The Political Plot Thickens
January 22, 2008 11:03 AM ET | Barone, Michael | Permanent Link
My U.S. News column this week is a reminiscence of past campaigns and election nights. But we had quite an election night (and afternoon) last Saturday, as Mitt Romney notched up a big victory and Hillary Clinton a narrow victory in the Nevada caucuses and John McCain squeaked out a 33-to-30-percent victory in the South Carolina primary. I was at Fox News headquarters in New York, with the Decision Desk, which called the Romney victory quickly (there was no doubt whatsoever) and the Clinton victory pretty quickly (she carried Clark County and lost in most of the rest of the state, but Clark County has 71 percent of the state's population). Fox called McCain the winner in South Carolina at 9:17 eastern time (by my watch), before the other networks. It could have been called much earlier except for the fact that the voting machines in Horry County (Myrtle Beach area) weren't working and its totals (it was one of McCain's two best counties in the 2000 primary against George W. Bush) weren't being registered either in the exit poll or in the tabulated vote.
Where are the two parties' races going from here? The Democrats seem headed toward more acrimonious division, while the Republicans seem headed toward something more like not entirely unacrimonious closure.
The Democrats. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are now in a rock 'em, sock 'em battle. The astute liberal columnist Michael Tomasky characterizes Clinton's victory as "downright ugly." A push poll in Nevada four times identified Clinton's opponent as "Barack Hussein Obama"—imagine the cries of bigotry that would ensue if a Republican had done that! Bill Clinton was in Las Vegas charging the Obama forces with unfair tactics, and pro-Clinton forces were prosecuting a lawsuit against the caucuses held at nine casino worksites where it was assumed that the 60,000-strong Culinary Workers Union would pitch votes to its endorsed candidate, Obama. Turned out the lawsuit wasn't necessary and the Culinary Workers couldn't deliver: Seven of the nine casino voting sites went for Clinton over Obama.
The reason: ethnic politics. Previous contests didn't have appreciable numbers of black, Latino, and Jewish voters. The Nevada Democratic caucuses did (the fact that many blacks and Latinos could vote was Nevadans' strongest argument to the national Democrats for having an early caucus there). The entrance poll showed that blacks favored Obama over Clinton 83 to 14 percent, while Hispanics favored Clinton over Obama by 64 to 26 percent and Jews favored Clinton over Obama by 67 to 25 percent. Blacks and Hispanics were 15 percent of the sample, Jews 5 percent (enough to be statistically significant given the large number of respondents). We saw the pattern familiar from the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary results, with Clinton favored by older and more downscale voters and Obama favored by younger and more upscale voters. But the ethnic split has important implications for Florida on January 29 (where the Democrats are not supposed to compete but are on the ballot) and some of the big February 5 primary states (New York, New Jersey, Illinois, and California). Obama seems likely to have a huge advantage in southern states with large black percentages in the Democratic primary; that's why he's leading by solid margins in polls for the January 26 South Carolina contest, where blacks will account for about 50 percent of Democratic primary voters. And the ethnic split may not make much difference in New York and New Jersey, where Clinton is heavily favored, and in Illinois, where Obama is. But consider California. There are many more Latino than black voters in the California Democratic primary. And there could well be more Jewish voters than black voters in the California Democratic primary. California is the big prize of the February 5 contests, and it has been assumed that its upscale/young electorate favors Obama. But Latino and Jewish voters could pitch it toward Clinton.
http://www.usnews.com/blogs/barone/2008/1/22/the-political-plot-thickens.html