We will win Ohio by 37,700 votes in tonight's count-- updated calc.

[Merlin]

I took the current margins in each of the counties from the official OH website:
http://election.sos.state.oh.us/results/RaceDetail.aspx?race=PP

I then divided these margins by the % of precincts reporting for each county to determine the projected final margin.

Result will be, when all said and done, approximately:

Updated for official 1:45 am numbers:

Kerry 2,506,900
Bush 2,469,200
---------------
Margin +37,700

I know of no reason why this will not be reasonably accurate.

Of course it's a victory with .5% of the vote, so that means they will have to wait for the absentees and provisionals to be counted which will take 2 weeks.

[lightbulb]

1. Merlin, you are a lighthouse flickering through the storm

My oh my, I hope you are correct.

[mconvente]

2. alright!!

some good news - keep the faith!!

[dave502d]

3. Merlin, you are great.thank for hope.

[Sweet_Montreal]

4. I hope...

sorry guys, but tonight I am so happy to be canadian! wish you are! :)

[fwiff]

5. Thanks, Merlin.

[NYC]

6. I sincerely hope you are correct.

[otohara]

7. Crossing My Fingers You're Right

I'd love to see FOX & MSRNC eat shit too!

[NYC Liberal]

8. Oh man, I hope so.

And I hope it comes in after Bush gives his victory speech. SLAP IN THE FUCKING FACE!!

[madmax]

9. MSNBC reporting Ohio polls are not closed

people still in line and don't think Kerry is going to concede.

[Princess Turandot]

23. USAToday has a brief article saying that people are still voting in

ohio, at least at Kenyon College; they expect to be open until 2AM because one of their 2 voting machines has broken down.

[4_Legs_Good]

10. Good! Just make sure Kerry doesn't concede tonight!

Keep hope alive.

I'm depressed beyond recognition, but I still don't think we've lost Ohio.

david

[Kilroy003]

11. Possible

Lucas
Kerry, John F. Democratic 77,375 61.74%
Bush, George W. Republican 47,666 38.03%
Badnarik, Michael 166 0.13%
Peroutka, Michael Anthony 126 0.10%
Cobb, David Keith-WI 0 0.00%
Schriner, Joe -WI 0 0.00%
Parker, John T.-WI 0 0.00%
Duncan, Richard A.-WI 0 0.00%
Harris, James -WI 0 0.00%
Zych, Thomas F.-WI 0 0.00%
Precincts Reporting: 35.56% 125,333


Trend will net another 50K Kerry votes.

http://election.sos.state.oh.us/results/RaceDetail.aspx?race=PP

[Kilroy003]

17. Here's another net of approx 30K.

Cuyahoga
Kerry, John F. Democratic 373,242 65.77%
Bush, George W. Republican 190,984 33.66%
Peroutka, Michael Anthony 1,642 0.29%
Badnarik, Michael 1,599 0.28%
Cobb, David Keith-WI 0 0.00%
Schriner, Joe -WI 0 0.00%
Parker, John T.-WI 0 0.00%
Duncan, Richard A.-WI 0 0.00%
Harris, James -WI 0 0.00%
Zych, Thomas F.-WI 0 0.00%
Precincts Reporting: 87.26% 567,467


Maybe more?

[Kilroy003]

22. Here's where Kerry needs to beg God to help him.

Hamilton
Bush, George W. Republican 126,888 51.28%
Kerry, John F. Democratic 119,426 48.26%
Badnarik, Michael 632 0.26%
Peroutka, Michael Anthony 508 0.21%
Cobb, David Keith-WI 0 0.00%
Duncan, Richard A.-WI 0 0.00%
Schriner, Joe -WI 0 0.00%
Parker, John T.-WI 0 0.00%
Harris, James -WI 0 0.00%
Zych, Thomas F.-WI 0 0.00%
Precincts Reporting: 57.35% 247,454

[Kilroy003]

24. Another 10K or so here.

Summit
Kerry, John F. Democratic 96,220 57.39%
Bush, George W. Republican 70,657 42.14%
Badnarik, Michael 442 0.26%
Peroutka, Michael Anthony 335 0.20%
Cobb, David Keith-WI 0 0.00%
Schriner, Joe -WI 0 0.00%
Parker, John T.-WI 0 0.00%
Duncan, Richard A.-WI 0 0.00%
Harris, James -WI 0 0.00%
Zych, Thomas F.-WI 0 0.00%
Precincts Reporting: 57.68% 167,654

[Bucky]

12. You have Bush's final total at 2.3 mil. CSPAN has him @ 2.4mil already

Your math is off.

