MITOFSKY responded to my email. He apparently thinks we're PARANOID

[Straight Shooter]

My original letter to him, cc'd to Keith Olbermann:

"Dear Mr. Mitofsky:

I would like to point you to a well-written article which counters the "exit poll theory":

http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/news/editorial/10258...

Quote from article:

"Since exit polls historically have been quite accurate, and the differences as likely to have been in one candidate's favor as the other's, we're confronted with the question of what caused them. Given the indefensible withholding of the full exit-poll data by Edison Media Research, Mitofsky International, the Associated Press and various networks, we can only hazard guesses based on what was available election night. The obvious speculation, alluded to above, is that the exit samples were decidedly nonrandom."

Now a quote from Keith Olbermann's 11/24/04 blog:

"In an unsolicited e-mail to Countdown, Warren Mitofsky wrote that he was 'struck by the misinformation' in our program. He heads Mitofsky International, which along with Edison Media Research, conducted the election night exit polling for the television networks and the Associated Press. I referred to the variance among the early and late exit polls, and the voting. Insisting 'there were no early exit polls' released by his company or Edison, Mr. Mitofsky wrote 'the early release came from unauthorized leaks to bloggers who posted misinformation.'"

Just release the data, Mr. Mitofsky. The rationalizations for the discrepancies between exit polls in battleground vs. nonbattleground states are making the American electorate uneasy.

Mr. Mitofsky's slightly sarcastic response:

"There is nothing being hidden by us. We are preparing a report to the people we work for. Hopefully it will be finished shortly and it will be made public. I am not beholden to any political party. Nor do I believe the exit polls will quiet your fears about the system, whether or not we release the raw data. They are not useful for that purpose.

warren mitofsky"

My subsequent response:

"Dear Mr. Mitofsky:

I did not say I had "fears," I said the American electorate is uneasy.

Regarding usefulness of the exit polls, perhaps they should not be used in battleground states, period. That is where the egregious discrepancies have arisen, and that issue has yet to be addressed to any appreciable level of comfort.

I will rely upon the interpretation of exit poll data and the explanation for discrepancies therein to objective statisticians, not to those whose livelihoods depend on faulty mechanisms of gathering, interpreting, or disseminating data.

Good day, sir.

[Winamericaback]

1. Very good!

I was cheering for you at the last paragraph..

Just another "I cannot be wrong therfore nobody needs to check my data" assholes.

[Straight Shooter]

2. I didn't care for his dismissive attitude.

And you're absolutely right. "I cannot be wrong" seems to be his mantra.

[electropop]

3. Man, that's cold!

Your last paragraph says it all. Did he collect accurate data, and if so, why not proudly show it off? Unless he's being strongarmed to keep it secret.

[Straight Shooter]

4. Objectivity requires a freezer burn approach

He isn't taking our concerns seriously.

I believe he did collect accurate data, as witnessed by the closeness of exit poll data to final results in nonbattleground states. I don't think he's being strongarmed. Instead, I think he wants to play this game because TPTB are on his side.

[Patsy Stone]

5. He responded to mine also.

I have it posted in the other thread. You may have already seen it.

He used the word "morons" in mine. A little snippy if you ask me.

[Straight Shooter]

6. He used the word "morons"?

What thread, the one about Olbermann getting an email from him?

That's totally uncalled for.

:wtf:

[Patsy Stone]

7. yepper

morons.

[Straight Shooter]

9. I found your post. Mind-boggling.

"Dear Mr. *:
Your comment does not fit with what I said. What I said was that mid-day exit polls are not the final result of an exit poll. And that no one should expect exit polls in mid-day to be the same as the final results. Do you think the score at half time of a football game should be the same as the final score? Furthermore, the leaked numbers were not our best estimates as of the time they were leaked. The leakers had no idea what they were passing along and the bloggers had no idea what they were getting. EVERYONE DID NOT MISUNDERSTAND OUR NUMBERS. The proof of what I am saying is that neither Edison/Mitofsky nor any of the members made any mistakes in projecting winners AFTER the polls closed based on these same exit polls. Only the morons who leaked the erroneous numbers and the bloggers were misled. What is it that makes you think these same people would know how to interpret raw numbers?
warren mitofsky"


After I correct him about my gender, what else would you like me to ask him based on this response??

Ask him if it's reasonable to assume that a minor league football team that's getting its butt kicked at halftime by a major league football team should be expected to win the game.

Notice he consistently fails to address the issue of exit poll accuracy in nonbattleground states.

[Patsy Stone]

13. Here's my final, sent e-mail to close the loop between threads.

Dear Mr. Mitofsky,

First of all, I am a woman. It’s Ms. *.

I want to thank you for responding so swiftly to my concerns. My curiosity stems from the statement that the exit poll data from 4 p.m., is often referred to as an indicator of the projected outcome. Several news organizations were writing their “Kerry won” pieces, based on the polls. No, I would never assume that the score at half-time would be the score at the end of the game, but, sometimes it is.

