get 14f here. (ah for the old days of the JCGC being 2 miles...sigh...)

Yes, it was the Arc they were looking at for KJ...I do remember that.

I wish we had the equivalent of the Melbourne Cup here...I have a friend there, and it's just...unbelievable. She gets paid time and a half for working Cup day! Literally...the race that stops a nation.

Brother D is a fine horse, too...who knows, he may be able to exact revenge. There are so many factors, the best horse doesn't always win the Derby (the best horse on the DAY, yes...though I think Barbaro is far and wide the best 3 yr old)...Brother Derek should do better in his upcoming races, I would hope.

I didn't have a strong favourite this year...there were so many nice horses, I just wanted to watch the drama unfold...:-)

[u4ic]

59. Just found this article on Kieran Fallon

FALLON - GEORGE BEST I HAVE SAT ON


Former champion jockey Kieren Fallon has revealed that he considers 2000 Guineas winner George Washington to be the best horse he has ever sat on.

The three-year-old has only tasted defeat once, on his debut at Newmarket, and already has three Group One victories to his name from six career starts.

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=racing/06/05/13/RACING_Fallon.html

(I'm just cynical of any PR coming out of that farm)

[two gun sid]

11. Lemons Forever upsets in 'Oaks'

From DRF:
Lemons Forever, the longest shot in a 14-horse field at 47-1, won the Kentucky Oaks in a stunning upset, rallying widest in the stretch under Mark Guidry to beat Ermine, a 10-1 chance, paying $96.20 to win.

http://www.drf.com/news/article/74268.html

[Justpat]

12. I love Barbaro but don't know if he can get 1 1/4 on the dirt.

My husband thinks Matz is doing a great job and is counting on winning the Triple Crown, not just the Derby.

His schedule leading up to the Derby has been very well planned and it has come off flawlessly.


I'm going to keep Barbaro on top, put Point Determined second. It's a toss up between Point Determined and A.P. Warrior for third.

[two gun sid]

16. My father loves Point D....

but, I think it is just because of Baffert. Which is probably as good a reason to pick a winner in the Derby as anything else.
Good Luck, OB.

And that is pretty high praise for Matz.

[Justpat]

50. In hindsight, this is one of the stupidest statements ever.

Barbaro could have gone two miles if that was the distance of the race.

This horses can just run.

[Awsi Dooger]

51. I wouldn't go that far

Only two dirt races to go on. Barbaro didn't exactly finish with gusto in the Florida Derby. I had him maybe my 4th or 5th choice, even though the word undefeated always means plenty to me.

Last week I read Andy Beyer's Derby chat transcript. He called Barbaro probably the most talented colt in the race. Said he showed great burst and finishing ability in those turf races. Beyer had similar concerns to yourself, that perhaps Barbaro was a turf horse and a distance on dirt wouldn't suit him perfectly. He liked Barbaro as one of his top three choices but picked AP Warrior first, and that was the top dud among the name horses.

Now, of course, it's obvious Barbaro simply hadn't run on a fast dirt track until last Saturday. The breeding is impeccable, as you mentioned before the Derby. I didn't look up his pedigree until you wrote that.

[Justpat]

52. His pedigree is incredible.

I hope to have a filly worth breeding to him someday.

[u4ic]

13. 2000 Guineas this weekend, too

Since the video isn't up (as it said it should be) at RacingPost, I'll have to put my 4 favs:

Sir Percy
Amadeus Wolf
Red Clubs
Opera Cape

Since the vast majority of them haven't raced yet this year...we shall see...

(notice I am omitting the Coolmore entry... :-) but Horatio Nelson is my classic pick of their horses, esp for the Derby )

[u4ic]

22. George Washington won the 2000 Guineas today

you can watch the race at www.racingpost.co.uk

Blew them away...Sir Percy second.

[jakefrep]

36. And Speciosa wins the 1000 Guineas...

Story here:

http://www.racingpost.co.uk/news/rp_std_page.sd?psection=racingpost.co.uk&page=report_07_05_06_GNS

Shirocco won his first start since the Breeders' Cup Turf as well.

[u4ic]

37. It's great

that Coolmore didn't get the sweep.

