Cliff Arnebeck's response to Farhad Manjoo article:

[mod mom]

(Mods, I have permission to print the entire response from Cliff Arnebeck. )
***********

I was counsel of record in litigation over both the 2000 Ohio Supreme Court election and the 2004 Ohio Presidential election.

I write in response to the Salon Magazine article challenging Robert Kennedy, Jr.'s Rolling Stone Magazine article which asserts that the 2004 Presidential election was stolen.

In his response to RFK Farhad Manjoo correctly points out that in the 2000 election, Democratic state supreme court candidate Alice Resnick got more votes than Al Gore in dozens of counties -- and by 126,000 more votes throughout the state.

However, this was a truly exceptional situation, and those familiar with it would not argue that it disproves Kennedy’s thesis.

As part of their plan to pack the Ohio courts with business friendly justices, the Ohio and US Chambers of Commerce in year 2000 spent a total of some $7 million of illegal corporate money attacking Justice Resnick.

Because of litigation we filed, a hearing was held by the Ohio Elections Commission. The hearing was held on the very day before the 2000 election. At that hearing the Ohio Elections Commission found probable cause that the Chambers’ ads contained false statements about Justice Resnick and that their conduct violated practically every election law on the books.

This spectacular decision the day before election day was front page news in every newspaper in the state on election day.

Most voters had seen the ads attacking Democrat Resnick. The Ohio Elections Commission ruling that the ads were a lie made the $7 million of attack advertising backfire, with the effect that Resnick got more votes than Gore. (For information about our chamber of commerce litigation go to http://www.ohiohonestelections.org/index.php?p=chamber-of-commerce).

Manjoo also fails to note the fact that weeks before election day, Gore had pulled all resources and
campaign staff out of Ohio.

This exception proves the rule, correctly stated by Congressman Kucinich and Robert Kennedy, that the top of the ticket normally draws more votes than down ticket races. Furthermore, in the twelve suspect Ohio counties in the 2004 election, the anomaly of Kerry reportedly underperforming the ticket extends down to races for county commissioner, sheriff, and such lesser offices, where these Democratic candidates lost in these predominantly Republican counties.

Cliff Arnebeck

[Botany]

1. go cliff!

One of the good ones.

[IndyOp]

2. Thanks ModMom -- We need a two-day workshop with all of the

principals in this debate. RFK, Fitrakie & Wasserman, Arnebeck, Richard Hayes Phillips, Mark Crispin Miller, Manjoo, Elizabeth Liddle....

It is exciting to me to see this being played out in public...

Yes, it would be lovely if it were an open-and-shut case, but that is not realistic.

So, this - what we have going on right now - is fine. ;)

[mod mom]

3. Will be working on this after the Palast/Fitrakis/Wasserman event on June

20 (of course Arnebeck will also be there) . Look for some big names together early in the fall. Of course, I will keep DU posted.

BTW..Greg Palast's book was released today!

[Columbus]

7. An early opportunity

This might be an opportunity:


Cleveland State University’s Center for Election Integrity
and
The League of Women Voters of Cleveland Educational Fund
invite you to participate in

Lessons Learned from Ohio’s Primary:
Making November a Success

Friday, June 9, 2006
Maxine Goodman Levin College of Urban Affairs
Atrium

7:30 – 8 am Registration and Light Breakfast
8 – 8:15 Introduction
• Abigail Horn, Asst Director, Center for Election Integrity, CSU
8:15 – 9:30 Election Day Observers
• Norman Robbins, Greater Cleveland Voter Coalition
• Sherece Gray, Outreach Coordinator, League of Women Voters of Cleveland Educational Fund.
• Chris Nance, Office of Rep. Stephanie Tubbs Jones
• Ron Olsen, CASE Adopt-a-BOE
Question and Answers
Moderator: Abigail Horn
9:30 – 10:30 Election Officials’ Analysis
• Michael Vu, Director
Cuyahoga County Board of Elections
• Bryan C. Williams, Director
Summit County Board of Elections
• Matt Damschroder, Director
Franklin County Board of Elections
Question and Answers
Moderator: Jean Robejsek, League of Women Voters, Cleveland.
10:30 – 10:45 Coffee Break
10:45 – 11:45 Usability and Reliability of New Voting Technology
• Hugh Shannon, Cuyahoga County
• Expert on DRE and/or Optical Scan (invited)
Question and Answers
Moderator: Dora Rose
11:45 – 12 From Here Forward: What are Ohio’s Next Steps?
Recap of today’s recommendations, Review Panel process
• Judge R. Adrian, Chair of Independent Review Panel

[mod mom]

4. Here is a video of Arnebeck questioning Clinton Curtis under oath:

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=8112825559202389150&q=Clinton+Curtis

[Kurovski]

5. K&R

Keep coming back at Mr. Manjoo, folks. We're listening.

[OnTheOtherHand]

6. odd that Arnebeck doesn't mention the other 2000 SC race

in which Tim Black -- who lost by a slightly larger percentage margin than Gore did, and received around 320,000 fewer votes -- nevertheless got more votes than Gore in 40 of the 88 counties. (Remember, the claim is that 12 counties are suspicious because Connally outdrew Kerry in those 12 counties.)

