Nov 22, 2004
by Margie Burns
As things stand right now, it seems unlikely that Mr. Bush won the 2004 presidential election.
There are two major categories of problems. One affects the electoral vote. Release of the final exit polls conducted in all states shows a pattern that cannot be explained away. The exit polls were released (not to the general public) at 4:00 p.m. on Election Day by polling consultants Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International.
These are the genuine exit polls for all 50 states and the District of Columbia, taken before the outcome was known in any particular state. These are not the ?exit polls? that organizations including CNN went back and retroactively changed after the election, making them conform more to vote tallies.
The exit poll results are laid out straightforwardly in a very clear list (tabulation). Compared to the vote tallies given the public, they seem amazing. Contrary to results in every election for the past twenty years, the variance between exit polls the published vote tally was more than two points--in other words a swing of 4% or 5% or more to Bush, in 33 of 51 jurisdictions. Regardless of which candidate won in those states, a big variance, always in the same direction, allegedly occurred in every single exit poll in all of them.
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Immediate investigation is most urgent in four states that the swing from exit poll to published vote tally also swung from Kerry to Bush: Ohio, Florida, New Mexico, and Iowa. The many problems already reported from counties and precincts in all four states more than corroborate the suggestion raised by the exit poll tabulation. These four states also add up to 59 electoral votes, more than enough to have tilted the election outcome.
The Electoral College is not the whole story. Questions have arisen that affect the popular vote count even in ?safe? states. Stay tuned.
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