Wonderful story for her and her connections.

I had Shirocco to win in last year's BC...glad to hear he won.

[jakefrep]

46. It was a great way to spend Sunday morning...

Watching the racing from England on TVG with a fresh pot of coffee. I was mad that I didn't get to do the same on Saturday with the 2000 Guineas - I had a campaign staff meeting.

[Awsi Dooger]

14. I'll look for the head-to-head matchups in the morning

Right now I'll look to play Brother Derek and Sweetnorthernsaint. Although I despise stringedtogethernameslikethat.

Both had Beyers in the 108 or 109 range in the last outing, which is generally ideal. Lawyer Ron and Sinister Minister are both 4.00 or higher on Dosage. I know that's been a flawed system of late including Giacomo last year, but it still holds up much more often than not and in a talented field I'm damn sure paying attention. Barbaro and A. P Warrior had 103 and 101 Beyers, hardly disqualifying them but not standout.

One of the most interesting races in years. I can't remember so many talented horses bunched at 6/1 to 9/1.

[two gun sid]

15. Awsi, how do you see the pace scenario unfolding?

[Awsi Dooger]

24. Sorry I didn't see your post in time

I wouldn't have gotten it right:) I thought they would run maybe 45 3/5 and the speed would be much more bunched.

[two gun sid]

33. Didn't happen the way I envisioned the race either...

and Barbaro was more horse than I thought he'd be on dirt. I didn't like his FL Derby race. I thought he was not as comfortable on dirt as he had been on grass. Prado gave him a really good trip though. I hope Derek came out of the Derby OK and Barbaro and Derek hook up in the Preakness.

[aaronbees]

48. Looks like Derek will go to the Preakness

Prado's ride was masterful. I kept waiting for Solis to move Brother Derek inside closer to the rail and it just never happened; looked to me like there was just no hole for him to do it, and he even fell back to 16th at one point.

Barbaro's going to be tough to beat, but I'd expect 10 or so to give him a run.

Pace was a little slower than I expected too; interesting that Keyed Entry beat Sinister Minister to the punch.

[two gun sid]

19. Good Luck to all you railbirds...

I'm leaving for my nephews confirmation. Thankfully, the church is only 2 blocks from my local track. But why a Irish priest would have confirmation on Derby Day is beyond me. My other nephew was confirmed on Derby Day 2004. Good Christ, is nothing sacred?

[aaronbees]

20. Haskin picks A.P. Warrior

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=33420

Steve Haskin's Derby Analysis: A. P. Exclusive
by Steve Haskin
Date Posted: 5/5/2006 6:56:26 PM
Last Updated: 5/6/2006 10:10:51 AM

It is finally time to put the pieces of the puzzle together. Because of the number of late arrivals, the following analysis will be in two parts: works, gallops, and overall impressions and handicapping angles. Those will then be incorporated in an attempt to narrow the choices down to a few horses to box in the exotics.

There simply are too many highly regarded horses with near-identical running styles to get a good read on this race, which is one of the most puzzling in memory.

First off, from strictly a personal angle, I will place some sort of saver on PrivateVow for old times' sake, because I had him ranked No. 2 all winter until the Rebel Stakes (gr. II). I still believe he needs another start before he's ready to peak, but he's been improving dramatically in his training and physical development and working and galloping well. So, let's just get that one out of the way.

There have been several horses who have been training well and doing all the right things, and then there is Barbaro. Although the one race in 13 weeks is still somewhat of a concern, as is the likely scenario of the race, it is safe to say that no one has stood out, in his looks and training, more than the son of Dynaformer. Each day, he seems to be getting stronger and sharper. Between his six-furlong work (or four furlongs depending on how you look at it), his gallops, and his overall physical condition, he looks like a horse who is ready to run the race of his life.

** snip **

[Horse with no Name]

23. I'm going with my superfecta

Barbaro-Brother Derek-Lawyer Ron-Cause To Believe
with alternate selections of Sharp Humor and Sweetnorthernsaint.
Good Luck everyone!