I have to wonder, how many exceptions does one need proving a rule before the rule isn't proven any more?

[mod mom]

8. Cliff's response:

The illegal $7 million campaign by the chambers of commerce was a package seeking to support the reelection of Republican Justice Cook and defeat Democratic candidate Judge Black; and defeat Democratic Justice Resnick and elect Republican Judge O'Donnell. The litigation produced a finding that all the chambers' ads were illegal to the benefit of both Democratic candidates. Resnick, however, as the primary target was the prim nary beneficiary.

To place this illegal spending by the chamber into context, the candidates were voluntarily limiting their total spending to $550,000 each. And, because Gore had withdrawn from Ohio, the Supreme Court races were the leading races in Ohio in terms of paid advertising and news coverage due to the intense litigation immediately preceding the election.

[OnTheOtherHand]

10. OK, but there is a general principle here

Some races are more strongly partisan than others, and of course presidential races (or even upticket statewide races) tend to be more partisan than non-partisan judicial races. That tends to mean that Dem presidential candidates are going to do best relative to Dem judicial candidates in Democratic counties, and that they will do worst in Republican counties. Of course, the fewer votes the Dem judicial candidate gets compared to the presidential candidate, the fewer counties s/he will get more votes in -- and it could be 0 if the gap is wide enough. But any such counties are likely (or more likely) to be Republican counties.

[Bill Bored]

12. Oh boy, it's 2004/5 all over again!

Well, as the first DUer (I think) to point out that:

a) Connally's opponent Moyer outpolled Shrub in only 4 counties compared to Connally's outpolling Kerry in 12 counties, IIRC and

b) that Connally's vote margin over Kerry in her 12 counties exceeded Moyers' margin over Bush in his 4 counties by about 150,000 votes and

b) that the Connally situation was not unique after all since there were those other races where judges did better than presidential candidates in 2000,

I'm still glad to hear an alternative explanation from Arnebeck that might indicate that there was more than just the non-partisan race effect going on.

[roseBudd]

17. Connally outperformed Kerry by the largest margin in heavily GOP counties

that were as geographically distant as they could possibly be from the dem county where she actually presides as a municipal court judge.

We never heard of her in SW Ohio. Not one peep. So Bush voters had to choose a black liberal municipal court judge from Cleveland to be the Supreme Court justice. Instead of the GOP incumbent, who was endorsed by both papers and did have yard signs in the same yards as Bush/Cheney signs. And this happened to the greatest extent in 3 contiguous counties of which 2 of those counties have documented other very suspicous activities. It's called extenuating circumstances. Get it.

[OnTheOtherHand]

18. think about it -- your statements point in opposite directions

"We never heard of her in SW Ohio. Not one peep. So Bush voters had to choose a black liberal municipal court judge from Cleveland to be the Supreme Court justice."

Bush voters never heard of her either -- so how would they know that she was a black liberal judge from Cleveland?

As I've said, if one race is less polarized than the other -- which is almost inevitable for a top-of-ticket race vs. a downticket race without partisan listings -- then the Republican counties are where you would expect the obscure judicial candidate to stand out the most.

(By the way, if somehow Connally had outstripped Kerry in Cuyahoga, instead of Warren, you would find that even more suspicious. And you would be right.)

I'm not arguing, I'm reporting: there is a big hole in this argument. I dunno what happened in Warren, I only know that you can't use the Connally results to measure it.

[mod mom]

19. Here is what Ron Baiman has to say: Clearly a Crime was Committed!

Rosebud, In case your missed this from the Fitrakis responds post, Dr Ron Baiman, a highly respected expert has to say:

) Manjoo’s efforts to dismiss what he calls the “purported rural vote shift” is even more outlandish. As Kennedy points out he doesn’t seem to understand the difference between a popular incumbent who earned more votes statewide than Gore in 2000 and a former Republican judge from Cincinnati who got a “favored son” boost in that region; and an unknown, under funded, very liberal judge from Cleveland, who got 24% less votes than Kerry statewide, inexplicably getting more votes that Kerry in 12 of the most conservative counties (judging by their Bush vote shares) in Ohio!

Moreover, these same 12 counties just happen to be among the only 14 (out of 88 counties) where Bush’s vote is larger than Moyer’s (the incumbent conservative judge) by more than 43%. Moreover, the amount of “excess Bush” vote (more than Bush’s state average of 21% more than Moyer) just happens to roughly match both by county and for entire state the “lost Kerry” vote (what Kerry would have gotten if he had received his state average of 32% more votes than Connally in these counties) without any overall substitution from Moyer to Connally (Moyer’s vote is larger than the state average and Connally’s is smaller than the state average in all but one of these 12 counties).

Farhad, do you understand how absolutely remarkable such a series of “coincidences” is?!!

I challenge you or anyone else to provide a plausible non-vote shifting explanation for these patterns.

