Who's your Derby horse?

[ridgerunner]

I don't have a favorite this year so I'll probably end up either boxing or wheeling these four horses in a trifecta: Afleet Alex, Greater Good, High Fly, Sun King.

There are some really good horses in the race this year. It should be an interesting race.

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2005/derby_coverage/derby_entrants/

[KurtNYC]

1. I like Wilko and AA

and Afleet Alex.

Wilko legged up on grass against big fields in England, beat Afleet Alex and Sun King in the BC Juvenile and has tactical speed. The downside is he hasn't gotten the job done recently. His last loss was a good effort since he was 4 wide and 3 wide in the turns and only lost by 1/2 length on the wire. Should be a better value than AA and Belamy Road

Afleet Alex has shown good speed and looks tight with a recent 5 furlong work at 59 flat. He can pass horses and Timothy Ritchie has a nice pay rate in Stakes races ($3.02).

Not sure what to make of Belamy Road really. Andy Beyer insists that the 120 figure is legit and could if anything be higher. But why does a horse draw off by 17 lengths after never being threatened in the race unless it is juiced?

[ridgerunner]

2. I've looked at Wilko also

If I do a wheel, I may throw him in.

I hear ya about Bellamy Road. He's either a Triple Crown horse, or really juiced.

[u4ic]

6. But why does a horse draw off by 17 lengths after never being threatened"

Maybe he didn't beat much? ;-)

I couldn't see Survivalist getting much beyond 8f (I hope we see him as a turf miler) and Going Wild had a good second to Declan's Moon, but otherwise had beat up on a subpar bunch.

Personally, I don't think the 17 1/2 lengths is as impressive as the time...not being pressed, and yet sets a track record. He is huge, and I think only Bandini comes close in stature. He's got that lovely, long stride, and his pedigree screams distance both top and bottom.

I'm not touting him as the next wonderhorse...but considering his two starts this year, a deserving favourite, I think. His size, however, could do him in on the Churchill Downs track.

[aaronbees]

3. It should be a thrilling race...

I'm really high on Afleet Alex and hope he's not bet down to be the favorite (if I decide to bet). He's got a great kick, as evidenced by his Arkansas Derby win, and just shows effort each time out there. He's always been close (apart from the Rebel debacle) and on his dam's side he's got stamina. I think his trainer has been masterful with him so far -- taking him for jogs almost every day and some other unique approaches. And you just can't beat his story; he's got mad heart. I think he wins.

Wilko: always close and gutsy. I think he's improving and will run all day. I think he gets one of the Triple Crown races if no one sweeps. I think he grinds it out for second with a late rush.

Bellamy: Who really knows? He could be a superhorse, the real deal, the next great one. I'm not convinced of the Wood, yet, though it looks brilliant. He'll be tough but tested by the likes of High Limit and Spanish Chestnut up front. Strong horse, but I see him tiring to finish up third. Then again, he could win by 20.

Others with a shot to hit the board: High Limit, Bandini, Greeley's Galaxy, Noble Causeway, High Fly, Sun King, Greater Good. Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if any of them won it. It's a talented field!

[MsUSA]

4. I'm rooting for Bandini.

[GOPisEvil]

5. If it's a front-runner's day, Bellamy Road. If it's a closer's day,

Afleet Alex.

Sun King looks good, too.

And ALWAYS box the Lukas and Baffert entrants. Always, even at a small amount. ;-)

[u4ic]

7. I love Afleet Alex but I don't think tomorrow will be his day

I'm rooting for the two little guys, Wilko and High Fly. Both are all racehorse, lots of guts (as is AA)...I'd prefer to see Dettori on Wilko as he needs a more Euro style ride. High Fly just hates to lose...the distance is a concern, but he's all race horse.

I wouldn't mind seeing Bellamy Road get it, and wouldn't be surprised if a longshot like Greater Good or Flower Alley takes it. I have a hunch it'll be a longshot.

Last year, Sun King and Consolidator were my ones to watch for this year's Derby, but I'm not sure if the former has what it takes. He's sure got the right name, though. :-)

If Bandini wins it, I doubt we'll see him beyond the Belmont. The Coolmore gang own him, and will probably retire him quickly.