[Silverhair]

13. You have an error. The precincts do not have equal populations.

The populations of the different precincts can vary greatly. You need to get the population of each precinct and factor that in.

[Jack Schitt]

14. Merlin...

you just gave me hope that I was losing. THANK YOU!!!

[pa28]

15. I think you are correct.

Shame on the doomsayers tonight who are calling this before all the votes are even counted.

[Dead Presidents]

16. Goldfish + Mountian Dew + 9 Volt battery =...

Thank you! I couldnt stand the thought of Bush being president!

[GoblinToe]

18. ....

For the love of country I hope you're right!!

CNN is hammering the final nails in Kerry's coffin...makes me sick to watch that shit.

OHIO OHIO OHIO OHIO OHIO OHIO OHIO OHIO OHIO OHIO OHIO!!!

[EndElectoral]

19. How the hell is Bush ahead in Hamilton county where Cincinnatii is?

[OhioDem2004]

21. Bible Thumper Land

SW Ohio is strongly GOP

[Merlin]

35. Bush only up by 7,500 in Hamilton Co. at 1:45 am

Hamilton County - 1:45 am official data
Bush 126,900
Kerry 119,400
-------------
Margin -7,500

[bigpathpaul]

20. There are other threads on this. Can we consolidate? Anyone? n/t

[Hatalles]

25. kick

[LionelEhutz]

26. Then explain Bush 2,524,131 and Kerry 2,390, 888 90% precincts

reporting.

That margin of approximately 135K for Bush doesn't budge despite all of the votes coming from Dem counties. Something seems fishy.

[snoochie]

28. Does that 10% include provisional ballots?

?

[1984ever]

27. please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please

please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please be true...

[Chicago Democrat]

29. Im gonna move to Canada if Bush wins

[snoochie]

30. 250,000 votes left to be counted according to Cahill

Just putting that out there

[DemFromMem]

32. I thought there were more

If 91% are counted and more than 5,000,000 votes cast, wouldn't that make it likely there were about 500,000 votes left?

[geomon666]

31. *'s Margin is slipping

Kerry gaining according to AAR.

[Merlin]

33. Based on 1:45 am official Ohio numbers, Kerry's final margin grows to 38k

Projected Final

Kerry 2,506,900
Bush 2,469,200
---------------
Margin 37,700

[mom cat]

34. I love you!

[digno dave]

36. I don't misunderstand it but i'll take it!!!

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

37. I just summed up the numbers from the ohio website and they don't add up

Their statewide totals are as follows:
Bush 2,655,975
Kerry 2,500,899

but when I add up all of the individual counties I get this:
Bush 3,051,613
Kerry 2,105,261

What gives?

[AgadorSparticus]

38. i could kiss you, merlin!! you're a gem!!!! thanks for the numbers.

[Roland99]

39. 13% of Cuyahoga still to be counted...2 - 1 in favor of Kerry

[kungfugrip]

40. No...that site is BS now. Check out CNN.

Cuyahoga has been at 87% for about 2 hours now.

[EndElectoral]

41. Cuyahoga - 2000 vs 2004

Cuyahoga
Bush 184689 – 35.1%
Gore 341479 – 63.9%

Cuyahoga (on my last check before going to bed)
Bush 215624 = 33.75%
Kerry 433262 = 66.25%

Kerry improved not only the percentage, but was gainign close to 90,000 votes while Bush was only gaining 30,000. something is wrong here. Lucas County showed the same trend.

I am going to look at which counties dramtically went for Bush as compared to the 2000 election. Those counties need looked at for tampering.

[EndElectoral]

42. Other Big Counties in Ohio

Along with Cayahonga I looked at the most populous counties comparing 2000 and 2004 and in every instance (except Butler), Kerry gained significant amounts of votes over Gore's totals in relations to Dubya.

The rural counties must have gone hog wild. I wonder if there may be tampering in some of these smaller counties.

Franklin
Bush 232640 Bush 193026
Kerry 273303 Gore 196117

Stark
Bush 89859 Bush 76451
Kerry 92295 Gore 73417

Summitt
Bush 116184 Bush 94640
Kerry 152897 Gore 116754

Butler
Bush 106735 Bush 83680
Kerry 54185 Gore 44661

Hamilton
Bush 209808 Bush 197339
Kerry 182610 Gore 153227