Transcript: Live Analysis: New Hampshire Primary Returns (election blog starting @ 8PM 1-8-08)

[HughMoran]

Live Analysis: New Hampshire Primary Returns

Robert G. Kaiser
Washington Post Associate Editor
Tuesday, January 8, 2008; 8:00 PM

Washington Post associate editor Robert G. Kaiser was online Tuesday, Jan. 8 at 8 p.m. ET to break down the returns from the New Hampshire primaries as they're announced and examine what they mean for the candidates in the 2008 presidential primaries.
The transcript follows.

____________________

Robert G. Kaiser: Good evening. The early questions in my queue reflect the excitement of this fascinating moment in American history. You can feel it too in the newsroom at The Washington Post. We don't know exactly what is happening, but we know something big is in the air. I look forward to spending the next couple of hours with your questions and comments. Please send them in!

The full exit poll shows a very close race on the Democratic side -- a one-point Obama lead. I have had so many bad experiences with exit polls in my four decades in this business that I am not going to invest heavily in this number. What it tells us is, we are going to have an interesting evening!

The exit polls will also allow us to tell you some interesting things about the demographics of tonight's votes. For example, we already see evidence on the Republican side of how the immigration issue is very powerful, and helps Mitt Romney. There are a lot of these tidbits in the poll.

... more here -> http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/discussion/2008/01/07/DI2008010702131.html?nav=hcmodule

I found this live blog that was initiated at 8PM on Tuesday 1-8-08. The interesting thing is that he reports the unadjusted exit-polls for the NH primary. He later mentions that the polls will be adjusted based on actual results. He also mentions this little interesting tidbit that I thought was interesting:

Seattle: Are the exit polls breaking down the support for Obama/Hillary? Are younger voters turning out like they did in Iowa? Are women still backing Obama over Hillary?

Robert G. Kaiser: One of the problems with exit polls is that the proportions of voters they show from various demographic categories are never accurate. Through the evening the exit poll numbers will be adjusted to reflect the evidence provided by the hard returns.

That said, the exit poll shows that 11 percent of the voters polled were in the 18-24 age group. They favored Obama by 65 percent to 19 percent against Clinton.

I don't know this guy so don't shoot me if he's some RW nut-job. Read the live blog - it's fun reading how the questions evolve as the results start coming in - very interesting!

[rumpel]

1. I for one won't shoot

thanks, and come here more often, will ya? :)

[HughMoran]

2. Thanks for refraining

I appreciate the offer, but I find arguing without all of the facts to be excessively stressful. I do have access to a top-notch statistician who would gladly crunch numbers if needed. Trying to find significance based on numbers released to the public without knowing all of the details is not something I can do. I'm way too "hard fact" oriented to do that. I just stumbled across this blog and thought it was an in interesting bit of parallel conversation to what Chris Matthews said extemporaneously on MSNBC. Since Matthews seemed to have a bias and was perhaps confusing the polls versus exit polls, I thought this info was important. I'm sure others have read it without comment.

[creeksneakers2]

8. Thanks for posting that

Opinions here are being swayed by a misinterpretation of what Matthews said. Bradblog claims Matthews said exit polls showed Obama ahead by 8%. He didn't. WP announced a 1% lead for Obama at 8PM. That's the real score from the time and it entirely consistent with what Matthews said.

[truckin]

3. Thanks for sharing that. It's very interesting. n/t

[HughMoran]

4. I thought so

:D

[HughMoran]

5. kick

information

[EFerrari]

6. Book marking.

Thanks.

[HughMoran]

7. n/p

kick