Informational Post: NH Primary - Breakdown of Voting by County, Breakdown by Town

[HughMoran]

It seems to me that if there were irregularities in the voting in the NH primary of 1-8-08, then they will show up when comparing the data from the counties. If anomalies were seen in any particular county, then you would want to look closer at the individual towns within each county. If there are no obvious discrepancies in the data, then a massive coordinated effort would be required to skew the election, or a consistent "flipping" error would have to occur in the voting machines that was somehow distributed evenly throughout the many towns that use the optiscan machines. This error would somehow have to flip only Obama and Hillary votes - which would seem highly improbable. The obvious anomalies that I see when looking at the data are 1) college towns that went overwhelmingly for Obama (I highlighted a couple) and Salem, NH - Hillary got a disproportionate number of votes in that very business oriented town on the MA/NH border. Bang for the buck? I would hand count Salem NH. For those interested in vote "flipping", look at the image of the optiscan ballot at the bottom of this post :tinfoilhat:











As a special bonus for the tin-foil types, I have included the NH ballot - you will notice that Hillary is 4th from the top, Obama is 4th from the bottom (not counting "write in") :tinfoilhat: I kind of like "O. Savior" for president myself :rofl:



Edit: Note that data and sample ballot were obtained from the NH Secretary of State website - here -> http://www.sos.nh.gov/presprim2008/index.htm

[jasmine621]

1. You sure know how to hurt a guy. Thanks!

;-)

[HughMoran]

2. Too much to read?

:D It took me all afternoon to compile! :blush:

[sandnsea]

4. 1300 votes?

Is that the difference there?

[HughMoran]

8. Do you mean in Salem?

If so, yes.

[sandnsea]

11. See, there's my problem

Why steal that town? If there were many like that, it would be different. But that isn't enough to flip an election.

That's the exact kind of "evidence" people say exists in Ohio. They talk about stickers on ballots, and you go check the county and it's 5 ballots because there were stray marks on them.

I appreciate your efforts, but it's not really helpful to find 1300 votes when Obama needs 10,000 or more. There's probably some other explanation, something unique to that town that we just don't know.

[ORDagnabbit]

3. nicely done. any break down between hand and machine counts?

[Historic NY]

5. Thats my guy O. Savior.............

because the rate were going, beating each other up here another Repuke is going to steal the election. I'm turning to the Democratic Savior, he must be in good with God with a name like that.

http://minorcandidates.com/savior.php

[HughMoran]

14. O. Savior got 29 votes

He's a Savior to some ;)

[davidwparker]

6. "I would hand count Salem NH" - Please. Let's not allow some supreme

court inject a bogus "equal protection" argment a la * v. Gore in 2000.

Count the entire state if there is a recount.

[HughMoran]

7. Very expensive - ususally you pick the low-hanging fruit first

There is no reason to recount the whole state unless a significant change in the total is likely to occur. I suggested Salem because it was disproportionately for Clinton and they use optiscan machines - a good place to start IMHO.

[K Gardner]

9. I applaud you for the work you've done here. I must admit, i have no idea what

I'm looking at, but I'm trying !

[HughMoran]

10. It's every vote tabulated for Clinton, Obama & Edwards in every town in NH

This is directly from the NH Secretary of State website. This is it - every vote cast on Tuesday (for the top three Dem candidates.) I plotted the vote so that anomalies would be easier to see.

Here is the website where I condensed & plotted the data from -> http://www.sos.nh.gov/presprim2008/index.htm

[K Gardner]

12. OK. Now, can you tell me what you - personally - see? Anything

that lends itself to call for a recount? If you don't want to comment, I'll understand ! Thanks again for doing this :yourock:

[HughMoran]

13. I inserted minimal commentary in the O/P

I don't want to take a position on the data one way or the other. I posted it here to help draw a "picture" for all who are discussing this recently popular topic. I saw a few "odd" points and highlighted those, beyond that I would have to have my statistician friend import the Excel file into an analysis program to see if any meaningful information can be extracted from the data.

[Ellipsis]

15. Thanks! K&R ...one more for the greatest.

[HughMoran]

16. Thanks

I guess since I didn't offer an opinion on the data, there was little to comment on. I thought that a visual look at the voting might help to display the enormity of the issue and show that a simple explanation (say vote "flipping") could not possibly work when looking at the data. I may have the data analyzed to see if there are any statistical anomalies, but so far there seems to be little interest in looking at the data.

[Maven]

17. K/R

[kansasblue]

18. Under the Diebold system aren't all the vote loaded to one...

central tabulator and, if there is fraud, then it is thought to be done at this point. The central tabulator code affecting all totals ...or a hacker making adjustments to the all the totals at the central tabulator.

Thanks for the great info but I encourage you to rethink the need for a " massive coordinated effort would be required to skew the election". One hacker... or one coder. Thats all.

k b

[HughMoran]

19. Each town records it's total

If they did not match the official results on the NH SoS page, it would be way too easy to verify this. Here is more on the process from one of our own who works the polling stations at one of the optiscan locations -> http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=491147&mesg_id=491240