[two gun sid]

8. This is the best field I've seen in years....

BR was awesome in the Wood Mem. but he beat a bunch of moo cows. Let me give him his props though, he did break the great Riva Ridge's record but who knows how much the track was "groomed" that day.


My picks are:

1 Sun King
2 Afleet Alex
3 Bellamy Road
4 High Limit
5 Bandini

1,2,3, over 4,5 in a tri. Bandini will finish in the money tomorrow.

[joeybee12]

9. Any of them except George's!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[PDittie]

10. About all I've been able to do is

eliminate a few choices. I'll be boxing some combination of these:

Afleet Alex, High Fly, Bandini

along with:

Greeley's Galaxy, Wilko, Closing Argument

...but if AA's line starts dropping, I'll move off him. I try not to bet the favorites in the Derby. I don't think Bellamy Road is all that either, but if his line goes up, I'll mix him in. I also like horses that will pop at a price, so I'll watch the odds on Noble Causeway, High Limit, and Buzzard's Bay.

I'll be watching at Delta Downs in Vinton, LA, where we're taking Mom for Mother's Day.:party:

[GOPisEvil]

11. Watch for Noble Causeway #4.

I can't quite put my finger on it - just a feeling. :)

[Lauri16]

12. I'm one of those people that knows nothing

about horse racing. But i'll take shot in the dark and say Afleet Alex? :shrug:

[Horse with no Name]

13. My picks

1. Afleet Alex
2. Bellamy Road
3. Bandini
4. High Fly (spoiler)
5. Giacomo (longshot)

[nolabels]

32. Bet the house on Giacomo!

:woohoo:
What a Giacomo!
At 50-1, California horse pulls off huge Derby upset

John Scheinman, Washington Post

Sunday, May 8, 2005
At 50-1, California horse pulls off huge Derby upset

John Scheinman, Washington Post

Sunday, May 8, 2005
ttp://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/chronicle/archive/2005/05/08/SPGUKCLUPV1.DTL

[bigwillq]

14. I have Sort it Out

in my office pool. 50-1 odds. x(

[Justpat]

15. Bellamy Road

If Spanish Chestnut runs him into the ground the first half mile
he might get beat, but I don't it'll happen. Bellamy Road seems
to be a man among boys right now.

I like Afleet Alex a lot and loook for him to put in a great effort,
but don't know if he'll get the mile and a quarter. Tim Ritchy is a
good horseman and has done a great job with this horse. I'd like to
see him win it.

[Horse with no Name]

16. GREAT race

1. Giacomo 50:1
2. Closing Argument 30:1
3. Afleet Alex 9:2

Amazing payouts on this one.

[joeybee12]

18. So George's horse finished out of the money! I'm postively ecstatic!

[Lauri16]

20. How bad does it suck to be Kevin Brown

right now?!?! Bellamy Road finishes out of the money, now Brown with no wins on the season has to pitch at the stadium in front of a cranky uncle George!

[joeybee12]

25. George is always carnky---this will make him.....

....FURIOUS! :spank:

[Lauri16]

26. Very true

Maybe he'll be so cranky that he'll finally toss Kevin Brown!

dreams are a wonderful thing........:)

[joeybee12]

28. Isn't it amazing that Brown was once the highest paid player in baseball?

Hard to believe...yeah, your Yankees need to dump him. He's not a good pitcher anymore, and he's a disruptive influence.

Seen any brick walls lately, Kevin?

[PDittie]

23. $9814.50 on a $2 exacta

Sheesh.

I had 9 and 18...does that count for anything?

[PDittie]

24. CA went off at 71-1

I thought that was a terrific bet.

The fly in the ointment was, of course, Jack-a-moe, which the early prognostication said had nothing to present in this field.

That's why they call it gambling...

[Lauri16]

17. Someone's getting fired in the Bronx!

:silly:

[Justpat]

19. Zito will be fired by tomorrow morning. eom

[aaronbees]

21. wowowow!!

What a thrilling race! Those early fractions were burning!
Amazing, I thought Alex had it there but ... Giacomo? He flew in from nowhere. Just shows that anything can happen in horse racing, especially the Derby, and that's what makes it so great.