If there is no conflict, if there is no misunderstanding, I request again that you please release the data from the mid-day and the 4 p.m. polls sooner rather than later. That’s all. If you won’t, or can’t release it, then please explain why. There are people that are trying to interpret the results, statistically explain the “anomalies” and trying to understand how people could have been so wrong in their assumptions. The increase in Bush voters in Florida alone has caused a good deal of confusion. As you and I know, if Pres. Bush had been up by the final margin in Florida all along, it never would have been a “swing state”.

I’m sure that Dr. Steven Freeman, and the people at UC Berkeley and CalTech/MIT would be more than pleased to receive this information as it is the missing piece to their statistical analysis. Please help us close this chapter.

My e-mail was intended as a plea to you to help us put all of this behind us. As you’ve seen from the last couple of days in the Ukraine, exit polls can cause an election to be deemed “illegitimate” and spark mass demonstrations in the streets: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6374820 /.

I am not sure whether you are referring to me, personally, as a moron, or those you work with, but I don’t think that we need that kind of name-calling here. I am merely a concerned citizen, trying to assure myself and others that we do indeed have free and fair elections. I don’t think that that is frivolous or “moronic”, do you?

[bemis12]

23. The letter was very clear

that he was calling those who leaked the info "morons". No need to infer that he called us morons.

[Shopaholic]

8. This was his reply to me:

There is nothing being hidden by us. We are preparing a report to the people we work for. Hopefully it will be finished shortly and it will be made public. I am not beholden to any political party. Nor do I believe the exit polls will quiet your fears about the system, whether or not we release the raw data. They are not useful for that purpose.
warren mitofsky

[Straight Shooter]

11. So it's a canned response.

He's sending out the same message.

Goes to show how much he cares about our concerns. He's a loser. Anyone care to update Keith?

[kk897]

18. I'm kind of reading this a different way:

"Nor do I believe the exit polls will quiet your fears about the system, whether or not we release the raw data. They are not useful for that purpose."

To me it sounds as if he's saying, "we could release this data but it wouldn't strengthen your case."

Of course, his using the word "morons" doesn't strengthen *my* case here. But I just wonder if he's saying, "Duh! Don't be a moron! Of course the system sucks! But my numbers are correct and don't have anything to do with it!"

[Verve]

19. I read this paragraph slightly differently

"Nor do I believe the exit polls will quiet your fears about the system,"
Do you think he may be saying that the raw data will not quiet us (conspiracy theorists)down because the raw data is out of whack and does look suspicious.

Another point on this, how long does it take to compile a report? The election was nearly 3 weeks ago. Do you think they needed more time to come up with a valid explanation of why their data doesn't make sense?

[WhoWantsToBeOccupied]

24. Yes, this is what he's saying

I get a strong wink-wink-nudge-nudge sense from his message that he's:

1) telling us he's not allowed to give us the data (because he doesn't own it);
2) telling us the final data is in line with the early data, not the official tabulated results;
3) trying to sound negative because he's not in a position to come out and say, "Yeah, this election was likely stolen."

[WhoWantsToBeOccupied]

26. His livelihood; his employees' livelihood; lawsuits

Put yourself in his shoes for a moment:

• He probably has a family to worry about
  
• He has to worry about his employees and their families
  
• He has to worry about his reputation and firm
  
• He is probably legally unable to release data to us; doing so could trigger lawsuits
  

Sending cryptic messages of support is the best we should expect unless and until the media outlets give him permission to release the data. In fact, I seem to recall a message from him at least a week ago asking us to do exactly that.

[Fortunato]

28. Yep

... the one thing I am continually taught in life is that there's three sides -- my side, the other guy's side, and the truth, which lies somewhere in-between.

Maybe Mitofsky is snippy. Maybe he's hiding something. Maybe he's guilty of some partial coverup.

But all the other reasons listed here are valid too; and he also no doubt knows things that we do not, so our perspective is based on partial information.

Put yourself in the guy's shoes. He's being dumped on by his colleagues, he's being dumped on by the news media (who paid all that money and got less-than-stellar results), and now he's having his credentials and competence challenged and is being tacitly accused of less-than-kosher motivations by average joes off the street he's never even met before, who wouldn't know him if they saw him.

It reminds me to simply keep my peace, speak calmly, don't jump to conclusions, and keep my ears wide open. Parse what the guy says, sure, but give him a break.

[Roger_Otip]

29. paranoid means your fears have no substance

when he says realeasing the data won't quiet your fears about the system he's not necessarily saying those fears are baseless - they're based on a lot more than just the exit polls.

[Straight Shooter]

32. I agree on the definition of "paranoid"

Mitofsky, however, is using a patronizing phrase, "quiet your fears." It's as if he is assuming we are like children, with our fears in a little uproar because we think something is hiding under our beds.

This man has been in business a long time, I presume. He needs to communicate in a manner which is unequivocal. I don't want to have to read his mind.