Note that the Bush to Moyer ratio is independent of the Kerry to Connally ratio when there is no substitution between Moyer and Connally. It is simply impossible to understand why, out of all the 88 counties, 9 out of 14 cases where Bush does extraordinarily well relative to Moyer, just happen to be in the same counties where Connally does extraordinarily well relative to Kerry?!!!! And it is even more impossible to understand why the relative magnitudes of these impossible undercounts for Kerry and over counts for Bush should so closely match!!!!

I would take this evidence to a trial. Clearly a crime was committed in Ohio. There is simply no other explanation for these patterns other than vote shifting. The only thing we don’t know is who did it and how. And exactly this kind of information is necessary to get serious electoral reform - that you claim to support.


http://www.baiman.blogspot.com /
Ron Baiman. Loyola University & Univ. of Chicago
Baiman's bio:

Ron Baiman is currently a Policy Research Project Development Analyst at Loyola University in Chicago, as well as an visiting assistant professor at the University of Chicago. He holds a Ph.D. in Econonomics from The New School for Social Research.

[OnTheOtherHand]

20. well, then, read my response to Baiman

In this context, "highly respected expert" seems to mean "someone I would really like to believe." Baiman is an economist, folks, not an election analyst. He is entitled to an opinion, but he is out of field.

I would have regarded Walter Mebane as a highly regarded expert in election analysis. I wonder what he thinks? Oh, wait, the DNC posted his analyses last summer. Never mind.

[autorank]

9. I guess Manjoo didn't do his homework.

Down ballot excesses are always in need of explanation. In the case of 2004, there was no explanation. In 2000, there was.

I wonder why Salon/Manjoo (a single entity now) missed that point? Could it be there is some sort of
"filter" that is informed by Salon's bias? Generous explanation but it will have to do for now.

We'll see how this plays out but Arnebeck mounts a major counter attack and restores the down ballot anomaly in the public debate. Of course, people in Ohio know all about this dramatic event. What a gem!

Thank you Cliff Arnebeck for everything you do!!!

Patriots Day, Rally, Lafayette Park - DC Across from WH

[roseBudd]

11. He is right, Manjoo does not live in OH so he doesn't know, everyone

has heard of Resnick. No one in SW OH has heard of Connally. I wanted to vote for her, I had only heard her name once, and I thought I would remember it when I voted, but I drew a blank.

Not one yard sign, not one bumper sticker, not one television ad. Warren Countians did not accidentally pull her name out of their asses.

[OnTheOtherHand]

13. you seem to be missing the point

The less well known she is, the more likely it is that her performance in Republican counties will stand out. If her race had been higher-profile, or the presidential race lower-profile, then she probably would have outdrawn Kerry in more counties -- not fewer.

It's not as if she came anywhere near winning Warren County -- she lost by over 22 points. It's just that Kerry did even worse.

I'm not vouching for the count in these counties, just explaining why this argument hasn't convinced quants. If someone has good evidence for the rule that presidential candidates should outdraw judicial candidates in every single county, please present it. So far, it really boils down to assumptions about what should have happened.

[roseBudd]

14. Connally's performance in Warren implies that Bush voters also voted for

her, an unknown black liberal municipal court judge from Cleveland. OH geography, you couldn't get further away.

Manjoo uses the example of Resnick outpolling Gore to prove Connaly could to. Resnick is known, Connally is not. Ergo not comparable.

Outpolling a top ticket in a down ticket is not expected since many voters stop voting in races they know nothing about.

The counties that Connaly outpolled Kerry at the highest rate were all contiguou SW OH counties, one of which excluded the press from observing tabulation, another which had stickers on optiscan ballots. These facts add to the extreme suspicion that surrounds the numbers from SW OH.


I live in Ohio. Arnebeck lives in Ohio. I have personal experience and knowledge of the OH election in 2000 and 2004. I bet you don't.

As DUer from Warren County lizzieforkerry told me two days after the phony terror alert that wasn't serious enough to include an elementary school within 100 yards, no way Kerry did no better in Warren County than Gore.

In politics there is a reason why name recognition is considered important.

[mod mom]

15. I was waiting for your reply. Well done.

It is easy for some outside Ohio to quickly dismiss what those of us witnessed on election day. When you know the terrain, the people and the politics, it is much easier to understand how the theft occurred. Well said, Rosebud!

[OnTheOtherHand]

16. still missing the point

If you would give some indication of registering my argument, perhaps we could make some progress.

No one claimed that the Resnick race was just like the Connally race -- obviously it wasn't. That's (inter alia) why Connally didn't beat Kerry in 81 counties.

Yes, we all know that there is dropoff in downticket races. That is clearly visible in the Black race; Black still beat Gore in 40 counties.

Yes, but Kerry beat Connally by more votes than Gore beat Black. Right, and that is why Connally didn't even beat Kerry in 40 counties.

Nevertheless, so far, no one has presented a coherent argument why Connally shouldn't have beaten Kerry in any counties. And no one has presented an example of an election in which each presidential candidate did beat the corresponding judicial candidate in every county. So what on earth are we talking about? How do you prove a rule without a single example?