[u4ic]

22. Spanish Chestnut was the rabbit for Bandini

and finished about 7 lengths ahead of him. :rofl:

[PDittie]

27. I went back to see what they were saying about Jackamoe

before the race. Sports Illustrated:

Grey horse last won a race when he broke his maiden in October and finished a flat fourth in the Santa Anita Derby. It's hard to imagine why he's in the race, except that his owners clearly have a case of Derby Fever.

Does anyone else get the feeling they could do this job for slightly less than they're paying the idiot that wrote these words?

[Horse with no Name]

29. That's why I picked him as my longshot

See post above.
My daddy told me it was bad luck to bet against a grey horse at the track--so if there is a grey in the field--I will always bet on him along with my other picks.:)

[bigwillq]

30. Did you bet on him? (nt)

[Horse with no Name]

31. Nah--I won't do online betting

Was kicking myself though when he won,lol.
I just posted picks here in the forum for fun.
Although, this is what I read when I was picking my horses. A little better writer than the one above:

Notes: A 100-1 shot at Kentucky Derby 131, Giacomo has thus far only had one win in his career total of 7 starts. In his second start as a 2-year-old, he broke his maiden, a Santa Anita special weight allowance race in October 2004, winning by 10 lengths after coming from off the pace in his first two-turn race. What's interesting is that he is consistently around the win in all his other stakes races, never having finished lower than 4th since that maiden victory. In December, he was only a length behind champion Declan's Moon when he finished 2nd at the Hollywood Futurity Stakes-G1 in Santa Anita.

Giacomo made his 2005 debut at the $100,000 Sham Stakes in Santa Anita last February, coming up 1 1/4 lengths short of winner Going Wild to place 3rd. He followed it up by finishing 2nd to fellow top Derby contender Consolidator, who won at a stakes-record time of 1:40.11 at the $250,000 San Felipe Stakes-G2 last March. Most recently, he placed 3rd in the $750,000 Santa Anita Derby-G1, defeated by 2 lengths by winner Buzzards Bay, another top Kentucky Derby contender. Foaled on February 16, 2002, Giacomo was sired by 3-year-old Horse of the Year, Holy Bull, and has a dosage profile of 5-5-6-0-0.

[theboss]

34. Andrew Beyer is apoplectic that he won

He's actually angry in his column about the Derby. And Beyer forogt more about racing this morning than I will ever know.

[northzax]

36. where's that column?

in yesterday's Post?

on edit: never mind, found it...http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/05/08/AR2005050800688.html

[Awsi Dooger]

40. It's amusing to read Andrew Beyer describing a blistering pace

That destroyed the frontrunners. In his early years, Beyer arrogantly dismissed the notion that a quick pace altered the final running times. He steadfastly believed in his speed figures and dismissed trip handicapping. Whatever you sacrificed by running too slow at the end you made up by running faster than normal at the beginning. The final time would be the same. I'm not kidding at all, that was his hard held belief. An exact line from his '70s book "Picking Winners" is, "There is no such thing as a suicidal pace."

Still, I agree with Beyer's assessment. I looked at the Form for hours on Friday night and saw a bunch of pigs. The Beyer figures and the performances in key stakes were garbage, outside of Bellamy's two races at 3 and Afleet Alex's consistency. Normally I bet at least 10 matchups (one horse to beat another) but in this mush race I only bet 4 and felt lucky to split 2-2.

Many of my Las Vegas friends were livid after the race. They bet the final time to be under 2:02 2/5. It went to nearly a 1/4 favorite to be under that time, unprecedented for a Derby time prop. The rationale was sound. You had a rabbit guaranteeing a quick pace plus a very fast race track. The only thing that could ruin their wager was total incompetence by the Derby field as a whole down the stretch. And as Beyer pointed out, that's exactly what happened. These hedgehogs came home the final 1/4 in 27+ seconds. I'm surprised the cameramen were able to move their lenses slowly enough to keep the field in view. The final time was 2:02 3/5, just 1/5 over the betting line.