Even if the problems arise from more than the exit polls, he has put himself into an untenable position because the fact remains that whether it was "morons" who leaked information or bloggers who misinterpreted the information, the exit poll data was correct in all but the most critical of states and became increasingly out of the realm of plausibility as the nightmare of November 2 unfolded.

That implausible exit poll scenario cannot be explained away with patronizing, obfuscating, dismissive retorts by Mitofsky. See TruthIsAll's excellent post: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=75423&mesg_id=75423

[karlrschneider]

21. Maybe, but if it would NOT help "our" case, why not just release it, then?

That doesn't make much sense...
:eyes:

[tanyev]

10. What does he think about US politicians

questioning the results of the election in the Ukraine based on the fact that the result didn't match the exit polls? Hmmmm?

[understandinglife]

12. He's on the spot; his little empire is being threatened...

....and he knows it.

We need to keep him in the glare of disclosure until he turns over his data.

If he had nothing to hide, he would have already released it.

And, the thing to keep hammering is that the discrepancies were predominately in the battleground states; how inconvenient FOR HIM.

Thanks

[Shalom]

14. Straight Shooter Hits Mis-Fitsky Right In the Butt : @|@

STRAIGHT SHOOTER: GOOD SHOT !!

YOU NAILED THE MIS-FITSKY RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF HIS BUTT !

[jamboi]

15. Zogby called for pollster to open his books and investigation. t/n

[tex-wyo-dem]

16. A football score is a horrible analogy!

In no way can you make that comparison to a properly run statistical poll. The raw statistics of a 2pm exit poll should not be that much different from that of the 4pm or 6pm, etc. if the pollsters are doing proper sampling (and it doesn't sound like he's claiming improper sampling to me).

And why, oh why, are the exit polls so wrong for some states (especially the all important FL, OH & PA) and spot on for other states? Is there sampling from state to state that inconsistent? If it is, they are incompetent.

[Straight Shooter]

20. [e-mail]

Write him. Tell him that.

We need to keep poking our figurative index finger in his chest and saying, "You aren't addressing the main issue, the discrepancy between battleground states and nonbattleground states."

Mitofsky would be cut to ribbons by any competent prosecutor if he were to be put on the witness stand and asked to defend his case.

[Hobbes199]

22. Unless football teams can lose points...

In some of the final exit polls, there were only marginal increases in respondants yet wide differences in results. In others, Kerry's raw numbers actually went down from the earlier results.

I call a flagrant foul.

[nolabels]

17. Who needs PARANOID

We got BFEE

[GetTheRightVote]

25. Calling Mr. Mitofisky, you are wanted on the phone ..........

you like Mr. Bush should state simply that you are wrong then apology to the American People for your bad decisions and obvious lack of knowledge on the topic. Your citizenship has been taken away for your mistaken understanding of what democracy means.

----- never again will I trust this government not to throw my vote away, never again will I trust these elected puppets to protect my vote, never again will I not march on lost rights, such as my vote.

I am going to march all over downtown Wash, D.C. this weekend and go on and on about the stolen election, even if I am alone it will make me feel so much better about everything .... I can't wait to see the looks on people's faces when I walk by with my sign. I am strong, I am an American, I have rights no matter what they say, I will be free, even if it is just me, I will march.

[Eloriel]

27. Just a little kick

:kick:

[jdog]

30. Is there really a march on Washington this weekend?

I tell you, I'm so mad, i live in Denver but if I could get a flight I guarantee I would be there.

[bleever]

31. Mitofsky? Or is it, Bitoffsky? n/t

[althecat]

33. For what it is worth... I think our campaign to get the exit polls out is

starting to bear fruit. There is a another thread on this in GD with another DUer also getting a response from mitofsky. If we keep this up then they will release the data eventually. I can't see how they can keep this up. Especially with Colin Powell spouting forth about stolen elections in the Ukraine. It is getting all too obvious that these morans are a bunch of hypcritical weasels.



:)

[althecat]

34. Here's the other thread on this

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x1387040

[Patsy Stone]

35. OK, that's ME!

I've been looking for this all day! Thanks for locating that! Apologies for having posted it in the wrong place.

Also, there was another thread about this earlier here:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

Which may have started the whole thing. I went to respond to this and ended up in Late Breaking News. Then, as I said, I was looking for this one.

OK, I'll shut up now. :)

[althecat]

36. Don't shut up Patsy... say as much as you want...

I loved your email to Mitofsky. And have replied your GD thread...

Plus of course saying more stuff is the way you keep your threads (and memes) alive around here. :)

[Patsy Stone]

37. Thx

gobble gobble

[Straight Shooter]

38. Wouldn't it be nice if we had the same media-entrancing clout as Buckhead?

But then, we all know it was never Buckhead to begin with, don't we? Bucky is just a Pav-Rovian dog.

Mitofsky likes football analogies? Here's a cheer I remember from high school: "Hit 'em again, hit 'em again, harder, harder!"

Blue Devils. State champs.

Don't look back, bush, something's gaining.