Prediction: The ballots that are recounted will nearly match the machine counts.

[mhatrw]

And this fact will be used to prop up the reliability of a inherently flawed and insecure system of vote counting.

Do I suspect election fraud in the NH primary? Yes. The pre-election polls, the initial exit polls and the hand counted municipalities said one thing while the machine counted municipalities said something else. Having said that, there are other very reasonable explanations. The pre-elections polls may have been incorrectly modeled, the initial exit polls could have been pegged to these incorrectly modeled polls, the Obama youth vote could have stayed home, and/or the Clinton GOTV effort could simply trumped Obama's especially when you consider how much easier it is to target working women for GOTV than young voters and independents.

From my understanding, the vote counting process in New Hampshire is not centralized. Therefore, if any election fraud occurred, it would probably be targeted to a few large municipalities. And considering the climate of suspicion about election results nationally and the ease of getting a recount in New Hampshire, fraudulent paper ballots may indeed have been part of any election fraud from the start or, if not, may be introduced into whatever pool of ballots are finally recounted.

Of course, in theory, a manual recount is always a good thing. It doesn't cost much and clearly makes election fraud more difficult and risky to undertake. But that's just the theory. In reality, we are engaged in a highly charged propaganda battle between the corporations that assure us that their secret vote counting procedures are perfectly accurate and every informed citizen who seeks grassroots electoral reform.

We have already seen the opening salvos in this propaganda battle. Those who wish to keep controlling our entire democratic process are already demanding that we "stop complaining" if this single recount doesn't uncover significant electoral fraud. Of course, we will still have every informed citizen and all logic on our side regardless of the outcome of any specific recount. The question is whether this will be enough to overcome the corporate media and political establishment framing of election reform as an insignificant, fringe, loser-driven non-issue.

[jlake]

1. So, you are already saying the recount will show the vote was correct...

but the re-count was rigged too...... this is why this gets framed as a fringe issue..... when people cannot understand facts.

[mhatrw]

4. No, what I am saying is that either the vote count was accurate OR

the recount was, is or will be rigged. And that's just a prediction. A third, very real, possibility is that the recount will show some significant discrepancies.

Why does this make election reform a fringe issue?

[Maven]

14. The recount will not be rigged.

At some point you have to trust something otherwise you're just ignoring reality.

That'll be the next thing we hear if the results are verified: "The recount was rigged!"

[mhatrw]

21. I trust public hand counts of ballots that have been protected by a strict chain of custody.

Why should I trust anything else?

[jlake]

17. If one claims the recount will be rigged before it is even conducted, then that person

compromises their legitimacy.
The recound very well may show malfunctions/fraud....if it does, then there you go.
If it does not, then you have to have evidence it was rigged if that is your claim.

[Junkdrawer]

18. Or they remember Ohio 2004...

One or the other.

[Bumblebee]

2. and it won't uncover any fraud because there wasn't any -- but

next time there is, and GOP is the winner of that, thanks to you, guys, we won't be listened to. Why did you even want a stupid recount if you are not going to believe it? Sickens me totally -- and you are doing Obama NO FAVORS, either nationally or on this list. Enough said.

[mhatrw]

5. Your attitude is exactly what I'm talking about.

Election reform is an issue in EVERY election, not just when your favored candidate loses.

[EFerrari]

7. You have no idea what happened in NH and making the claim

that you do makes me not want to listen to you.

And, for the brazillionth time, this isn't about Obama. It's about our general election.

[K Gardner]

19. A "stupid recount" sickens you? And you think this is about Obama?

Enough said, indeed.

[Enrique]

3. is this really true?

Those who wish to keep controlling our entire democratic process are already demanding that we "stop complaining" if this single recount doesn't uncover significant electoral fraud.

Who has said this?

[stillcool]

6. This is the first vote of the primary season...

I do not see how questioning results in this election...regardless of the out-come, can not benefit all the elections to follow. It's been almost two years since the 2006 election and there are still results from that election that have not been resolved. It is 4 days till Michigan.

JANUARY 2008

* January 3: Iowa (caucuses)
* January 5: Wyoming (GOP caucuses)
* January 8: New Hampshire (primary)
* January 15: Michigan
* January 19: Nevada (precinct caucuses), South Carolina (R primary)
* January 26: South Carolina (D primary)
* January 29: Florida

FEBRUARY 2008

* February 1: Maine (R)
* February 5: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado (caucuses), Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho (D), Illinois, Kansas (D), Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico (D), New York, North Dakota (caucuses), Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah
* February 9: Louisiana, Kansas (R)
* February 10: Maine (D caucuses)
* February 12: District of Columbia, Maryland, Virginia
* February 19: Hawaii (D), Washington, Wisconsin

MARCH 2008

* March 4: Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas, Vermont
* March 8: Wyoming (D)
* March 11: Mississippi

APRIL 2008

* April 22: Pennsylvania

MAY 2008

* May 6: Indiana, North Carolina
* May 13: Nebraska (primary), West Virginia
* May 20: Kentucky, Oregon
* May 27: Idaho (R)

JUNE 2008

* June 3: Montana, New Mexico (R), South Dakota

[EFerrari]

8. I think you've nailed it at every point.

What is the alternative? Without at least a recount attempt, there will be no investigation.

Even if it only proceeds to the point where NH realizes the chain of custody is tainted, that would be something anyway.

[mhatrw]

9. Agreed. A recount is better than no recount.

My point is that we cannot peg any hopes for electoral reform on the assumption that this recount will expose electoral fraud. We need to keep educating, keep fighting and keep making our points clearly and carefully with sufficient respect for the overwhelming resources of the opponents of fair and transparent elections.

[EFerrari]

10. Yes. At least this time, we go into it knowing that.

We've learned a lot since 2004.

[Bonobo]

11. A prediction based upon nothing is called "Faith", "Religion" or "Superstition". NT

[mhatrw]

12. Or simply a wild ass guess.

Guilty as charged.

[EFerrari]

13. Except that it comports in part with the concerns expressed by

DFNH, doesn't it?

ETA: And also with our experience in Cuyahoga Co.,OH 2004.

[Junkdrawer]

15. History says you're right... with this addition ...

Years later, when the national media is long gone, a few scapegoats will be prosecuted for the rigged recount.

The Corporate Media will yawn and give it two sentences on page 14.

[sam kane]

16. I would put $ on that prediction too.

If someone would fill me in on the government vault that those ballots have been hidden in, I would feel differently, but for now I just assume that LSH Associates has them, so they now match the official results just like the exit polls match the official results. Sigh.

[JackRiddler]

20. The recount has to be of all votes -

and it has to be accompanied by an investigation.

A sample obviously can be fixed, as happened in 2004 in Ohio with the "randomly selected" precincts that were not randomly selected (leading to convictions, but who remembers?).

And no, this isn't about the Clintons damn it - my first theory would be an outside party fixing the election on behalf of a given narrative. My second theory would be computer glitch... And none of it matters. Count ALL votes & investigate...