[aaronbees]

25. And it's Barbaro...

As great a race as I've seen a 3-year-old run in a long time. Biggest winning margin since Assault back in the '40s. Matz had him right; you could tell Barbaro was ready to roll right over the field the way he looked in the post parade.

Triple Crown ... he's got a real shot.

Brother Derek, you did all right for a poor post (I was wrong on that) and some bumps on the road. C'est la vie :)

Props to the connections; Barbaro is a classy, thrilling athlete. :headbang:

[Awsi Dooger]

26. Barbaro will win the Triple Crown

I've doubted every recent Derby/Preakness winner but this colt is the real thing. No evidence of vulnerability, such as an inexplicable defeat early in his career. Undefeated means a great deal in this case. Tons of versatility as evidenced by the wins on grass. His pedigree is best suited to classic distance but he has points in all five categories and won't wobble a 28 second final quarter in the Belmont like Smarty did. The push button running style is ideal. He is incredibly well rested compared to the typical Derby horse and today's effort shouldn't take much out of him, in fact the opposite.

Brother Derek was routed wide the entire trip today and might challenge at Pimlico if the advantages are reversed in his favor, but I doubt it will be enough. Then the Belmont will be a very short field, and unless he gets an inexplicable poor ride or a fluke setback like Spectacular Bid's safety pin, we're looking at the second undefeated Triple Crown winner. As a huge Seattle Slew fan, I'm sure I'll cringe at the comparisons but Barbaro is legit and it's time the sport found a super horse.

[Justpat]

27. When he crossed the wire today

they showed a close up of him finishing - he hadn't turned a hair. He did not have a patch of sweat on him.

He is the real deal.

[Kingofalldems]

28. He looked awesome

And his jockey never touched him, just showed him the whip. I wonder how his time compared to previous Derbys. I believe Secretariat did a 1:59 but I'm not sure.

[Awsi Dooger]

29. Barbaro ran 2:01:36

That's a very good time. Basically two seconds slower than Secretariat's record 1:59 2/5.

[Awsi Dooger]

30. My only hesitation

The only thing that makes me pause on Barbaro winning the Triple Crown is he wasn't a dominant superstar as a 2 year old. He won some rather obscure turf races. Secretariat was Horse of the Year at 2, Slew was dominant including a 1:34 2/5 mile in the Champagne Stakes to win 2 year old champ, and Affirmed defeated Alydar 4 of 6 times as 2 year olds, winning division honors.

I've always believed the next Triple Crown hero would be a budding legend late in his 2 year old campaign. But that's admittedly a very short sample, three times, and I've probably overstated the significance. These horses are lightly raced at 2 so not as much chance to separate themselves or display awesome ability.

[Justpat]

34. Because he has a turf pedigree I imagine they did not

consider starting him on the dirt in a sprint. They waited until the grass races started for two year olds in the fall.

I think if the Belmont was two miles, he's win that distance too.

[PDittie]

35. Dang that Bluegrass Cat

He really cost me a pretty penny. If Steppenwolfer had just stepped a little quicker, too...

[Awsi Dooger]

39. Sweetnorthernsaint's trainer claims rail was dead

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/05/06/AR2006050601463.html

"Trombetta said he and jockey Kent Desormeaux had discussed before the race that the inside path on the Churchill Downs track appeared lifeless, leading horses to tire quicker in the earlier races on the Derby card. But on the inside was exactly where Sweetnorthernsaint wound up.

"We unfortunately got caught on a dead rail," said Trombetta, who declined to blame his rider. "We knew it, thought about it but still wound up there in some way. It was very exciting when he was gaining a lot on some very nice horses. I think he was a little light in seasoning for a race of this magnitude and was on the slowest part of the racetrack."

Already, Trombetta has turned his attention to the second leg of the Triple Crown, the $1 million Preakness Stakes in two weeks at Pimlico. Trombetta said Desormeaux, who overslept and missed Sweetnorthernsaint's final Derby workout, would retain the mount for his bid to win his hometown race.

"My horse looked like he came back good and I would like nothing more than to take another crack in two weeks," he said.

