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May 7
At Las Vegas (Showtime PPV): Manny Pacquiao vs. Shane Mosley, 12 rounds, for Pacquiao's WBO welterweight title; Wilfredo Vazquez Jr. vs. Jorge Arce, 12 rounds, for Vazquez's WBO junior featherweight title; Kelly Pavlik vs. Alfonso Lopez, 10 rounds, super middleweights.
There is a big weekend scheduled for the boxing community, with the highlight being “Pac Mac” vs Sugar Shane in a PPV fight. Friday night's ESPN card will also be held in Vegas, and should include some interesting analysis of Saturday's big match-up. As forum readers know, I place a high value on Teddy Atlas's opinion, and the FNF will be worth watching for that alone.
The Showtime undercard is of fair quality, in large part because it features the return of former middleweight champion Kelly Pavlik. After winning that crown by an impressive knockout of Jermain Taylor, Pavlik appeared on the edge of ring greatness. However, he had lengthy periods of inactivity, which were attributed to an infection in his hand. While that was in part accurate, the truth was that Pavlik's career was severely damaged by alcoholism.
Currently sober after a stretch in rehab, Pavlik will attempt to get back on track in a heavier weight class. He faces an undefeated contender, Alfonso Lopez, from Texas; Lopez's 21-0 record features 16 knockouts. But he has yet to face even “C” class opposition, and so it is likely that Pavlik will destroy him. On paper, it is a good win for Kelly, though there is always the possibility that Lopez actually ready to step up and fight at the top level in his division.
The most important statistic for the Pacquiao vs Mosley bout is age: Manny is a near-prime 32 years old, while Shane is an old 39. Mosley had a solid amateur career, winning national and world amateur titles by the late 1980s. His hopes for a spot on the '92 Olympic team were ended by Vernon Forrest.
Mosley turned pro in early 2003, and was recognized as one of the fastest, and hardest-punching fighters of the era. He would win the lightweight title in 1997, and win eight title defenses in a row by knockout. He then moved up in weight, and take the welterweight crown from Oscar de la Hoya. After three defenses – all won by knockout – he would lose the title to Vernon Forrest. In a sport where styles make fights, Forrest had Mosley's number.
Shane would again beat Oscar, then attempt to win the junior middleweight crown. However, Ronald “Winky” Wright – who re-hydrated and entered the ring as a light heavyweight – was simply too big. Mosley's career after the 2004 Wright bouts never seemed consistent: he would look good in one bout, then old in the next. One problem was that he was fighting at junior middleweight, and was just not big enough for that division.
At welterweight, he did challenge Miguel Cotto, who was still undefeated at the time. However Mosley, who was in the middle of changing trainers, fought the wrong fight for the first half of the bout. By the time he figured Cotto out, it was too late to close the gap on the score cards, and Shane lost a close decision. Two fights later, Shane challenged Antonio Margarito, who had TKOed Cotto. Shane, who was given little chance going into that fight, dominated. However, in his two bouts since, he was easily outpointed by Floyd Mayweather (although he hurt Floyd in round two); then drew against Sergio Mora.
Mosley is bigger than Pacquiao. He is about three inches taller, and has a seven inch reach advantage. Also important is that Manny – unlike Floyd and Sergio – is an aggressive fighter, rather than one who is difficult to find, much less hit. Pacquiao, while close to his prime, has actually slowed down a half-step in the ring. He has taken a fair amount of punishment in the past few years; because he wins convincingly, many fans have not recognized this.
Shane has also been working with Naazim Richardson, one of the most intelligent trainers in the sport. Richardson's specialty is working with older fighters, including the legendary Bernard Hopkins, who continues to defy the aging process. Naazim has pointed out that boxing experts are aware of three basic flaws in Pacquiao's style. However, no opponent in recent years has exploited those errors. Can Floyd do so on Saturday?
Manny, of course, has earned a ranking among boxing's all-time great champions. In part, this is because of the genius of trainer Freddie Roach. Not only has Roach greatly improved Pac Man's skill level, but he has been selective in his matching Manny against the proper opponents. For over two years, Freddie was open about why he would not okay a bout against Shane: Mosley was simply too big, and his skill level too high. In the Mora bout, Roach noted a decline in Shane's physical abilities. Hence, Saturday's fight.
There are two old sayings in boxing, one of which will apply to this fight. The first is, “I could see openings, but not get the punches off; and I could see punches coming, but not get out of the way.” This is what Roach is counting on. It is, of course, the most likely outcome.
The other saying is that “every great boxer has one last great fight in them, at the end of their career.” While I expect Manny to be too much for Shane, and possibly become the first man to stop him, I think it is possible that Mosley can win. For that to happen, he will have to exploit at least one of those three bad habits. (Remember, ALL fighters make mistakes. But one must prepare to exploit those things which are habits, meaning they happen in most fights, rather than a single mistake.)
What are they?
{1} Manny will sometimes lower his head, and literally walk in at his opponent. Not slide/shuffle in correctly; but actually cross his feet as he advances. In Mosley's prime, it would be a given that he would severely punish Manny for this.
{2} Manny likes to throw the last punch (or combination) in every exchange. In general, this is a strength in boxing. You try to instill this in any fighter you train. The only potential problem is when a fighter always does this, in any and all circumstances. A talented counter-puncher – think Floyd Mayweather – counts on Manny doing this. That which is predictable can be taken advantage of.
{3} Now this is another “habit” that, in almost all contexts, is a strength. When Manny finishes an exchange, he either backs or circles out, just beyond punching range, and assesses his next offensive options. When he does this, he will “bounce” on his toes, often just twice, move his arms up-and-down slightly to increase blood flow, and identify the next opening. Again, and I can't stress this enough, it's a strength.
But in boxing, one often has to try to counter a strength. Most fighters, after being attacked by Manny, are simply thinking about trying to protect themselves from the next vicious attack. But a great fighter will understand that any contest with a warrior like Pacquiao will include pain and suffering. It just will. Boxing is a hurting sport. Thus, at that brief second when he moves back, the best alternative is to slide forward and unleash punches. I've watched a heck of a lot of boxing matches, and by the physical laws of nature, it is humanly impossible to punch when you are bouncing on your toes this way. It simply cannot be done.
Only Sugar Ray Robinson, in his prime, ever threw meaningful punches while bouncing in this manner. Likewise, I've watched film of him landing knockout punches while retreating on his toes. There is no explanation, other than saying it was Ray. And if I had not seen it myself, I would not believe it.
Each of these three opportunities involves serious risk. In fact, attempting to exploit the fractions of a second involved creates the greatest risk for Shane to be knocked out. I think that right now, only Floyd could be favored to do this. When he was at his best, Shane would have defeated Manny, and these three options might well have allowed him to knock Pacquiao out. But knowing how to do it is distinct from having the reflexes required, and Mosley is an old 39.
Enjoy the fights!
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