Mayweather vs Pacquiao?

[H2O Man]

“Haha ….you are prophetic!” – e-mail from last night.

This weekend, I was talking with a couple of area high school athletic coaches about the sport of boxing. As always, the subject of a potential Mayweather vs Pacquiao fight came up. I said that the sports world would soon find out that arrangements were underway to hold this Super Fight on May 5, 2012, in Las Vegas.

One of the coaches, who I do not know well, said that he believed that Pacquiao would be fighting Timothy Bradley in May. I was impressed, because with his recent signing with a new promoter, the Bradley camp has made public comments about such a fight. However, I said, Mayweather was preparing to call Pacquiao out, again. And I am confident that Manny will challenge for Floyd's title for two reasons: first, he wants to chisel his place in boxing history with a win over Mayweather; and second, each fighter will literally make over $100 million in this fight.

Thirty-six hours ago, the media – particularly ESPN – began reporting that Floyd Mayweather, Jr.'s camp had announced plans to hold this fight on May 5 at the MGM in Vegas. Hence, the e-mail quoted above, in its entirety, from one of the coaches I had spoken to over the weekend. The public reaction to the announcement has been mixed.

The Pacquiao camp responded angrily, saying that Mayweather has a habit of trying to distract attention from Pac-Man's fights. This is, of course, correct. Floyd has done these things before. And Manny does have the November 12 bout against Juan Manuel Marquez coming up. The two had a pair of very close fights, and should have fought a third time to settle matters years ago. As former champion Greg Haugen noted in our interview last week, Pacquiao waited until after Mayweather inflicted serious damage on Marquez, before agreeing to meet the aging, smaller foe a third time. Few in the boxing community believe that Marquez poses any threat to Pacquiao at this late date.

Several sports journalists have questioned what they view as Mayweather's attempts to dictate all the terms of a potential fight. That's partly accurate: Mayweather definitely believes he is in a position to do so. An ESPN commentator said that Manny is at least as big of a draw as Floyd. That is not accurate; Floyd's PPV sales are substantially larger. This creates the leverage.

The other controversy has been Mayweather's insisting on Olympic-style testing to detect illegal drugs use. I am including a link to what the boxing community views as the single most important statement on this issue. It is from an ESPN Friday Night Fights discussion; Teddy Atlas details the two e-mails from Team Pacquiao to Team Mayweather (at about 9 minutes into the clip).

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5OdXkQ1B4wY

Will this Super Fight happen? I believe that it will. There have been more negotiations between the two fighter's camps than is presently being reported.

If it does happen, it will certainly be the most anticipated boxing match since Muhammad Ali versus Smokin' Joe Frazier's first fight. Who do you think will win?

[ScreamingMeemie]

1. Nope. But if it did, the winner would be Pacquiao, IMO. n/t

[H2O Man]

3. I think Manny will

take the fight. He will earn at least $75 million, probably over $100 million. That is a lot of money.

I think that the most likely outcome is Mayweather by decision, in a fight that many find "boring." But if Pac Man fights hard after 6 rounds, Floyd will stop him late in the bout.

[frylock]

5. i would agree..

mayweather by decision.

[H2O Man]

6. When they were first

preparing to fight, I kept track of the comments by the writers at The Ring magazine. Their articles were almost 100% pro-Manny and anti-Floyd. To top it off, one issue's editorial stated that "boxing fans" -- including himself -- were going to be disappointed, because Mayweather would likely win by decision. After all of his earlier bluster, he recognized that styles make fights, and that Mayweather would be able to counter anything Pacquiao threw at him, plus be strong enough to keep Manny at the distance he needed to, to get off his punches.

I thought it was singular that the editor of the top boxing magazine thought he could speak for "boxing fans," as if everyone favored Pacquiao as much as he and his staff did.

Manny Pacquiao is a unique and intense fighter. He definitely ranks among the top champions in boxing history. I do think that he has to be considered in boxing history the way that Barry Bonds and some others are in baseball history. It is unfortunate that a growing number of boxers have broken the rules this way.

Either way, I do not think he poses as much a threat to Mayweather, as have a couple of other recent/current fighters around that weight. But that is not a knock on him, or intended to disrespect what he has accomplished. There weren't that many welterweights who would have matched up well with Floyd; nor were there many that I'd have favored over Manny.

[frylock]

7. your insight is really invaluable..

i don't mean to come off as some sort of kiss ass, but i've been reading your posts for years, and i am always impressed with your depth and knowledge of boxing. i'm merely a casual observer, grew up watching the great middleweight bouts of the 80's. i don't know if you write for any publications, but you really should water man. thanks for all the great posts!

[H2O Man]

9. Well, thanks!

I have had articles published in boxing magazines; there are fewer around these days, and those who write for them are a bit territorial. So I tend to do more for newspapers and a couple of internet sites.

One of the issues that comes into play is that most boxing writers do it for a living. So they aren't looking to advance others. In the example of The Ring, for example, one older writer who I used to debate decades ago, secured his absolutely untalented and ill-informed son a spot. (Both of my sons are far better writers, and know far, far more about the sport. They joke that I should have done more to advance them!)

More, the members of the boxing writers association depend almost entirely on their relationships with boxing promoters. Hence, they tend to be brown-nosers, rather than real journalists. There are, at most, two that I think have abilities to write on a level near my own. (I'm friends with both of them.)

There have been a number of outstanding books produced in the past decade, by guys who are more "general sports" writers. It's a shame that more newspapers don't carry boxing writers, or even the sports writers who appreciate boxing. I've done a few articles that I've allowed a Gannett writer to use, under his name. Too funny, sometimes.

I have about 50 years of experience with boxing: fighting, training fighters, studying other trainers, etc. I love the sport, and especially the men who box. I think that my understanding of both sociology and psychology adds to the quality of some of the article & interviews I do. So I write for fighters, and the boxing community, not for money or for promoters. I prefer having access, as a retired fighter who writes for fun, to boxers, than to having to kiss any promoter's ass for some coin. I think that sports fans appreciate that.

[Iggo]

2. Years too late.

[H2O Man]

4. Respectfully disagree.

They have really only been active in the same general weight class for two years.

I do agree with top trainer Manny Stewart that even though they are the same weight, that Floyd is simply too big and strong for Pacquiao.

[trumad]

8. Floyd will beat Manny to a pulp.

It will be his finishing touch on one of the greatest boxing careers ever---plus he'll go out a very very rich man.

[H2O Man]

10. My son D and I

have been debating that. He thinks Floyd by decision; I can see that, but I think Manny will go all out to win, not just try to last. And an essential point in fights between great fighters is that the one who can turn his opponent's greatest assets to his advantage, wins.

Manny's greatest strength is his offensive bursts .... fans love to see him explode with combinations. In fact, when he gets hit, he ALWAYS comes back, returning fire, immediately. This is the factor that could result in Floyd's beating him up and TKOing him.

[thelordofhell]

11. Cinco De Mayo??

Takes a lot of balls to fight on that day