[two gun sid]

40. Rematch in store for Preakness

From DRF:
LOUISVILLE, Ky. - The top three choices from the Kentucky Derby, including runaway winner Barbaro, all came out of the race well and will move on to the second leg of the Triple Crown, the Preakness Stakes on May 20 at Pimlico, their respective trainers said Sunday morning at Churchill Downs.

Barbaro, who was the second choice, "looks bright," his trainer, Michael Matz, said Sunday morning.

Barbaro was scheduled to go to Matz's barn at the Fair Hill training center in Maryland on Sunday afternoon. Matz said he would likely come to Pimlico a couple of days before the Preakness.

Brother Derek, who finished in a dead-heat for fourth after a wide trip, is also going to the Preakness, as is Sweetnorthernsaint, who went off as the favorite and finished seventh after a deceptively tough trip.

http://www.drf.com/news/article/74328.html

Brother Derek lost his right front shoe during the running of the race. No way he could have beat the winner though. Let's see if he can turn the tables on Barbaro in the Preakness.

[aaronbees]

47. Nice story on Prado...

Who ended up winning three races today at Belmont on the day after the Derby.

http://www.courier-journal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060507/COLUMNISTS02/605070489

Moment transforms quiet Prado
Only mom's absence makes it bittersweet
By Jerry Brewer

No one ever sees Edgar Prado this emotional over a horse race, not even his wife of 19 years. He's perpetually moving on. There's always another race, another chance, so why make the heart pump any faster than normal?

This approach has served him well, for sure, earning him a three-year run as the nation's winningest jockey from 1997-99 and two triumphs in the Belmont Stakes. But it doesn't do much for "Honey, how was your day?" chatter.

"He doesn't say much," said Lilliana Prado, his wife and former neighbor in Lima, Peru. "He says, 'Well, tomorrow is another day. I have another horse. Forget about this and keep going.' "

There are times in life, however, when you must dance with the moment. Yesterday, amid the celebration of his greatest victory, Edgar Prado shifted gears.


** snip **

[two gun sid]

54. Barbaro ran to his breeding

From DRF:
Last Saturday was a good day for pedigree handicappers as normalcy returned to the Kentucky Derby after a four-year hiatus. The victory by Barbaro was satisfying because it was the first time since Monarchos in 2001 that a runner who was bred to enjoy 1 1/4 miles ran to his pedigree and won the race. Interestingly, Monarchos and Barbaro's sire, Dynaformer, descend from the same female family.

From 2002 to 2004, speed ruled in the Derby. In 2002, War Emblem surprised the industry when he wired the Derby. While his sire, Our Emblem, possessed a pedigree as good as any stallion (Mr. Prospector out of champion Personal Ensign), Our Emblem took after his brilliant sire rather than Personal Ensign, finding his niche as a sprinter who placed in several stakes. Conversely, Our Emblem's stakes-winning full brothers Miner's Mark and Traditionally were most effective over classic distances.

Funny Cide's victory in 2003 was more palatable since he is by Distorted Humor, a son of Forty Niner who has proven himself as a serious stallion many times over. In addition, Funny Cide's performances leading up to the Derby, including a game second in the Wood Memorial behind Empire Maker, made him a contender. While Funny Cide's victory was legitimate, there is no doubt that he was aided by Empire Maker's foot problems, which surfaced in the weeks leading up to the Derby and caused him to miss valuable training time.

The 2004 Derby victor, Smarty Jones, who was the most dominant winner of this trio, had the most unlikely Derby pedigree of the three. Smarty Jones is by Elusive Quality, a very talented miler who was brilliant on dirt and turf. Smarty Jones remains an aberration - the only runner by Elusive Quality to perform at racing's highest level at classic distances. Elusive Quality is a solid source of high speed, and his progeny are sprinter-milers.

http://www.drf.com/news/article/74366.html

[Awsi Dooger]

55. Andy Beyer picks Barbaro to win Triple Crown

Basically says only bad luck will prevent a Triple Crown.

Beyer asserts Barbaro may be even better on grass than dirt, leading to potential of winning the biggest turf prizes overseas.

The article is free, but you have to sign up for the Daily Racing Form free service, a very brief form.

http://drf.com/drfNewsArticle.do?NID=74336&subs=0&arc=0