[aaronbees]

41. I'm amazed at some of the responses (not here, but elsewhere)

Beyer and his ilk who are complaining about this running of the Derby must not like a thrilling stretch drive where it seemed like almost any horse could take the roses, or the sight of that stampede jockeying for position at the first turn, or watching Spanish Chestnut successfully lure those horses to a fast-paced oblivion. There were plenty of great stories in this Kentucky Derby rendition ... if you take the time to look for them.

This race made sense on many levels ... at least in retrospect. Giacomo may have only won his maiden prior to Saturday's race, but he was always close and against good company (see his 2nd to Declan's Moon in December). He's a grinder who can actually stay the classic distance.

And unlike some of the more touted runners, he was actually running consistently, not being babied along with just a couple pre-Derby starts to prop up the hype and preserve their blueblood stud status.

As much as I love Afllet Alex, I hope Giacomo sweeps the whole Crown, and then the so-called experts will be left with the tatters of their little Beyer math games and forumulas about who's a real horse. :)
}(

[northzax]

42. they want a hero

without one, racing is doomed to insignifigance on the major stages. Look at the attention Smarty Jones got, people watched the races who would never watch a race on tV, they need the money for the tracks. And racing, much like the olympics (funny enough) is basically a one shot deal now, you only get one year to build a following, and Giacomo ain't gonna cut it (maybe he will, who knows?) but in a weak field, the writers saw a real 3crown chance, something the sport needs desperatly.

yes, I know, you can continue to race, but name the last horse who won the Derby who raced more than once as a four year old.

anyone?

[aaronbees]

44. hmmmm...

I think it's Funny Cide ... who is, lucky for race fans, a gelding. But apart from him ... I think it's Real Quiet who last raced at four.

I agree that racing needs heroes. Heck, Smarty and Funny both got me back into the game and interested in thoroughbred racing again (I followed it a lot in the 80s, early 80s, and fondly remember John Henry kicking down the Arlington grass course like a demon.) I think, though, that the slams against this year's race are misguided and we really can't say what kind of horse we have here in Giacomo or the rest of the field. Alex still has game, I think. Honestly, racing needs better marketing, and owners who race their horses longer. A Triple Crown winner may be a hero, but if we have one, you'll never again see him or her at four or even probably beyond a Belmont win. Part of the problem, too, is the breeding for speed, not endurance, and brittle horses. Visa just gave up the sponsorship for the Crown ... a real shame because I think they did a great job.

[ridgerunner]

33. Did y'all see the superfecta payout?

$864,000 for a one dollar bet. I know it set a Derby record, as did the $133,000 trifecta.

[northzax]

35. yeah, but did anyone pick it?

that's an interesting question.

[PDittie]

37. Eleven tickets nationwide

That's how the payout is calculated, by the number of winning tickets.

And that opinion of Beyer's is remarkable.

Look:

Giacomo outfinished them all -- and he's not even a stretch runner. In his three California races this season, he did not pass a single horse in the stretch. It would be more accurate to say he outstaggered his rivals. His final time of 2 minutes 2.75 seconds translated into a Beyer Speed Figure of 100, the worst for the race in at least 20 years. (Two years ago a horse named Buddy Gil earned a figure of 100 in the Derby -- and finished sixth.)

He goes on to blame the entire field's poor performance on the strengthened drug testing in place this year.

If that is accurate then there will be lots more longshots and paydays in the big races to come (presuming, naturally, that they keep the same rules for the Preakness and Belmont).

[northzax]

38. yeah, racing has some issues

no doubt, with the difference in testing between Churchill Downs and everyone else.

I wonder why no one really trusts the results?

[Justpat]

39. Churchill now has the same testing for milkshakes

as everyone else. The horses are tested before the race.

In NY, the horses now have to go to a special detention barn
six hourse before the race and be given their lasix by the state
vet.

KY used to be the absolute worst with drug rules. They allowed just
about anything on race day and allowed banamine four hours before
the race. It was a joke. Most of us who are breeders shy away from
any stallions that races solely in KY as you can be sure that their
performance there was not accurate account of their true ability.
No one wants to breed to some horse that basically an allowance
horse without drugs and a worldbeater with milkshakes.

[UrbScotty]

43. BANDINI!!

Hey, 19th out of 20 ain't bad.