Research Paper puts odds at 1 in 250 Million that Exit Polls were wrong

[LiberalEsto]

Below is a link to a Research Paper, conducted by an expert Researcher, on the extremely low possibility of the inaccuracy of the Exit polls that indicated John Kerry would win the recent Presidential Election.

Dr. Steven Freeman of the Univ. of Pennsylvania has recently released a research paper that puts the chance of exit poll statistical anomalies being off, to the degree that reported Computer voting totals suggest, at a mere 1 in 250 Million.

In "The Unexplained Exit Poll Discrepancy," Dr. Steven F. Freeman, who has a PH. D from MIT and whose expertise lies in Research Methods, states :

"As much as we can say in social science that something is impossible, it is impossible that the discrepancies between predicted and actual vote counts in the three critical battleground states of the 2004 election could have been due to chance or random error."

The odds of those exit poll statistical anomalies occurring by chance are 250,000,000 to one.

The 12 page Research paper can be read in it's entirety at :

http://www.ilcaonline.org/freeman.pdf

A brief article on this research paper can be found on The Washington Monthly magazine at :

http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2004_11/005147.php

Professor Freeman concludes the research paper with this:

"Systematic fraud or mistabulation is a premature conclusion, but the election's unexplained exit poll discrepancies make it an unavoidable hypothesis, one that is the responsibility of the media, academia, polling agencies, and the public to investigate."

[idiosyncratic]

1. This is something that should be sent out Internationally

as well as to every media outlet in the U.S.

It was mentioned on Countdown last night by Keith Olbermann, but we just have to have more eyes looking at this information.

[shelley806]

6. There was a post the other day that did just that; I'll see if I can find

the link. I sent it out to more than 50 TV, newspapers, etc.

[wlubin]

2. Does anyone know tallied vote vs the exit polls looked for every state,

and not just the battle ground states as was shown in the Washington Monthly article?

[chelaque liberal]

3. We are the media. Kick.

[pacalo]

4. If this administration has nothing to fear,

why don't they demand that the polling consortium release their data for examination or a full investigation into the tallies & allegations of fraud?

Wouldn't that put this matter to rest? One half of the country would like to know if we still have a democracy.

[osaMABUSh]

5. Check out the Exit vs 'Actual' votes

Quick observation. Here is the order of "cheating":

NH 9.5 - Bush won NH 2000 so no reason not to cheat big here
OH 6.7 - again Bush won in 2000 and big number of EVs
PA 6.5 - Bush campaigned in PA more than any other state so apparently Rove thought PA was critical to Bush
MN 6.5 - not sure why they cheated big time here
FLA 4.9 - again Bush won in 2000 and big number of EVs