David Shuster thinks we are 'dark Internet conspiracy theorists'

[Chimpanzee]

The ground war (David Shuster)

I've been running some of the vote totals from this election compared to the presidential election four years ago. And they underscore why the Democratic party, as far as the political "ground war" is concerned, is in even worse shape than you might think.

Compared to four years ago, President Bush picked up 9.5 million votes. John Kerry, compared to Al Gore, picked up just under 5 million.

But here are some other important numbers:

Ralph Nader in 2000: 2.89 million votes
Ralph Nader in 2004: 400,706 votes.
Youth vote 18-29 for Gore: 9 million
Youth vote 18-29 for Kerry: 11 million

The polling indicated that most of Nader's erosion was John Kerry's gain. And as you can see above, Kerry picked up 2 million votes in the 18-29 category. So, that's 4 million of the 5 million vote pick-up for Kerry.

In other words, if you rule out the Nader voters and younger voters, everybody else gave John Kerry a net gain of just 1 million votes (compared to Al Gore in 2000.) President Bush received about the same raw vote total among 18-29 year olds as he did four years ago. So, excluding that group, the president picked up 9.5 million new votes. Again, when you are talking about voters 30 and over... it's 9.5 million new votes for Bush... 1 million non-Nader voters for Kerry.

That is astounding. Remember, Kerry was running against an incumbent president with an approval rating below 50%.

Kerry's anemic raw vote number is even more astounding when you look at the powerful "anybody but Bush" sentiment in the Democratic party this year... and when you consider the massive amount of money those new Democratic organizations spent on get out the vote efforts. "America Coming Together" and the "Media Fund" spent nearly $200 million. That was twice as much as the Democratic National Committee spent on getting out the vote.

It means at least one of the following:

The $200 million "get out of the vote" money pumped in to this election by ACT and the Media Fund was totally ineffective or wasteful.
The dark Internet conspiracy theorists are correct and something massively fraudulent happened on election day. (The evidence does not support that.)
John Kerry was a worse candidate than Al Gore... but it was masked by (1) ACT and Media Fund efforts that made the most of a bad hand;
President Bush made significant in-roads among moderates and "security moms."
The Republican "get out the vote effort" was far more effective and efficient than the democrats.
I do not agree with 1 and 2. I'm unsure about 3. But I'm definitely inclined to go with 4, and 5.

The exit polling indicates that President Bush closed the gender gap in this election, meaning that he ran almost even with Kerry among women voters. But putting that aside, you can see a fundamental difference in the way the Republican party organized it's "get out the vote efforts" and the way it was done by the Democrats. The Republican organization was "bottom up." It relied heavily on local churches, religious organizations, civic groups, and tens of thousands of "precinct captains" to come up with lists and contacts for possible new Bush voters. The Democratic efforts were more "top down." A huge amount of money was spent on sending paid canvassers into communities some had never been to before.

The irony is that about a year and a half ago, Democrats had the making of a cutting edge and impressive "bottom-up" organization. It was known as the Internet-savvy "Dean campaign." The candidate, of course, proved unworthy of what his energetic Internet supporters had built. But remember, the organization included "meet-ups" in cities and towns all across the country, local e-mail lists, and passionate local leaders who knew their neighbors.

I don't know anybody who seriously believes Howard Dean would have been a better match against President Bush than John Kerry. But the Democratic party needs a Dean type of grass roots/Internet organization if the party is serious about winning the next "ground war." This election clearly established that money from the top down can't compete with organization from the "bottom up." The political circumstances were aligned for John Kerry and the Democrats to make huge inroads over the raw vote numbers Al Gore racked up four years ago. The Democrats failed. And at the moment, only the Republican party, with its religious organizations and tens of thousands of "precinct captains" seems to realize that "all politics is local." And in this election, among voters 30 and older, John Kerry and the Democratic party gained only enough ground to bury themselves.

Write me at [e-mail]

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

1. Ghandi said:

"First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win"

So, we are at the laughing stage.

[andyhappy]

5. wow

thats really cool.

ya learn something everyday on the DU!

[hippiegranny]

2. media whore

>The dark Internet conspiracy theorists are correct and something massively fraudulent happened on election day. (The evidence does not support that.) <

what evidence? the evidence that you whores refuse to acknowledge or share with the public? hmmm?

[Straight Shooter]

3. David Shuster needs to stop being such a Pollyanna

He wants to see the bright side of things, so that makes us "dark." I'm sure the people of color appreciate that. /sarcasm off

Shuster is being foolishly optimistic if he believes bush won fair and square. And that makes him a Pollyanna.

[LSparkle]

4. Figures he used to work at Faux

Maybe he should go back there.

[Pithy Cherub]

6. No David is overtly conspiring to have us

join his deep undercover menacing conspiracy to believe he is a - gasp, journalist with an important opinion. As a 'journalist'his color is yellow for being frightened of his 'peers' and fraudulently presenting facts that support his weighty position a top a gallon of melting ice cream...

[HereSince1628]

7. The point is pretty clear, the electorate didn't change much

the past four years of partisan conflict has been largely a stalemate.

In this ice-jam of polar proportions, a few percent here and there is EVERYTHING when measuring glacial movement.

[papau]

8. If youth vote = Nader vote, the math is 5 mi less 2= 3 m other, not 1 m

but they do not teach math in school these days!

:-)

And God forbid we discuss the real vote being different that the fraud that is the vote that does not agree with the exit polls - and does not agree with votes below Pres and Sen - and does agree with EVOTE versus paper where the many many states that were spot on to the exit polls were not the evote locations - and the curious fact that all exit poll error was in favor of a larger Bush vote - not one exception!

But we will not talk about these things!

:toast:

:-)

[Mister K]

12. Unfortunately, he must have been one of those children..

who were left behind

[KurtNYC]

9. Hey Shuster, ever heard of Karl Rove?

I don't know anybody who seriously believes Howard Dean would have been a better match against President Bush than John Kerry.

Rove called Howard Dean the "democratic Reagan." And Rove's results speak for themselves.


More on "Why Rove Fears Dean: He Might Be The 'Democratic Reagan'":

http://www.australianpolitics.com/news/2003/11/03-11-13b.shtml

[KoKo]

10. I think it's time we give up on MSNBC. Olberman goes on vacation and

Shuster comes in and puts this out which is only to make light of all the work we folks in our own Democratic Party did on the ground. I didn't work for ACT or GOTV and neither did many other DU'ers. We worked with our own party and the former Dean supporters were a huge help in updating voter rolls and organizing all over the country, including here in NC.

I find Shuster's analysis that Bush did a better job with "Precinct Captains" and working from the ground up ridiculous. It sounds like he's trying to demoralize all of us who worked so hard, the way the press demoralized Dean.

Remember when CNN had Dobbs doing all the "Outsourcing" stories? Maybe he wanted to do it, but then just before the election Dobbs turned. Many of us who sent him e-mails in support tuned him out because he was pushing Bush and Iraq all the time.

I think it's time to stop sending e-mails in support of these Cable folks. When they get so many e-mails they go out of their way to pull to the right so they don't seem "biased." They have to work for a living, there's no way they are going to go against a call from their bosses when Rove has put the screws in.

This is a clear case of them allowing Olberman to do what he wants knowing Olberman is going on vacation will get thousands of e-mails and his ratings up and then bringing Shuster "in for the kill." It's all about "demoralization" of Democrats.

Sad...but that's what I think it's come.

[goodboy]

11. Kiss my ass, David...nt