World Cup Group C - Fearless Prediction Thread

[MrCoffee]

England; USA; Algeria; Slovenia

MrCoffee says: England are definitely advancing, probably with 9 points. Second place is a toss-up, depending on whether the US can recover from losing to England in time to play a decent game against Slovenia next Friday. That's going to depend on whether the US backfield gets utterly destroyed by Rooney/Crouch/Defoe/Lampard/Gerrard. If we can keep it reasonably close (say, losing by two), that would be a good result.

The US/Slovenia match will decide second place in the group, and it's not going to be an easy match for the US by any means. If the US wins, we're through. If we draw or lose, Slovenia advances.

Algeria is going to ship a ton of goals and won't factor in the group. They may steal a point if the US is 0-2 after England and Slovenia.

[qazplm]

1. that analysis doesn't make sense to me

assuming we beat Slovenia, then obviously we are in, as we will beat Algeria. So far, so good.

If we lose to Slovenia, then odds are we are out, as we probably won't beat or draw England. Again, so far, so good.

But a draw with Slovenia then comes down to goal differential correct? Both teams will beat Algeria, the question is how badly. Both teams likely lose to England again the question is how badly.

So a draw leaves things hinging on the outcome of no less than four separate games and the goal differential therein.

That seems like something different than, "if we draw, Slovenia advances."

[MrCoffee]

2. You're right, I was not at all clear

I sort of nudged at it in my own obscure way, but my money is on the US going out on goal differential if we draw/lose to Slovakia. That's why I said that losing to England by 2 would be a good result for the US, and that if we are 0-2 against Algeria they could end up stealing a point with a draw. It made perfect sense in my perfectly skewed brain!

The England match will have a huge psychological effect on the US. If we can have a strong showing against England (losing by less than 3 goals would be a strong showing in my book, not giving up weak goals, maintaining some semblance of a defensive shape in the second half, etc), I think the US stands a chance of recovering from the match and playing well against Slovenia.

[qazplm]

3. I think it will be closer than you think

I think we traditionally excel in an underdog role.

I am under no illusion that we beat England, nor is a draw likely (although somewhat possible), but a match where we at one point lead and a game that England wins down the stretch is more likely to me than a match where we lose by 3 goals.

I also don't think this team is under any illusion that a bad loss to England means they can't achieve reasonable goals, which is a second round appearance. They still know that Algeria and Slovenia are very winnable games and if they win those, they are in.

Now, a loss or draw to Slovenia on top of a big loss to England COULD, I agree, lead to a let down against Algeria.

[Artie Bucco]

4. It depends

If Slovenia and Algeria tie in their game than the position for the US is a favorable one even after a loss against England. England could be cruising come game three and rest key players giving Slovenia a chance to get at least a point or three. The US relishes being in an underdog roll but at the end of the day both Algeria and Slovenia made it out of tough qualification processes in their respective regions. The US can beat both teams but neither Algeria, Slovenia or the States really run away with it in terms of players.

My call
England 7 Beats US, Algeria and Gives Slovenia a tie with their qualification assured
Slovenia 5 Beats Algeria, Ties the US and England
USA 4 Loses to England, ties Slovenia and beats algeria
Algeria 0

[rjones2818]

5. On the other hand...

While not exactly the same team...the US did finish 2nd in the Confederations Cup, beating European Chamion Spain along the way. While beating England may be difficult, it's not anywhere near out of the realm of possibilities.

[Artie Bucco]

6. One shouldn't overlook that

the US has historically done quite poor in World Cup group stages. In 2002 they qualified because of South Korea beating Portugal and in 1994 they qualified out as one of the handful of third best teams. In this recent Confederations Cup they qualified out of the group stages because of goal difference; you can't deny luck didn't play a part there.

[Iggo]

7. You know what? Fuck it. I'm taking USA over England, two-nil. (n/t)

[two gun sid]

8. England and Slovenia advance...

USA should get out of group but they won't.

[Scurrilous]

9. USA & England

:thumbsup:

[qazplm]

10. Well Mr. Coffee

I think you might have to switch to Decaf :P